New Hampshire turnout is ‘absolutely huge’

January 8, 2008

At the Iowa caucuses last week, turnout not only exceeded everyone’s expectations, but voter participation even broke caucus records. Will see similar excitement in New Hampshire? Apparently, yes.

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is “absolutely huge” — and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

“Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots,” Scanlan said. “We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly.”

Scanlan said that the Secretary of State’s office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).
According to Scanlan, the ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary.

In previous cycles, there’s been a large after-work rush, so the “absolutely huge” description may be even more impressive by the time the polls closed.

MSNBC spoke with Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan who added, “The towns that are calling now are experiencing heavy turnout, and see their piles of ballots starting to drop at a rate faster than they’re comfortable with.”

The Politico added that the state is expected to break primary records.

Of course, the obvious question is: who’s winning?

In previous years, we’d be getting some exit polling numbers right about now. This year, as Mark Blumenthal explained, that’s not going to happen.

Looking for leaked exit poll results from New Hampshire? Sorry to disappoint, but whatever their merits, we are unlikely to see any such leaked results until moments before the polls close.

In past years, the network consortium that conducts the exit polls distributed mid-day estimates and tabulations to hundreds of journalists that would inevitably leak. In 2006, however, the networks adopted a new policy that restricted access to a small number of analysts in a “quarantine room” for most of the day and did not release the results to the networks and subscriber news organizations until just before the polls closed (information that did ultimately leak to blogs). As far as I know, that process will remain in place today.

I guess we’re out of luck.

There are some rumors…

Just heard Tucker Carlson say on MSNBC that the McCain people think independents are breaking almost 50-50 Obama/McCain. (Slightly more to Obama, but not much more.) I’m a little skeptical. But if true–and, even if it is, remember it’s still pretty early in the day–that would be great news for McCain, and slightly below expectations for Obama, though probably not enough of a drop-off to really hurt him.

Also, keep in mind that if turnout among independents surges well beyond expectations, even splitting them 50-50 with McCain will yield Obama a huge absolute number of votes. So on some level the McCain-Obama split matters a lot less than overall independent turnout.

…but that doesn’t tell us much. It looks like we’ll actually have to wait.

Wait. You’re kidding, right?

Who ever heard of having to wait until an election is over before knowing the results?

  • That’s as well. Although I’m as eager to know as anyone, I’m glad to wait for the one opinion poll that should actually matter: the vote itself. So I will wait, if impatiently.

  • Voter turnout is the worst nightmare of the Republican party. It means the young people are voting, and since young people are generally liberal, they are scard shitless of young people who actually vote. If this trend continues, we’re looking at the extinction event that many Republicans have talked about. I wish I could be a fly on the wall at the RNC, because they’re plenty worried right now.

    BTW, I don’t mind waiting for election results. Good on them for keeping the exit polling data.

  • What could we do while waiting for the result (I mean besides our jobs)?

    We could read a position paper. We could mail a donation. We could go talk to someone we don’t normally talk to like an immigrant or a small business owner. We could volunteer to work for a candidate or a charity. What else?

  • Well, I hope RacerX is right. It would be good to keep the Democratic campaign going so we keep turning out the young voters…

    … right?

    Well, I can hope.

    I hope the MSM focuses on the disparagy of voting in the Democrats favor.

  • “Of course, the obvious question is: who’s winning?”

    I’d opine that the even more obvious question is why are the voters so motivated to get out and vote? Those wanting change are not limited to the netroots and those frequenting blogs; this nation wants nothing more to do with Bushism. It does matter who gets into the White House and voters are figuring out that their votes do count. Democracy does work when people actually participate. We’ll figure out just how they want to make change when the vote tallies are in.

  • Bush’s disasterous presidency could have at least one positive consequence, if he inspires younger and historically disenfranchised voters to the polls through their sheer antipathy for the man and his war.

  • Also remember that NH voters are significantly right of center, as a rule, so if even if NH independents break roughly 50-50 for Obama, when extrapolated to the country as a whole, it would mean a severe ass-kicking for the GOP.

  • RacerX, from your lips to the spaghetti monster’s ears! 😀

    And the results should be kept silent! That is why people don’t vote late in the day…they feel their vote is a wasted vote. It should be law that results for any state don’t come in until ALL states polling places close.

  • “…independents are breaking almost 50-50 Obama/McCain. (Slightly more to Obama, but not much more.) I’m a little skeptical. But if true–and, even if it is, remember it’s still pretty early in the day–that would be great news for McCain…”

    isn’t it ALWAYS great news for st. john?

  • I’ve been scouring the net for a leak here or there and all has been for naught. I guess waiting shouldn’t really matter though. In the end, if things are close, we could always count on the Supreme Court to make the final decision.

  • Dale, how about getting someone new registered and motivated to vote? I think we should all take that challenge on for the general election.

  • agree with #3 RacerX — i don’t see mccain as the cause for a fired up turnout, even if he does benefit from it. could be like iowa — lots more dem votes cast, most of ’em for obama.

  • A huge turnout is bad for establishment candidates of both parties. Can’t you just hear them saying, “Who are all these tacky people, and what can we do about them voting like this?”

    CB reported on another post that the US Chamber of Commerce is upset because of the “populist tone” of the campaign so far. If this level of interest keeps up, they ain’t seen nothin’ yet!

  • Those wanting change are not limited to the netroots and those frequenting blogs; this nation wants nothing more to do with Bushism. It does matter who gets into the White House and voters are figuring out that their votes do count.

    Got it in two. I see the sharply upward turnout rates as a sort of replacement action for just kicking Bush out right now (anyone watching, Congressional Dems?), and that so many people are more engaged suggests to me not a little remorse for allowing this tragic bozo not one but two ruinous terms in the world’s most powerful job.

  • It is necessity that is driving voters to come out. ‘Something has to be done’, is the rallying cry…almost to the point of panic as it seems everyone senses that they must become involved in the process to stop what has happened to our nation from continuing. Agree with results or disagree it’s the reality that our current state of affairs demands action. It’s the way it is supposed to be. Necessity is not only the mother of invention it is the mother of involvement. It’s great to see such a huge turnout.

  • Of course, the obvious question is: who’s winning?

    I am past anticipation…

    Some of us can sense what moves in the offing…
    And some of us sense it even more:

    I want the security around Barack O tripled before the polls close, and quadrupled before the sun rises tomorrow.

    If he wins in a rout we enter scary land.

  • In a sense, 60-40 is slightly more than 50-50.

    I’m skeptical of anything McCain’s people are saying. We already know they’re running dramatically low on principally Democratic ballots, and while that probably speaks to our superior base turnout, I think it also means a strong independent preference.

  • btw…I’m just sick of having candidates shoved down my throat by MSM. I wish everytime you mentioned Obama, Edwards and Kucinich were mentioned also. ABC refusing to let the only candidate saying anything different than the others into the debate, and the MSM just omitting Edwards and Kucinich altogether tells me it’s all about the money with them.

    No money…no coverage. The press has already picked Obama-McCain and have gone about shoving them down our throats. How am I expected to believe anything when I suspect the press is trying to control the message and to pick our candidates for us by their influence.
    I’ve yet to see a word about Edwards in connection to NH. Or Kucinich, or Paul…our media stinks. How can it ever be fair when one buys $9 mil. worth of TV ads compared to the others only being able to afford $1 mil worth. When we we ever get media profiteering out of our elections?

  • On the one hand it’s good there are no leaks etc. to prematurely drive the process and thus discourage voters who only have time after work to participate.

    On the other hand, it means that vote-counting shenanigans happen in a data-void, since exit polls traditionally (until the Bush years at least) were highly accurate. Indeed, it is because of those exit polls that many twigged initially that something was seriously wrong with the 2004 counts.

    I don’t think they’ll play too many games in the early primaries. But at least for the general election, we know all know that the whole thing is rigged. Because Americans clearly are not going to vote for any of the radical change candidates who, once in office, might be able to fundamentally reform the system, this entire process, although entertaining, is a huge waste of time, effort and national heart.

    If you look at Obama’s advisory group, esp. around foreign affairs, obviously he is just another ‘Empire’ candidate as are all the other front-runners. Again, what a waste…

  • bjobotts
    You forgot Gravel.

    He was excluded from debates because he lacked money.
    At the time, he was outpolling Biden.

    Unless you meant to include only those candidates you personally agree with shouldn’t be judged on their fundraising prowess… in which case, carry on.

  • MsJoanne said:

    Dale, how about getting someone new registered and motivated to vote? I think we should all take that challenge on for the general election.

    I agree that is the crucial activity of all.

    ROTFLMAO said:
    I want the security around Barack O tripled before the polls close, and quadrupled before the sun rises tomorrow.

    Hell yeah. Watching the O’Reilly tape I just had Bobby Kennedy flashbacks.Obama looked so damned vulnerable.

    Ps Edwards, Kucinich,

  • Pingback: Birmingham Blues » Blog Archive » GOTV

  • Wow BJbotts, great turn of phrase “Neccessity is not just the mother of invention, it’s also the mother of involvement.” I’m gonna have to quote you on that.

    Go Edwards! Go Kuchinich! Go Gravel! Yea, go Paul too. 😛

  • well, based on the surge in voters, my guess is that we ought to raise the voting age to, say, 55?

    /snark

  • one place that doesn’t seem to like the readings in the tea leaves too much is wall street — it seems to be on steady decline since the ‘change agents’ started gaining traction.

  • bjobotts:

    I agree with you about the media coverage etc. perhaps not sure that it’s just about money. I believe Ron Paul has spent money in NH, but he is still not really being covered. But then most of what we read in MSM is not local to NH and I doubt the networks allocate coverage based on short-term spots in local areas (i.e. Paul may have spent for 2 weeks in NH, but he has not spent for 2 weeks nationally and of course most of their clients – ‘sponsors’ – spend for months at a time nationally. So that is a money argument, I suppose, but still I suspect there is more than just the money at play. Any anti-corporate candidate is a dire threat to their existence. Kucinich has long complained about how MSM treats third party candidates, but also won’t air issues coming up in Washington in House and Senate that are anticorporate and so forth.

    Personally, I think Gravels Article V (?) initiative is the only thing I have heard of that makes any sense. And it should be organised using the internet and done outside the General Election insanity. But it seems the idea hasn’t got any traction. Again, though, it hasn’t really been taken for a spin in the non-election context. I think if he could get a few people like Kucinich and Paul and many other progressives and libertarians on board, with their many existing blogs and websites, that they could begin to organise a national petition, albeit with state by state cadres so as to gain critical mass in each state. It wouldn’t have to cost much, but it might have a real shot at success if it was pushed skillfully.

  • TPM has the election results so far up. IT’S A TIE. Everyone is tied at 0%. I’m predicting on the basis of these results that no one will vote. Film at Eleven.

  • This is the first time both parties have had contested primaries since 1988, right? So I expect turnout to be large.

    I do remember being excited in 2004 when turnout was huge on election day. Surely that meant Kerry was going to win. So I hope this means more excitement on the Democratic side, but I won’t count on it until the numbers are in.

  • I do not like this “waiting until the end” thing…Even if the leaked exit polling results turn out to be wrong, thats not all bad. It adds to the excitement and the drama of the day. But if the exit polling is showing clear and decisive winners, let us know!

  • .entheo said:

    one place that doesn’t seem to like the readings in the tea leaves too much is wall street — it seems to be on steady decline since the ‘change agents’ started gaining traction.

    Well sure, that and Bush’s shitty economic numbers.

  • Yes, having high turnout is definitely the message for change. I think the Republican party was not as obvious as it is now of how awful they can be towards the basic citizen. I think we all needed to really SEE what can happen if we don’t participate in government and how it CAN effect our daily lives. This is the only thing I’m thankful for with the Republican Party – they show how terrible they can be.

  • Not to be the web blanket here, but remember that there might be quite a few simple folk out there normally too ignorant to vote, but who might feel compelled to vote against a woman or a black man.

  • I would like to be exurberant about Obama, as so many of my friends are, and I have no problem with him being president. This is, however, AmeriKKKa. Once you get away from the coasts and the upper mid-west he’s dead meat. He won’t take one southern state. The usual suppression of black voters will take place in Florida, and I fear for the safety of the man, a truly good man.

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