Open Thread — New Hampshire Primary Edition

January 8, 2008

I won’t be at my desk when the final results of the New Hampshire primary are released, but here’s an open thread anyway.

As of now, from what I’m hearing, most of the networks are already calling the Republican race for McCain, with Romney second. No big surprise.

On the Democratic side, with limited precincts reporting, word is that the race between Clinton and Obama is much closer than expected, with Edwards further back in third place. Might we actually see a huge surprise tonight?

I’ll have full coverage in the morning, but in the interim, here’s an open thread to a) highlight the final results; b) brag about your candidate’s success; and/or c) complain about your candidate coming up short.

As for checking results as they’re available, there are literally dozens of sites that will be posting the numbers, though I know the Politico will be keeping an updated tally, with a page that helpfully reloads automatically. Also check TPM, the NYT, and the WaPo, all of which will be publishing results.

And with that, have at it. The floor is yours….

ok, let me ask this again here:

I was looking through the NH exit polls, and setting aside the unreliability of exit polling, and the fact that there seems to be some internal inconsistency and all-over-the-map-ness about them, there is nothing in there to suggest an Obama landslide, and indeed some pretty strong suggestion to the contrary.

Obviously if Clinton wins, she wins. If Obama wins by double digits, he wins.

But the question for my fellow political junkies is this: has the media slammed on Hillary’s “crash” so hard and so thoroughly hyped Obama that if Clinton loses by, lets say, 4%, that it ends up being a “win” for her by beating the expectations game? Does that get her a headline of “Not Over Yet!”

  • If two states define who becomes the presidential candidate, why bother having any other primaries? We need to have one primary day. This is simply wrong.

    And the way this is playing out, it’s going to take Super Tuesday to determine anything. I wouldn’t count anyone out just yet.

  • Given the horse-race obsessions of ourselves and our media, yes, that would suffice for Clinton to “exceed expectations”. Anything to prolong the race and permit additional rounds of commentary, large audiences, and munificent ad sales.

  • Zeitgeist, if Clinton loses narrowly in New Hampshire the MSM will treat it as a loss. They just don’t like her.

  • Oh, and thus far, it looks like a 2-1 turnout for the dems. An IA repeat in the numbers game of how many dems vs how many goopers turned out.

    WOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Just when Obama was starting to get some inevitability going for him, Hillary looks like she’ll win tonight. With all the comments etc I’ve been wavering like crazy. I’ve been for Edwards mostly and felt strong empathy for Hillary, but now I’m realizing that I’m kinda tired of the clintons too. I was sort of hoping that Obama would hold his momentum and be a true phenomenon. But now he’s looking like a normal candidate.

    Clinton should confine her further campaigning to “First Woman President! Woo hoo!”

  • Sorry Zeitgeist for ignoring it last time…
    But trading slurs with Bill Clinton was more important to me at the time.

    Right now it looks like her numbers are holding pretty firm…
    The Clintonista machine looks good.
    Particularly… Strafford county is killing Obama:

    http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NH.html

    So I am thinking your -4% metric is out the window and the greater question might just be:
    Can Obama survive the Bill’s sucker punches and Hill’s crocodile tears?

    I dunno.

    On the one hand I am glad we have a horse race again…

  • Good, if Clinton is still alive that means she has time to do two important things: (1) fire Mark Penn and (2) send Bill off to some overseas do-gooder trip.

    (Although I would note in the exit poll results that when people voting in the Dem primary were asked “If Bill Clinton were running, would you vote for your chosen candidate or for Bill Clinton?” ol’ Bill won handily with 57%.)

  • i don’t know. right now the results are tilting toward clinton. but how about the fact that it is going to be a record turnout? i know mccain benefited greatly from that, but shouldn’t obama benefit also?

    and the buzz around here (not the press) has been highly tilted toward obama.

    things just don’t seem to be lining up right…….hmmmmm

  • How are CNN and the WaPo calling the GOP race for McCain when only 21% of the precincts are reporting? Granted he’s ahead by 9% at the moment, but that’s only a matter of about 3,500 votes; isn’t this a bit premature?

  • ROTFLMAO is right. Obama is ahead in all counties but one. Something odd going on there.

  • American social psychologist W.I. Thomas: “That is real which is real in its consequences.” (I love that: the essence of parsimony, innit?)
    All the consequences at this point are pretty ephemeral, though no less real for that. It really depends on what is MADE of the consequences, granting already their reality. And when examining the arti-facture, we should recall that artisans all have their reasons and their purposes. Who decides what gets to count as ‘truth’? Is this an aesthetic question?

  • James Dillon: the magic of exit polls.

    just bill: the exit polls suggest that much of the large turnout is traditional dems coming out and non-first-time primary voters turning out. it also appears that women are a significant plurality. so long as those are the demographics of the extra voters, turnout doesn’t automatically help Obama the way it did in Iowa.

    McCain and Obama likely both had their numbers depressed a bit by Independents splitting between them – and one wonders if conflicted Independents saw all of the Obama-annointing coverage and figured they could safely go vote for McCain?

  • Looks like Clinton is going to carry Strafford and Carroll and Hillsborough counties…
    All the rest are for Barry O…
    Except Belknap (next to Strafford) has yet to report.

    Strafford is 63% spent.

    I don’t know the populations of the others.
    Assuming somewhat equal density and Belknap goes 50-50: Obama wins this by the width of a cigar.

    Right now that’s my call…

  • Fun watching the returns live with the Young Turks at http://bravenewfilms.org/election.

    May I add a WV YAAAAAHHHHHOOOOO!!!!!! to MsJoannes’ WOOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Great night for the Dems again, huge turnout.

    Question to all: If Hill’s lead holds and she wins NH, will reporters say hi to her when she drops by with bagels or coffee?

    Just askin.

  • the numbers on politico seem to be trending toward obama right now…..we’ll see…

  • I dont want to forget about those zany Republicans. Everyone root with JKap for Ron Paul, who is in striking distance of putting The Dictator of 9/11 in 5th place. That gets a Woo Hoo!

  • No small amount of the trouble that the press pool has w/shrillary izzat they know, down deep in their lizard brains, that the Clintons have a beef with them, from which they would not emerge unscathed if it were to fully surface.

    Shrillary reminds ’em of their grossest derelictions of duty (prior to 2000). They don’t like it; to the extent possible, it embarrasses them. So they react to her with hostility.

    Think 9th grade.

  • I’m surprised by the closeness of the Dems race. When Dixville Notch – the whitest place north of a KKK rally in Alabama – went big for Obama this morning, I thought it was indicative of an Obama sweep. Guess I was wrong.

    Nothing wrong with a continued primary til Feb 5th. It’ll toughen everyone up.

  • Hmmm. Looks like the Dem voters of NH are giving the media a big middle finger (bless them), and voting for Clinton more than the media would like.

  • woody, if i thought that Clinton-towards-press animosity would be enough for her to break up their oligopoly, reinstate the fairness doctrine, and appoint an FCC that is serious about the public interest standard, I’d do a max-out contribution to her tomorrow.

  • I don’t think he can get it done…
    I missed Coos county way up north in my back of envelop number crunch…
    It looks like it is going solid to Clinton too.
    Belknap still not reporting.
    To have a chance he has got to win that one by 50% of more.

  • (1) fire Mark Penn -Z

    I heard on the radio Clinton was shaking up her staff tomorrow. Maybe Penn will go.

    Anyone else tired of the braindead talking heads saying the surge/Iraq war is going swimmingly?

  • z-geist–i don’t think that’s the trajectory of the relation.
    bubba signed the ’96 consolidation bill…i don’t think it was veto-proof.
    she was (appearing to) trying to make nice.: bagels, coffee…
    their discomfort, it seems to me, truncated the exchange.
    save yer money, bro…once the first deal is cut under the new FCC regs, there’ll be no going back…

  • WHAT THE HELL?

    My theory, NH indies are suffering from American Idol Syndrome. That is, too many of them thought Obama had it in the bag and decided McCain needed their vote more. Unbelievable.

  • If she holds, why would HRC announce a shake-up? She hasn’t tossed Penn over the sied so far, despite his (corp) advocacy for Blackwater. Why would she jettison the mntherfncker when sh’e ahead?

  • “That is, too many of them thought Obama had it in the bag and decided McCain needed their vote more. Unbelievable.”

    I still think it is due more to the NH Dem/Indy voters giving the MSM the middle finger…

  • Chris, voting numbers are nearly 2-1 Dems over reThugs. Indies breaking for Obama, registered Dems for Hillary.

    To all, will Sullivan have a tantrum if Hillary wins?

  • bubba – and giving Iowa the middle finger. they like to prove us Iowans can’t tell them what to do. 🙂

  • dnA- not necessarily. Obama’s victory and the talk surrounding it could’ve created a false impression among polling.

    With 43% of the votes tallied, Clinton is leading 39-36. Obama still has a chance to catch her.

  • Oh, and Pollster’s trendline had Obama at 37%, the real issue is that Clinton was severely undercounted.

    Does anyone else find it funny that even though Biden dropped out, he’s getting more votes than Gravel?

  • I think Chris Matthews looks like he is almost ready to vomit with Clinton now slowly increasing the margin.

  • I think it’s far more likely that Americans prematurely congratulated ourselves on that whole “transcending race” thing.

  • At 9:30 PM, ABC said that they haven’t had any results from the college towns.

    I’m not unhappy with a race that continues into additional states and continues to test the candidates, and hopefully improves them, and which excites the voters.

    I’m biased, but it seems to me that the Democratic candidates, unlike the Republicans, get better as we learn more about them.

  • a couple of great comments by n.wells. i hate having the race so early, but i would like to see some kind of arrangement that doesn’t result in a few small, and in my mind, unrepresentative states, having so much influence in the process. a regular race, with progressive (organized) primaries would probably work better.

    and, how would anyone expect the republicans to get better as we learn more about them 🙂

  • Is it me, or do all the talking heads on the teevee fail to recognize their role and efforts in attempting to influence these results? Is this intentional ignorance, or just good old fashioned ignorance?

  • McCain’s acceptance speech was deadly dull and confused and disjointed. I’m glad he won — it proves there’s at least minimal sanity left in the GOP voters — but if a tired old warmonger’s the best they can do I’d say we have a very clear track. Of course we do have an established track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The track may be clear, but we still have to run the marathon and then some (since the GOP never plays by normal sporting rules).

    At the moment Hilary’s ahead. If it winds up that way I’d say that’s a good thing, though I don[‘t want to vote for her. I’m impressed with Obama, but the last thing we need at the moment is Messianic euphoria sweeping the country. We need a reminder that we’re all still human, and Obama’s defeat, if that should be the outcome, will give us that reminder.

    One. step. at. a. time.

  • All calculations rounded to nearest thou…
    None of the multiplications double checked:

    Coos: population: 33 thousands
    Hill gets 40% of the uncounted 40% for 5.3 thousand more votes
    O gets 32% of the uncounted 40% 4.2 thousand more votes

    Sullivan: population: 40
    Hill gets 30% of the uncounted 45% for 5.4 thousand more votes
    O gets 45% of the uncounted 45% for 8 thousand more

    Carroll: 43
    Hill gets 37% of the uncounted 60% for 9.5 thousand more votes
    O gets 39% of the uncounted 60% for 10 thousand more

    Belknap: 56
    Looks like a wash

    Cheshire: 74
    Hill gets 32% of the uncounted 50% for 12 thousand more votes
    O gets 40% of the uncounted 50% for 14.8 thousand more votes

    Grafton: 82
    Hill gets 32% of the uncounted 66% for 17 thousand more votes
    O gets 42% of the uncounted 66% for 23 thousand more votes

    Strafford: 112
    Hill gets 43% of the uncounted 30% for 15 thousand more votes
    O gets 33% of the uncounted 30% for 11 thousand more votes

    Merrimack: 136
    Hill gets 36% of the uncounted 56% for 27 thousand more votes
    O gets 40% of the uncounted 56% for 30 thousand more votes

    Rockingham: 277
    It is a wash.

    Hillsborough: 380
    Hill gets 43% of the uncounted 59% for 96 thousand more votes
    O gets 34% of the uncounted 59% for 76 thousand more votes

    As you can see Hillsborough is huge.
    O loses as much as 20,000 votes as the night goes on there…
    Does he make the 20,000 up else where?
    No.
    Maybe 12,000-15,000.

    I am calling this one for Hillary.

  • ed – dnA

    I want the Messianic euphoria thing, McGovern was human too. Deadly dull like McCain was I suppose. Now I was too young to vote for him, asked my mom, she said when the time came she couldnt for bring herself to vote for Nixon – I believed her. Would my mom lie to me? Not like I was an anonymous pollster – I dunno dnA – Lot of people dont like Hiallary either, but she’s billed as electable

  • that many uncounted votes in hillsborough county? hmmm, be careful rotflmoa. that’s a lot of votes…….

  • Chris you are absolutly correct. Can you imagine the media if it is their boy St. John vs. Billary?

  • bubba – if the media acknowledged its increasing tendency to drive these elections, it might have to stop, or do something different, so I think the state of feigned denial will last as long as the media can stretch it out.

    I think it’s a case of self-fulfilling prophesy that proves the media’s relevance. At some point, the media decides which candidates will be battling for the win, and the coverage is geared in that direction. If they want Hillary to lose, the slant will be negative, the message to the average low-information voter will be “ew – I don’t like her – and of there is a corresponding positive, endlessly forgiving, double-standard coverage of the media’s choice, that same voter will be turned toward that candidate. When the anointed winner wins, and the loser loses – doesn’t the media look positively brilliant, and haven’t they ensured their own relevance – even if the credit – or the blame – always goes to the voters? The media still refuses to see the role it played in getting Bush elected – twice – or the role it played in the decision to go to war. I can’t be the only one who thinks that relentless questioning of the administration might have – at a minimum – delayed the war, and might also have changed the way it was waged.

    Maybe a few primaries where the voters do give the media the one-finger salute would go a long way to taking the media down a peg or two, and make for some changes in the way it does business.

    I’m still working on that fantasy world thing – can you tell?

  • Chris, the general election is so far off I don’t even want to think about it. Remember a week ago? The unstoppable Hilary juggernaut? Then that got derailed, and already tonight everybody’s got her charging ahead again. One. step. at. a. time. And keep your eye on the GOP with its thumb on the scales and its index finger on the roulette wheel and its big toe holding an ace up its pants leg. Not to mention a shocking setback in the Iraq quagmire or hanky-panky on the Gulf of Hormuz.

    It’s a long, long time from May to September, but we’ve got to cover January to November (and maybe beyond).

  • Um, Anne, if the media drives elections, and media prognostications are self fulfilling prophecies, how do you explain the fact that Obama does not seem to be leading Hilary by 10 points tonight? If the media is so all powerful that they anoint the winner in advance, what went wrong today?

    I think you overestimate the stupidity and gullibility of the public, and the power of the media. “The media” is not some homogeneous, well-organized cabal. It’s a bunch of reporters and executives and editors and while there are often trendy viewpoints and “angles”, the media chases public opinion a lot more than public opinion chases the media.

  • In terms of number of votes, Clinton’s lead is slowly widening, and it looks like she will pull off a narrow but decisive victory.

  • I think that when the blogosphere (left, right and whatever) absorbs a few more of these outcomes where the punditocracy has to eat their analyses, the country’s going to think of them about the way the do moguls of fashion. After decades (centuries?) of being told that half-inch up or down or in or out makes all your old fashion choices out-of-date, so you’ll have to spend another king’s ransom to get back in style, people have finally told the “experts’ to fuck themselves. Sweatshirts in church, a tie to campus … who cares? Blooey … a whole industry down the tubes.

    Chris Matthews, et al., who needs you? Tonight Chris and his buddies were pronouncing authoritatively about how the voters sympathized with Hilary’s tear fest, that that’s why she swayed so many women voters. Well, hot shots, if that’s true, why weren’t you saying so yesterday instead of piling on?

    I really do think the blogosophere is going make Chris Matthews and his ilk dodo-like, aybe even in this in this election cycle. One. step. at. a. time.

  • Can’t figure out what happened since Iowa for Clinton to get a rebound. Wonder if this is just the different regional temperaments and attitudes coming out rather than successful campaigning making the difference. Since the horse race is back on, I hope the candidates (sans advisors like Mark Penn) try to differentiate themselves on policy rather than stupid stuff.

    Shades of 2000 for McCain. With the scene of Bush’s crime that was South Carolina looming, I’m sure McCain hasn’t forgotten, have the South Carolinians? Looks like the war between the theocrats and the cronycrats is on for control of the right wing.

  • i still see the “Hillary is unelectable” meme. This is a semi-open primary and she is poised to win it, which the conventional wisdom also said she couldn’t do.

    any of our top candidates are electable. even good candidates like Gore sometimes aren’t if they run rotten campaigns.

    and i hesitate to admit it, being a Hillary supporter, but if Obama is going to win in the end, i’ll take the minority position and say it might have been useful to have kept the halo, the otherworldliness aura about him.

  • Can’t figure out what happened since Iowa for Clinton to get a rebound. — petorado

    I think that Clinton’s backers were the most firmly decided, so while post-Iowa they wavered, when it got to voting they came back to her. Obama’s level of support is exactly in line with what was predicted, and Edwards is doing slightly worse than expected, but of course it was Clinton’s support that was severely undercounted.

  • Come on, Brooks – are you telling me the media doesn’t slant the coverage? Then explain to me why Edwards, for example, couldn’t get a word in between all the breathless coverage of Obama-Clinton? Explain Fox to me, will ya? You think Fox continued all that Obama-attended-a-madrassa nonsense as a means of informing its viewers?

    I didn’t say that it always works – the media desperately wanted Rudy to be the front-runner and the public isn’t buying it – good for them. But tell me this race – in general – wouldn’t be shaping up differently if the media wasn’t constantly inserting itself into the equation.

    What may be happening to skew the media’s ability to fulfill its own prophecies in this election is the surge in young voters who don’t give a rat’s ass what Chris Matthews or Tim Russert or the rest of the “analysts” are saying – and that’s good.

    The media is no longer the honest broker, and prefers access to power as opposed to speaking truth to it. Would you disagree?

  • petorado (62) –

    the problem with differentiating on policy is that the current policy positions between Obama and Clinton are so minimal, subtle, and detailed that getting there would bore the average voter to tears and still not do much to drive a choice.

    it really is largely about which vehicle you want your health care, iraq, middle class assistance, etc. delivered in.

  • So Hillary wins this one. She’s got Michigan locked up. I wonder if Nevada will turn on this momentum.

  • I’m impressed by the fact that Ron Paul is within less than 1% of Rudy Giuliani… I wonder how he’s going to spin that one…. Sure it’s only single digits, but that’s pretty impressive for a libertarian, especially since Rudy thought of himself as being the anointed nominee and a shoe-in.

    🙂

  • yeah, i’m not so comfortable the results so far it either. still doesn’t quite sit with me.

    course i’ve been wrong before 🙂

  • “What may be happening to skew the media’s ability to fulfill its own prophecies in this election is the surge in young voters who don’t give a rat’s ass what Chris Matthews or Tim Russert or the rest of the “analysts” are saying – and that’s good.”

    absolutely, anne. course, i would speculate that many young voters don’t even hear chris matthews or tim russert. “who?”

  • I’m sorry to say Zeitgeist, but it sure makes Iowa caucus goers look rather silly for having overwhelmingly voted for Huckabee as their Republican candidate, when NH voters, give him barely double digits.

    Of course that applies only to Republican caucus participants there, not you as a person… A sorry bunch to be sure.

    PS: Zeitgeist, I did appreciate the time and effort you put into educating us about the history and workings of the caucus process in your beloved state.

    🙂

  • Good point Z. I’d just rather read about what they want to do in the future than crying, haircuts or long, slender fingers.

    Hey, anyone seen Uncle Fred? He must be out wandering the fields with 1% of the vote. The Thompson campaign deathwatch starts now …

    God I hope Rudy doesn’t apply the Tinkerbell theory and think he now has to say “9/11” LOUDER.

  • any of our top candidates are electable. even good candidates like Gore sometimes aren’t if they run rotten campaigns

    which includes running mate, i presume? Will you be surprised if Lieberman shows up on a Unity ’08 ticket with McStain?

  • agree petorado – maybe now they can all settle down out of panic mode and have a calm, rational, positive, substantive discussion with the American people, always emphasizing that any Dems are better than any Repubs right now.

    see, i can be delirious with hope! 🙂

  • The Clinton Tears are not about empowering women. It is about empowering the DLC establishment. Some ready to lead others not, some right some wrong. Olbermann nailed it. Edwards and Kucinich the only real Progressives are blocked out by the MSM. South America looks better every day and the U.S. is becoming increasingly bankrupt and irrelevant.

  • That Ron Paul is running close to Ghouliani only suggests to me that the Ayn Rand aficionados amongst the GOP are quite similar in number to the Mussolinisti…Keeping ’em at each other’s throats seems a good strategy to me.

  • Yes, Anne, I would disagree. Treating “the media” as some kind of uniform and coordinated organization is silly. I’ve worked for “the media”, and I can assure you, the work barely gets done at all, let alone in some kind of systematically slanted manner. There are exceptions of course, like Fox News where they go out of their way to present the Republican viewpoint, but Fox doesn’t change anyone’s opinion. Like any zealot, they preach to the choir.

    The media is put together by people. People, by nature, like to be right. There is a flocking mentality in the media that causes “conventional wisdom” to arise. And, yes, those flocks can be influenced. McCain is nice to the press, Hilary isn’t, and it’s no coincidence that the real live people reporting on them are affected by what they see as personal care or affronts.

    So, sure, there is slanted coverage. And, sometimes, wide swaths of the media can follow the same slant at any given moment. But there is no conspiracy, or plan, or even conscious thought. And I stand by my position that, as a whole, the media is largely chasing what they perceive to be public opinion. They may get it wrong, and individual peoples’ biases may make them get it wrong in specific ways. And there are blowhard commentators on both sides of the aisle who are only taken seriously by people who already agree with them.

    But on the whole, I think media shapes public opinion less than you think. And to the extent that it does, I think it is uncoordinated and almost (but not entirely) a product of of system, not a driver of the system.

  • I seriously wonder about polling methodology. How are they off 10%-15%, basically across the board?

    Too bad for Edwards, I was hoping for a much better showing.

  • Another interesting tidbit…. If you add the total numbers of people who voted for Clinton and Obama, you end up with approximately the same amount of people who voted for the top 5 Republican candidates….

    If that is a trend, it will be very nice to see that during the general election.

  • doubtful (79) far be it from me to defend pollsters, but i’d guess the compression is part of it – Iowa put things in flux and they never stabilized enough to be measured well because of the short 5 day window.

  • I seriously wonder about polling methodology. How are they off 10%-15%, basically across the board? — doubtful

    The polls for Obama, Edwards, and Richardson were very close, it’s only Clinton that’s been undercounted, by about 9 points.

  • This result is probably not a bad thing for Obama and his supporters – it will galvanize them to work even harder; I’m still optimistic.

    Obama, HRC and McCain would all make OK Presidents I guess, but I would still like to see Obama win as it would be good for America.

    Thinking about a HRC/McCain battle, it all seems so uninspiring. And seeing Bill Clinton back in action this week, frankly so seedy – it’s like having a favorite shirt (or dress) that you can’t wear anymore cause it has a nasty stain on it, yet you can’t throw it away. And there it still hangs in the back of the wardrobe to remind you of some good times past, but it does nothing towards the future.

    Still, onward and upward!

  • doubtful – same here. This reminds me of the discrepancies between exit polls in 2000 and 2004 and the actual poll results. This just seems way outside the polling margins of error. I wonder if there were a lot of polling booth conversions today.

  • It’s like having a favorite shirt (or dress) that you can’t wear anymore cause it has a nasty stain on it, yet you can’t throw it away. And there it still hangs in the back of the wardrobe to remind you of some good times past, but it does nothing towards the future.

    Very nice analogy…very apt.

  • I do think there was an important subtext in Bill Clinton’s surprisingly strong anti-Obama messaging this week. He was saying: if Hilary is the nominee, I will fight hard, I will fight dirty, I will be passionate and ruthless… but if Obama is the nominee, it’s going to be hard to get behind him.

    Me, I think that says negative things about Bill, but the fact is that could have a material effect on the general election. Some voters might have been scared back to Hilary by the implicit threat.

  • HRC vs McCain, as just guessing said does seem uninspiring. It’s starting to feel like John Kerry again. The Dem establishment candidate, however, disastrous, shall lead us.

    First woman president! Woo hoo!

  • Whoa, what was wrong with those polls?

    Any idea on that CB?

    I thought the WSJ was trying to get Hilary and her supporters to call it quits too quick, and it almost looks like the pollsters were too!

  • While I would have liked to see Edwards do better, I am mostly glad that the steamroller has been stopped, and the race can continue – the more we see of all of them, the better.

  • Ok, I didn’t see the final numbers of people who voted. Anyone have the numbers of voters by dem and gooper? Percentages are great for who won but I care more about turnout.

    No matter who gets the dem and gooper nods, it’s going to be a slamfest which would out do any WWE event. Between the 527’s and the GOP smear machine it is going to get really ugly and I assume really fast. I am NOT looking forward to this election seasion. I see Willy Horton’s and Swift Boaters in my dreams already (nightmares!). UGH!

    I would like to be sure that no matter what, we’re going to get dems in there and that is going to take numbers. Anyone have those numbers?

  • Well, the media have called it for Hillary Clinton without waiting for the three biggest college towns, so, unless N.H. college students have suddenly split for Clinton, it’s a good bet that the final results will be tighter. Still, I’m glad if she has won it. The level of Hillary hatred in the corporate and net media – including the progressive blogs – has been truly loathsome. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that women “returned” to Hillary because the media was so offensively sexist. Chris Matthews can take his hysteria and stuff it.

    This year both Iowa and New Hampshire have, oddly, proved their worth as early election indicators. They’re small, and they get a lot of face time with the candidates. The rest of us have to rely on the polls (that were wrong) and the media (that interpreted the polls incorrectly and indulged themselves in a regular orgy of bias), but Iowa and New Hampshire proved that people who get their information first hand, from candidates, do not follow the conventional wisdom. Iowa showed that Obama was an extremely viable candidate, and New Hampshire proved that if you see Hillary in person you know she is not a virago, she just plays one on TV.

    I still favor a more representative distribution of primary states, like the rotating regional primaries. But I am now persuaded that opening the election season with small, fiercely independent states provides a much-needed antidote to polls and pundits who, before anyone has actually voted, try to influence the outcome with their preconceptions and outright bias.

  • Brooks said “I do think there was an important subtext in Bill Clinton’s surprisingly strong anti-Obama messaging this week. He was saying: if Hilary is the nominee, I will fight hard, I will fight dirty, I will be passionate and ruthless… but if Obama is the nominee, it’s going to be hard to get behind him.

    I agree, but don’t you think that is part of HRC’s side deal with him?

  • This was the Suffolk Univ. poll that CB posted yesterday:

    * Suffolk University: Clinton 35%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%

    Interesting.

  • I do so love listening to Obama speak. I slightly favor Obama at this point, if only because I’m so sick and tired of the right-wing’s recycled Clinton-basher’s rhetoric. I think both of them are smart and capable and represent a better future for the country, warts and all.

    Also, I loathe Lou Dobbs. Why doesn’t FoxNews hire him already?

  • just guessing, does it matter what the motivation for Bill’s “if you vote for Obama I’m not going to help in the general” pronouncement was? It’s fairly dirty politics one way or the other, but that’s a redundant adjective. He’s probably bluffing, but to even bluff that he’d rather see a Republican elected than Obama (which is the gist of the statement) really lowers my opinion of him.

    I personally think that either Hilary or Obama would be fine presidents, though I think Obama would shake things up more, which I see as a good thing. Regardless, my main fear is that any Republican candidate will have a field day in the general with “do you really want 20 years of Bush / Clinton / Bush / Clinton? Is this a monarchy?” Sure, it’d be disingenuous, but I know a lot of people who are uncomfortable with the idea of ruling families. And, yeah, all of the candidates are members of the same clubs, but being so overt about it may make it easier for any Republican to run against oligarchy rather than addressing the issues.

  • My Message to John Edwards: Hang in there John, I am in California and I want to have the chance to vote for you!

  • tp (96) said Suffolk University is looking remarkably good tonight.

    I seem to remember CB commenting early today on Suffolk being an outlier that would either have some explaining to do, or be seen as remarkably prescient.

    Great to be them this evening.

    Everyone else, not so much.

    Good night.

  • Suffolk U. didn’t have Clinton winning either, did they?

    Are there any alternate explanations besides the Bradley Effect? Just because someone has a theory about the discrepancy between polls and results in that election doesn’t mean the explanation was right in that case or in this one.

  • Thanks Bruno!

    Numbers for anyone else who’s curious:

    DEM turnout 243,074 GOP turnout 202,054

    Paul got almost 16000 votes! ARGH!!

    202k people voted republican. Are there that many stupid people in NH? How on earth can anyone vote GOP after the last 7 years? I DO NOT GET IT?!?!?!

    I would have preferred to see that 2-1 lead for I think it is going to take a cushion that large to get pas the smears, the 527s, the viral emails, and all the other dirty tricks we are going to be subjected to.

  • MsJoanne, pretend you live in NH. And pretend, for the moment, that you’re OK with any of the top three Democrats. However, you are terrified of Romeny and Paul and Giuliani, and skeptical of Huckabee. You know that you can either influence the Democratic nominee, all of whom are OK, or influence the Republican nominee — some of whom you really want to stop.

    I think that’s a fair argument for voting in the Republican primary. It doesn’t mean they prefer the party (though they might), just that those people thought their vote would do the most good in that way.

  • Hillary is soon to be cracking the 100,000 voter line, Barack should top that as well. McCain is still in the upper 70’s. Good to see such high numbers.

  • Brooks, # 98. I agree that it is the fact he said it that also disappoints me but it does reflect the fact that the Clintons are really in this for the Clintons. I had hoped that with a classy and eloquent opponent like Obama, it would have brough out the best in Bill, but he got down and dirty real quick. Maybe my freinds were right that I was always too forgiving of his antics in the WH.

    And while HRC is a worthy option for President, I too worry that the advanatge I see that the Dems would have through an Obama Presidency, will be lost in another Clinton struggle with the Rethugs. The downside to HRC is a real threat to the Dems.

    But on the bright side, Obama will get a nice bump this week with the Gore endorsement!

  • Brooks, thank you. I feel better now – somewhat. I was so fearful in the 2004 election because I knew what was going to happen with the Supreme Court (which, of course, happened). This time around I fear for all of us. There are so many things that are so seriously f’d up and it is going to take more than rhetoric and I’LL DO IT (with no statement as to how they might do it); this time it scares the crap out of me.

    We all have so much on the line with this election. I hope that some of the dumb$hits in our country wake up to the fact that gays and religion don’t mean anything right now.

  • Maybe Hillary “won” with the help of Republican Corporations “counting” the votes? Who knows? Certainly the pre-election polls did not indicate that her victory was even remotely possible… Could the GOP neocons still be rigging elections in 2008? Does any NH resident have details on the voting machines and how electronic and computerized they are this year? I believe that GOP Senator Sunnu “won” but I remember having some doubts about whether his “victory” was just GOP electronic rigging or was honest… Hillary is corporate America’s best good chance to continue Bush wars and unchallenged corporate greed…
    I have zero faith in any election that does not employ hand-counted paper ballots. Anything “electronic” computerized voting system can be very easily and undetectably rigged…
    Most of the “unexpected” and “amazing” Republican election “victories” in the 21st century were the direct result of GOP operatives hacking, rigging and stealing elections electronically…

  • Well, I guess it could be the Bradley Effect.

    But, the bottome line is–
    things are trending in Clinton’s direction.

    And that is great to see!

    There is no reason why we should skip over our most experienced, most qualified candidate.

    Hillary is great, and Obama may have his time too. There is no way his wife is going to stand in the way of him being President of the United States, despite what she may say now about not running again.

  • I dunno, Green Leaf. As someone who’s fairly neutral (though admittedly slightly pro-Obama), I definitely congratulate you on Clinton’s day today.

    However, I have to fault some of your logic. First, sure, things are trending Clinton’s way today. Just like they were trending Obama’s last week. We’re at the very beginning here, and spotting trends is like flipping a coin twice and deciding that while it started on tails, it is now trending towards heads.

    Second, there is one very key reason why one could argue for skipping over our most experienced, most qualified candidate (even assuming that means Hilary and not McCain). Maybe what we need right now isn’t the most experienced or most qualified candidate, but the one most likely to make changes that put America back on track.

    To be clear: I don’t dislike Hilary. However, I do think that her presidency would be a lot like her husband’s: well meaning, more or less ethical (by politician standards, anyways, which is to say only moderately corrupt), and centrist. However, if you think back on the Clinton presidency, what did he do to fundamentally change America? To improve the tone of political discourse, or to reduce corruption or to fundamentally address the disparity between rich and poor? I am (or was, until this week) a Bill Clinton fan, but there is a reasonable argument to be made that what we need right now is someone who isn’t so experienced and qualified that they just blend right into the status quo.

    All that said, definitely a great day for Hilary, and as long as she stays away from the 527’s and doesn’t go Swift Boat on Obama, I think that the potential for a close but honest and thoughtful Democratic race can only strengthen the party. And who knows? Maybe Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama would bring a good balance of idealism and experience.

  • Bradley effect? Perhaps a bit. Mainly, I think, backlash to media misogyny, exacerbated by John Edwards’ very offensive remarks following Clinton’s moment of emotion. JE did underperform expectations pretty severely, votes that likely went to HRC.

  • the numbers in the polls all showed lots of undecideds, they (especially the female and geriatric vote – i suspect) went for HRC. now will edwards win SC? he’s the bomb chucker the Dems need to take on the rethuglicans – enuff of this ‘we can get alone garbage’ – kindergarden is over and the rethugs never learned to play nice. i feel queasy when i hear Obama’s happy vision of lollipop dreams and republicans reaching across the aisle (and under the bathroom stall). while repugs are down we need to kick them in the teeth for a few years – think of it as shock-and-awe therapy.

  • So Hillary beat Obama by 2 percentage points today, after leading him by 12 points last Thursday morning. Does that sound like a decisive victory, or the percentage of mail-in absentee votes cast before last Thursday by those who want to “go with the inevitable winner”????? What I’ll find interesting is the breakdown of votes of those who voted today.

    And for all you children out there, I would remind you that Lyndon Johnson beat Eugene McCarthy in New Hampshire in 1968. And decisively. JUst not as decisively as expected.

    I don’t see any “Comback Kid” in this at all.

    I do however, thank all you voters back east for creating a situation where our vote in California on February 5 will actually matter, in deciding rather than confirming everyone else’s choice, for the first time in the 41 years I have lived here. Nice to finally be relevant.

    But I do have to say all you Hillary supporters remind me of Hubert Humphrey supporters back 40 years ago. And we know how that one ended.

  • .
    Good point here fellow Californian:

    So Hillary beat Obama by 2 percentage points today, after leading him by 12 points last Thursday morning. Does that sound like a decisive victory, or the percentage of mail-in absentee votes cast before last Thursday by those who want to “go with the inevitable winner”????? What I’ll find interesting is the breakdown of votes of those who voted today.

    By the way. If none here noticed:

    Here is the breakdown of the twenty-two (22) New Hampshire Democratic delegates awarded:

    Clinton: 9
    Obama: 9
    Edwards: 4

    Next!

    ~OGD~
    .

  • Ah, OGD, but you didn’t post the total delegates so far.

    Iowa / Obama: 16
    Iowa / Clinton: 15
    Iowa / Edwards: 14

    NH / Clinton: 9
    NH / Obama: 9
    NH / Edwards: 4

    Total / Clinton: 183
    Total / Obama: 78
    Total / Edwards: 52

    Gotta love them superdelegates, eh? Admittedly 100 extra delegates isn’t a whole lot, with 2025 needed to win. But if it’s close, Hilary’s got a decent advantage.

  • .
    Well Dear Brooks:

    It’s a long road to the convention.

    Now: My point was to highlight that whatever the spin and spew will be in the morning headlines, it all comes down to a tie in what counts. The number of NH delegates to each candidate.

    No doubt the perception of a “big win” for Clinton will be good for her momentum, and Clinton will use it to best advantage, and rightfully so.

    Allow yourself to see it this way. McCain was expected to make the big come back in New Hampshire. The Clintons have made it to appear that they overcame a perceived hurdle. They still fully realize how close the Obama camp is.

    And the positive in all of this? The positive is that the Democratic candidates combined have caused the spotlight to be directed on them and have garnered as much traction as possible to keep the top headlines away from their common target, the Republicans.

    ~OGD~
    .

  • OGD

    whatever the spin and spew will be in the morning headlines, it all comes down to a tie in what counts.

    Of course, that same cold water could have (and should have) been thrown on Obama’s Iowa win, where the delegate count was 16-15, for all practical purposes out of 2025 need to win Iowa was a tie as well.

  • .
    Dear Zeitgeist:

    I exist on a slice of time. In the moment one may say.

    To be absolutely clear. I’m not throwing cold water on either candidate. I’m not throwing cold water on any of the Democratic candidates. I don’t take part in circular firing squads. I’m not taking sides.

    How about you? I hate to repeat myself, but as I said:

    The positive is that the Democratic candidates combined have caused the spotlight to be directed on them and have garnered as much traction as possible to keep the top headlines away from their common target, the Republicans.

    And to answer your question you asked in the very first post in this thread, i.e.; “Does that get her a headline of ‘Not Over Yet!’

    To be truthful, I haven’t seen that one yet, but I have seen this one:

    Dewey defeats Truman Clinton defeats Obama in New Hampshire

    Now on to the my next moment.

    ~OGD~
    .

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