Romney wins Michigan, throws GOP chessboard in the air

January 16, 2008

Once again, the stage was set for a predictable result. John McCain had just won the New Hampshire primary, and was widely considered the undisputed frontrunner for the Republican nomination. The next key contest was the Michigan primary, which seemed to be McCain’s kind of place — it has an open primary, McCain enjoyed a big win here eight years ago, and statewide polls showed him with a modest-but-steady lead in Michigan as recently as late last week.

It was easy to imagine McCain winning the Michigan primary and solidifying his position as the odds-on nominee. Sure, all the pressure was on Mitt Romney, who had practically staked his campaign on the Wolverine State, but McCain needed Michigan to generate some sense of momentum, which in turn could help fill his increasingly-empty coffers.

So much for that idea.

So we’re back to square one in the Republican Party. Mitt Romney beat John McCain handily in Michigan, which means there have now been three major GOP contests and three different comeback winners. […]

After Romney’s losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he offered the flaccid boast that he had won the silver medal, but Tuesday night he was finally able to claim that he had won a genuinely hard-fought primary. Until now he had done nothing but watch his leads in the polls diminish, but in Michigan he trailed McCain and battled back to win. […]

The state was essentially do-or-die for Romney. After two big losses, it was starting to look like no matter how much money, organization, and rigid smiles he threw into the race, none of it was enough to make voters like him. Romney would have had the resources to continue after a Michigan loss, but it would have been a sad death march.

Romney also now has something else he hasn’t had all election season: momentum.

For the record, with all precincts reporting, Romney won with 38.9% of the vote, followed by McCain with 29.7%. Mike Huckabee was a distant third with 16.1%, Ron Paul was fourth with 6.3%, and Fred Thompson finished fifth with 3.7%. Once again, Rudy Giuliani was a distant sixth with 2.8%.

Let’s briefly go one at a time, taking a look at Spin vs. Reality for each of the Republican candidates.

Mitt Romney — What Romney fans are saying: Gold medal, baby! What Romney critics are saying: You only won by running as a favorite son.

Who’s right? It’s close, but I think the fans are. Romney probably got a modest boost running as someone with Michigan lineage, but it appears Romney’s economic message resonated far better than McCain’s.

John McCain — What McCain fans are saying: Our guy is still the frontrunner. What McCain critics are saying: Can your guy actually compete in a state in which only Republicans vote in the Republican primary?

Who’s right? Probably both. McCain can probably shrug off this defeat, though he won’t be able to claim any momentum going into South Carolina. But McCain’s inability to connect with Republicans in a Republican primary may be a sign of real trouble. He lost among Republicans in New Hampshire, lost among Republicans in Iowa, and got trounced among Republicans in Michigan. It’s not a good sign.

Mike Huckabee — What Huckabee fans are saying: Third-place finish exceeded expectations and keeps our guy in the game. What Huckabee critics are saying: He’s a one-trick pony.

Who’s right? One could easily make the case either way, but I think critics are. Before New Hampshire, Huckabee seemed to making a conscious effort to broaden his appeal and shake the label of the “evangelical candidate.” In Michigan, he gave up and accepted his fate. That might help in South Carolina, but it’s likely to hurt him in the long run.

Ron Paul — What Paul fans are saying (probably in all-caps): We had almost as much support as Thompson and Giuliani combined. What Paul critics are saying: Paul still isn’t going to win anywhere.

Who’s right? Both are.

Fred Thompson — What Thompson fans are saying: Fifth-place finish isn’t bad for a guy sleeping through the primaries. What Thompson critics are saying: Yesterday’s showing was embarrassing, again, and without a really strong showing in South Carolina, Fred’s done.

Who’s right? Critics are. Thompson has already conceded that he’s putting it all on the line in South Carolina. Does this mean he might actually campaign a little?

Rudy Giuliani — What Giuliani fans are saying: With the race quickly becoming a free-for-all, Rudy is still very much in the game. What Giuliani critics are saying: Another humiliating sixth place finish is a reminder of what a loser Giuliani is.

Who’s right? I’m going with the critics.

Duncan Hunter — What Hunter fans are saying: (crickets chirping) What Hunter critics are saying: Duncan who?

Who’s right? Critics. The guy won 0.3% in Michigan, and no one seems to realize he’s still a declared candidate. At this point, he probably ought to cut his losses, maintain some dignity, and quietly go away.

Stay tuned.

Duncan Hunter . . . At this point, he probably ought to cut his losses, maintain some dignity. . .

Objection! Assumes facts not in evidence!

  • What McCain critics are saying: Can your guy actually compete in a state in which only Republicans vote in the Republican primary?

    This is a good observation, and one that I was worried about going into Michigan. I figured that with the Dem primary “not counting” that a bunch of moderate Dems would cross over and vote for St. John of the Moderates. And looking at CNN’s exit polling for Michigan, it looks like some did. McCain won the self-identified Democrats and Independents and did miserably among Republicans compared to Romney. And that “vote by ideology” column is telling – the “very conservative” went for Romney – the flip-flopping, “liberal” governor of Taxachusetts – over McCain. (“Liberal” went for Romney too, but it’s a small sliver and he split it almost evenly with McCain given that there’s going to be some kind of MOE on that poll – I can’t find it on CNN’s page though).

    McCain’s got a real image problem among Republicans. I’ve often wondered if the Republicans in my family are outliers, but they seem to be very similar to their Michigan counterparts. Look at that “Top Candidate Quality” question – McCain wins on the “straight shooter” mark but fails miserably at the “Shares My Values” angle – which is where the majority of the Republicans polled felt was most important for a candidate. Interesting – my brother said he’d rather sit the election out and put a “Don’t Blame Me I Didn’t Vote for Anyone” bumpersticker on his car than cast a vote for a “liberal like John McCain.” I figured he was an outlier – he’s disliked McCain since 2000 for reasons I’ve never been quite able to put together beyond “the press likes him”. Now I’m not so sure that he’s that far outside the mainstream of conservatives.

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  • Maybe my memory is off, but it seems to me that most pre-Michigan primary polls had McCain leading over Romney (though close). I guess the polls getting primaries wrong is no longer a story — at least none of the media is talking about it.

  • To hear some on the Republican side spin it, Rudy Giuliani is now ready to make his big move.

    Then I see the flop sweat on their upper lips and know they’re feeling utter panic.

  • Romney promised to lower fuel efficiency standards and direct billions in government aid to the auto industry. That’s okay for Michigan but with what will he bribe the voters in the remaining states?

    9iu11iani’s strategy of proving that he’s a winner by losing every contest so far will come crashing to earth in Florida. The economy is becoming the pre-eminent issue in 2008 and Rudy is still stuck in one day in 2001.

  • I must agree with zeitgeist on this one; Hunter’s “cheese whiz” dignity does not an evidentiary fact make.

    As for the main contenders—the “Big Three” (a fitting mantle, being that they were in the home state of “what’s left of the American auto industry”) played as they should have. McCain ignored the economy issue, and didn’t start playing it up until he saw that he needed it to resonate with voters. OOPS! Romney, on the other hand, went in with a message of Michigan’s “one-state-recession”—and it brought him some solid support.

    Huckabee? He sounded more like Pat Robertson, pounding the western-state “Vangees” with a message of “making America get right with God.” He’s starting to move, I think, toward a message that “if you’re not with God, then America’s problems are your fault.” That’ll make some good red meat for the Wingnutters, but it’ll cost him the nomination. A persecution complex in the making, perhaps?

    Thompson’s still asleep at the wheel, Paul’s spinning his wheels, and the repo-man just took GhoulChild’s push-cart away on the back of a tow truck

  • I’m getting worried that so many Democrats seem to be attracted to McCain. He is surely the strongest candidate for the Republicans in November.

    But if he can’t win in closed Republican primaries, he can’t win their nomination. Who CAN win their nomination? Huck? Romney?

    Surely not Thompson or Rudy. They both seem to be already dead.

    It appears that no one can win the Republican nomination. But someone will.

  • Only a Lieberman Democrat could possibly like McCain, and as we know, Lieberman Democrats are not Democrats at all.

  • “But if he can’t win in closed Republican primaries, he can’t win their nomination.”

    …And the Dems will then take the general election in a landslide like they have never seen before as every independent and moderate will surely steer left vs. voting for Romney or Huckabee. Bye, bye GOP.

    Amazing how far the far right will go when hijacking the party.

  • It would be a mistake to count Guiliani out with no clear front runner yet. If the Rethugs continue to be seriously split, for good reason, Rudee still has a chance. How anyone with any sense can call McCain a ‘liberal’ is laughable. Who then is a ‘true’ conservative? Like Obama who isn’t black, or black-enough, for some people, who constitutes an authentic conservative in the Rethug clown crowd of candidates? I don’t see how the Rethugs are going to coalesce around any one of them. That makes my day. McCain as an independent, however, is a problem.

    The real story, I think, is how the pollsters can’t get it right. Both in NH and Mich. they weren’t off by a little, but by gapping double digets. How can that be? Not much would please me more than pollsters going away, but clearly either their methodology is outdated or the vote counting is even more crooked than I think it is.

  • What struck me was the almost liberal/statist positions Romney, McCain and Huckabee took to win their votes in Michigan. If there was ever a “vote for me and I’ll make Washington work for you” sell-out of conservative principles, it was by these three.

    Crank up the ad making machines Demos. There have to be hours of soundbites to bite these jerks back with.

    And I still can’t believe that the rank and file Republican’ts don’t accept McCain. The Michigan pandering and the McCain rejection convince me more and more that conservatism means nothing more “I believe my positions are right because I believe them”.

  • Rudy will only win a primary if the current trend continues and every candidate gets to win one primary as a door prize just for entering the race. The more apt analysis is that Fred, Rudy and Duncan are just looking for an appropriate and momentous occasion to drop out. If Rudy isn’t even doing well in New York, he’s toast everywhere else.

    For McCain and Romney, both have acquired the stench of a loser, even though to Chris Matthews it probably smells like Aqua Velva.

  • By slowing the McCain “surge” and throwing the Republican race back into question, Mitt Romney’s surprise win in Michigan may also impact the Democratic race in favor of Barack Obama. The persistent McCain has been a source of growing concern for Democrats since his “comeback” began with Joe Lieberman’s endorsement in New Hampshire last month, and with that concern has come a growing sense at least among some Democrats that Hillary Clinton might be a safer choice against such a supposedly formidable opponent. Had McCain won in Michigan as widely expected, increased fear of the “McCain Factor” among Democrats might have driven many would-be Obama voters into the Clinton camp. Having lost to Romney by a significant margin, however, McCain suddenly doesn’t seem quite so formidable after all. The more divided Republicans remain, the more confident Democrats will feel regarding their chances in November. This confidence seems likely to work in Obama’s favor.

  • Re # 16.

    And here I thought everybody agreed that Hillary was the most vunerable to McCain, so a McCain surge meant Obama was a better choice.

    Is this sort of like “everything is good for Rudy” analysis?

  • Petorado, you always crack me up.

    By the bye, how in hell does somebody who won one out of three have “momentum”? If you put three rubber balls side by side, and on separate occasions move each an equal distance at an equal velocity, which one has momentum? I’m afraid I just don’t see it; is it Rovian math?

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