Tuesday’s campaign round-up

February 5, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* If recent fundraising is indicative of a larger trend, Barack Obama is moving in the right direction in the race for the Democratic nomination. Last week, Obama announced he’d raised $32 million in January. By way of contrast, Hillary Clinton’s campaign announced yesterday that she’d collected “about $13.5 million” over the same month. Ordinarily, Clinton’s haul would be pretty impressive, but up against Obama’s numbers, it suggests he has the momentum.

* Speaking of money, Republicans’ financial troubles keep getting worse. Dems are out fundraising Republicans at the presidential level (no one in the GOP field comes close to Clinton and Obama); the House level (by Jan. 1, the DCCC had seven times the cash on hand as the NRCC); and the Senate level (the DSCC ended the year with more than $29 million in the bank, while the NRSC ended with $12 million).

* Michelle Obama caused a stir yesterday after a “Good Morning America” appearance in which she said she’d “have to think about” whether she’d support a Democratic ticket with Clinton as the nominee. And while that drew plenty of criticism, it’s worth noting that Michelle Obama quickly followed this up by explaining, “Everyone in this party is going to work hard for whoever the nominee is. I think we’re all working for the same thing.”

* Bill Clinton said yesterday that Barack Obama believes “affordable quality health care for all Americans” is “not that important.” Clinton and Obama have slightly different approaches on how to get there, but I’m pretty sure that’s not true.

* Speaking of the former president, he has some predictions for the day: “Bill thinks Hillary will win in NY, NJ, AR, TN, OK, CA and ID. Clinton thinks Obama will [win] in IL, CO, MN, AL and GA. He’s not sure about MO, MA and CT. (He’s missing New Mexico.)”

* If you believe SurveyUSA, Clinton is set to win California and Missouri. If you believe Zogby, Obama is set to win the same two states.

* Will the weather affect the Super Tuesday results? “Thunderstorms and snowstorms spread across the eastern half of the nation Tuesday, making travel miserable for voters in states holding primaries and causing flooding that chased some people from homes in Indiana.”

* New conservative meme: “Responding to Bob Dole’s letter to Rush Limbaugh, Mitt Romney said this morning on ‘Fox & Friends’ that there were similarities between the GOP’s ’96 standard-bearer and the current Republican front-runner. ‘Well, it’s probably the last person I would have wanted write a letter for me,’ Romney said. ‘I think there are a lot of folks who tend to think that maybe John McCain’s race is a bit like Bob Dole’s race. That it’s the guy who’s next in line, the inevitable choice.'”

* Ugh: “As voters head to the polls today to participate in the most crowded primary day in history, with the most delegates at stake and a tightening Democratic contest, some are concerned that there could be chaos at the polling booths with malfunctioning machines and disputed results. Six states, including New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Arkansas, Delaware and Tennessee, are ‘considered at high risk for having election results affected by machine malfunction or tampering,’ according to a report by Common Cause and the Verified Voting Foundation, nonprofit groups committed to accountable politics.”

* And on a related note, keep an eye on this voting problem in Los Angeles: “Turns out that in Los Angeles County, if a DTS voter requests their Democratic ballot and casts their vote, but does NOT mark ‘Democratic’ in the appropriate space, the vote will indeed not be counted. The ballot will go through the scan-tron machine, not register as a counted vote, AND will not spit back out for the voter to fix. In LA County, they feed the ballot through the tabulator right in front of the voter, presumably to prevent errors just like this. But this one doesn’t get caught in all the tests.”

The L.A. County ballots are very clear and understandable (at least the English version is). If people follow instructions there should be no problem.

  • I was told at my polling place in Illinois that if I voted for the candidate, but did not vote for their delegates that my vote would not count.

    For the sake of old people in my state, I hope that everyone is getting clear instructions on this everywhere.

  • We’re supposed to be the most advanced country in the world, but we can’t figure out how to conduct a reliable election. These voting machine issues are a fucking disgrace. I want my paper receipt!

  • A shout-out to Andrew in Missouri.

    I’m one vote in Georgia for Obama (and my wife makes two).

    Yes, we can.

  • I agree that Bob Dole wasn’t the guy to write that letter. Conservatives weren’t all that big on his presidential campaign to begin with, and he lost against the guy they hated most. For conservatives, Bob Dole was one of the problems with Republicans, and McCain’s an even bigger problem for that same reason. If anything, Bob Dole may have hurt McCain slightly with his support. Romney’s right. Like McCain, Dole wasn’t picked because he was the right guy, but because the right guy wasn’t there and Dole was the best substitute from a bad field (not that this helps Mitt at all).

    The truth is that, despite all their talk of imagining that they’d hold the Whitehouse forever, Bush was the only decent presidential choice they’ve had since Reagan, and even Bush was a joke who barely got elected twice using the best marketing machine in the world. And the problem is that Republicans are so corrupt that it’s dangerous for their presidents to know what’s actually going on, yet it’s hard for them to find an empty suit who doesn’t look like an emptysuit. They really need to find another guy who can lie without knowing that he’s lying.

  • * Speaking of the former president, he has some predictions for the day: “Bill thinks Hillary will win in NY, NJ, AR, TN, OK, CA and ID. Clinton thinks Obama will [win] in IL, CO, MN, AL and GA. He’s not sure about MO, MA and CT. (He’s missing New Mexico.)”

    …and Alaska!

  • Gridlock @ 2: “I was told at my polling place in Illinois that if I voted for the candidate, but did not vote for their delegates that my vote would not count.”

    I sure hope that is not true. If the Illinois ballot looks like the WV one, it will have several choices of delegates for each candidate, none of whom campaign. How would one know why to prefer one over the other.

    Also isn’t it interesting that the MSM keeps treating the race as even between Dems and Reps, without ever pointing out the difference in crowd sizes? Chris Matthews last night gave his top power rating to McCain, with Obama and Clinton 2nd & 3rd. His rationale was that the two Dems were in a close race. By any chance do they call him Tweety because of his brain capacity?

  • What Chris said at #5!

    Rectum @ #1 said: “The L.A. County ballots are very clear and understandable (at least the English version is). If people follow instructions there should be no problem.”

    Everyone knows that people don’t follow instructions. They don’t even read instructions. Smart people, stupid people, it doesn’t matter. They don’t follow instructions. If the goal of the electoral process is to give people lots of hoops to jump through to make their votes count, then LA has a great system. If the goal is to make it easy to vote, and easy to learn the intent of the voter, then LA’s system sucks. Lots of other systems suck too.

    I know that we should never infer a conspiracy when simple stupidity is a sufficient explanation. But in the realm of voting there is just too much of this crap going on for simple stupidity to explain it. Again, it’s like Chris said @ #5.

  • Agreed with ROTFL #3. Bill’s faux pas have become a daily nuisance. He’d be much more of an asset to his party and his wife’s candidacy if he went on the warpath against the Republicans rather than Barack. Give the man a rabies shot and set him in the right direction. His legacy as a good president is getting tarnished with every smarmy comment.

  • I sure hope that is not true. If the Illinois ballot looks like the WV one, it will have several choices of delegates for each candidate, none of whom campaign. How would one know why to prefer one over the other. -danp

    The candidate the delegates support were clearly marked on the Illinois ballot.

  • All the weather-related voting problems should point out the benefits of absentee voting, which should be encouraged rather than turned into a boogeyman as it seems to be talked about lately. I’ve voted absentee for years and wouldn’t trade it for anything. Pop the ballot in the mail and you’re done. Then no matter what the weather does you can rest easy, or as easy as anyone can in these uncertain times.

  • Doesn’t Michelle Obama know you’re not supposed to think about which party you vote for. Do it without thinking!

    there were similarities between the GOP’s ‘96 standard-bearer and the current Republican front-runner.

    Old guys, arms don’t work, likely to lose to a Democrat… glad I’m not the only one who noticed.

  • I love the way those who are so suspicious of the mainstream media are so quick to adhere to the “veracity” of their reporting when it comes to how they edit and characterize Bill Clinton’s comments on the campaign trail.

    Another beautiful thing. The Saintly Ones embrace Ted Kennedy as a sage party leader because they like his endorsement – yet the man who stands in his shadow in every single category of debauchery and lying to save his adulterous ass is tarred as THE unworthy adulterous liar. Oh, well, if party sage TK had endorsed Hillary, the holy progressiver-than-thous here would undoubtedly have extended the other side of their face to him as well.

  • in re money:
    I read that Obama’s money came mostly from small donors, Clinton’s from maxed out contributors.
    Has anyone seen any figure on the number of donors, vs amount of donations?

  • Hey Steve,

    I really do not understand how (seemingly) everyone is getting the Michelle Obama-Good Morning America story so wrong.

    She did NOT say that she would “not support Clinton” if she were the nominee. When Michelle said that she’d have to think about it, she was responding to the question “would you WORK to support Sen. Clinton” if she were the nominee.

    Working for a candidate and simply supporting (or voting for) a candidate or two very different things.

    Now, If people are upset with Michelle for not coming out and saying that she would without hesitation work to elect Sen. Clinton, then that’s fair.

    However, your paragraph above and the headline that has been on TPM’s front page since yesterday both definitely imply (and actually come out and say) that she would not “support” Sen.Clinton.

    I cannot tell you how many angry (and some disturbingly hateful) comments I have read over at TPM EC and the the Huffington Post (which carried the same headline), from people believing that Michelle would not commit to supporting (VOTING for) the Democrat nominee.

    In an update on his post on the TPM front page, David Kurtz stated (after others commenters complained) that he saw little difference between “working” to support a candidate and “supporting” a candidate. Personally, I find it a bit shocking that he does not see the difference.

    However, what IS absolutely clear is that, based on all the comments that I have read, a majority of people who read those headlines (including myself until I actually watched the clip) believed that Michelle said that she would have to think about voting for Sen. Clinton if she were the nominee.

    PLEASE correct this in your bullet above. And if you have any leeway with Josh and/or David over at TPM, please get them to take down that very misleading headline.

    And I’m sorry that this comment is so long; but it seems like such an obvious and straight-forward comment/question, that I am having trouble understanding how news blogs for which I have so much respect (like this site and TPM) got this so wrong.

    Thanks!

  • Gridlock, they are not advising any such thing and I did not so I suppose my vote will not count.

    This is ridiculous! How could they not say something to advise that our votes would be disregarded? Are you sure about that? It said on the ballot to select up to five delegates but didn’t say that they had to match the candidate you selected.

    Talk about not happy.

  • There are two elections in Illinois. The first is what used to be known as “presidential preference,” or the “beauty contest.” That one has the names of the candidates for president. The results from that race are what will appear on your TV screens tonight. The other is to determine who will be the members of the Illinois delegations to the nominating conventions. After each name is the name of the presidential candidate that delegate will be pledged to if elected. Curiously, even though Edwards, Dodd, etc. are still on the preference ballot, there were only Cllinton and Obama delegates on that portion of the ballot.

    If enough of those who prefer one candidate fail to vote in the election for that candidate’s delegates, that candidate could win the beauty contest but not have any pledged delegates. Which would actually matter if the nominee is still unknown as the convention begins.

    Pay attention to your damn ballots, people. That’s really not too much to ask. Look what happened in 2000 when Pat Buchanan got all those votes in West Palm Beach and thousands spoiled their ballots in Jacksonville by “voting every page.” And of course, I can’t mention those folks without mentioning a different kind of paying attention; as Eric Alterman always says, “Thanks again, Ralph!”

  • Bottom Line:

    Like all of you. I know that health care is the most critical, and important issue facing the American people. Now, and in the coming elections. And like the vast majority of the American people, I want HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law NOW! “Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care” free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See: http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm

    “HR 676:
    For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more.
    Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills.”

    But if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our current politicians to get HR 676 passed into law before the elections. We will have to identify, and replace all the politicians standing in the way of passage of HR 676. And, I think the best first place to start is with the politicians that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bills for the kids. Passed by congress twice.

    But what about the President. It was Bush after all that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bill passed by congress to assure more health coverage for Americas kids. So which of the presidential hopefuls do I think will be most supportive of implementing the demand of the majority of the American people to have HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law immediately!

    We have some very fine presidential candidates who would make good presidents. But none of the top Presidential candidates directly support HR 676, the only true Universal Health Care plan. So I am supporting Hillary Clinton. She is the only top candidate that has ever actually fought for universal health care before.

    I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven’t forgotten her heroic effort. If any Presidential hopeful for universal health care deserves my support, it’s her.

    Also, if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our government to give us HR 676 which we all so desperately need NOW! Then we will need the most skilled politician we can get on our side to broker the best health care plan for the American people that we can get. Though it will be less than we need, and less than we deserve. The politician I think to best do this is Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s are probably the most skilled politicians in American history.

    The insurance industry, and medical industry that has been ripping you off, and killing you has given Hillary Clinton so much money because they fear her. They have also given Barack Obama so much money because they fear Hillary Clinton. They think they can manipulate Barack Obama against the best interest of the American people better than they can manipulate Hillary Clinton. There is no race issue with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s are the poster family for how African Americans want white people to be towards African Americans.

    As always, African Americans are suffering, and dieing in this health care crisis at a much higher rate than any other group in America. The last time there was any significant drop in the African American death rate was when Bill Clinton was president.

    My fellow Americans, you are dieing needlessly at an astounding rate. In higher numbers than any other people in the developed world. Rich, and poor a like. Insured, and uninsured. Men, women, children, and babies. And we the American people must stop it. And fix it NOW! Keep Fighting!!! Never! give up hope. There are millions of lives at stake. Bless you all… You are doing great!

  • On the IL ballot, ALL the delegates for all the people who were, at the time of printing, running were on the ballot. There were delegates for Edwards and others.

    This is my first time voting in a primary and apparently for all I know, I don’t know anything. There were no instructions relating to delegates and I guess I don’t understand the delegate process enough to have figured it out.

    Jeez, and I am supposedly informed.

  • When the pollsters first missed the mark in Iowa, the social media research company I work for decided to see if the blogosphere was as wrong as the traditional media. Using a more primitive version of our current methodology, we were pleasantly surprised to see that a measurement of blog sentiment and activity would have correctly (if narrowly) predicted an Obama win. Our theory as to why this is: people so engaged in the political process that they publicly blog about their favorite candidates could fairly represent those who are engaged enough to vote in the primaries and caucuses at all. We followed 5 states for Super Tuesday and made overall and specific predictions, which can be found here, if you’re interested:
    http://blog.collectiveintellect.com/2008/02/05/super-tuesday-blogosphere-predicts-mccain-obama-as-winners/

  • To #9 Danp

    Complements of ‘The Urban Dictionary’

    Tweety – A small yellow bird with a speech impediment generally using a ‘t’ for the first sound of every word spoken.

    Tweety – Nickname for Chris Matthews, host of ‘Hardball.’ His staff nicknamed him Tweety Bird because of the shade of yellow he dyes his hair. First divulged at mediawhoresonline.com

    Tweety – Tweety is a person with a retainer causing them to have a lisp

    tweety – The definition of a low class person. A term used to decribe someone who is dirty and of low class. Likely to be of caucasian backround.

    All of these sound better than ‘white man-crushing republican asshole’

  • Thanks for correcting the record on Michelle Obama’s Hillary comment. It’s very easy to take it out of context without the whole thing.
    And Bill Clinton needs to STFU. A mandate does not equal universal health care and to claim that just because Obama isn’t insisting on a mandate means that he doesn’t care about health care is a flat out lie. I expect to be lied to by Karl Rove, not by the titular leader of MY party. Please, make it stop! Do not want!

  • Gridlock @2:
    I was told at my polling place in Illinois that if I voted for the candidate, but did not vote for their delegates that my vote would not count.

    For the sake of old people in my state, I hope that everyone is getting clear instructions on this everywhere.

    I voted early because I’m out-of-state at the moment, but I received no such instruction — I was at the Board of Elections site in the Daley Center, too, where presumably they know what’s going on.

    I wonder if the machines force voters to pick delegates to continue or not.

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