How super is Super Tuesday?

February 5, 2008

I’m getting ready to step away from my desk for a little while, but as of this minute, five states have been called on the Democratic side…

Obama is projected to win Georgia and Illinois;

Clinton is projected to win Arkansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

…and eight states on the Republican side.

McCain will win Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, and New Jersey;

Huckabee will win Arkansas, Georgia, and West Virginia;

Romney will win his home state of Massachusetts.

What about delegates? I haven’t the foggiest idea yet.

So far, any big surprises? Predictions? Tirades? Let’s see hear it.

We often talk about how Edwards and Kucinich were ignored to death by the press – but Huckabee has about as big a complaint. So far he was won 3 states, and CNN.com’s subheadline is still how many McCain has won, and Romney winning Massachusetts – Huckabee isn’t mentioned.

  • not to swan (if y’all would hurry up and comment it’d make it look better for me 🙂 ) but another thing I find interesting so far:

    the polls show a national race between Clinton and Obama very close, and even the collective polls of the Super Tuesday states were very close in the aggregate but I have been surprised that, at least in early returns, and with the exception of Connecticut, there really aren’t close individual states. There are big Obama wins and big Clinton wins that roughly average out to a draw, but I expected the individual state results to be closer in both directions.

  • zeitgeist… I had to laugh. Your #2 reminded me of an old Steely Dan tune…

    Hello one and all
    Was it you I used to know
    Can’t you hear me call
    On this old ham radio…

    Too tired for tirades.

  • zeitgeist – I think this has always been the unexpressed and unexplained caveat about national polls.

    Some of these states are so close, while some are really one-sided – so much for unity, huh?

    I think on the GOP side, Huckabee is probably the real story – I think this might be the writing on the wall for Romney. But what a choice – McCain or Romney? Ugh.

    And, if I can just chime in with something else that bugs the crap out of me – and that is the continuing emphasis by the media on the racial and gender composition of the vote.

  • Ok, CNN.com has gone absurd. Check this recent headline:

    Clinton winning Northeast, Obama taking South
    Democrats: CNN projects Clinton the winner in Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee; Obama wins Illinois, Alabama, Georgia

    Except most people I know would consider Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee to be in the South, and Illinois to not be in the south. Which is to say CNN’s headline is rendered meaningless by their own subhead.

  • zeitgeist – this is what happens when the media goes for the short headline.

    And I just saw NBC has called Utah for Obama, bu the percentages are: Clinton 44%, Obama 40% ??? Must be the new math.

    Goes with the new geography.

    Brian Williams now asking Huckabee if maybe there might be a McCain/Huckabee partnership in the offing. Huckabee wants to be pres. not VP.

  • Just heard Romney thanking his supporters somewhere. The guy was completely out of touch, running through the litany of rightwing delusions one after another and the crowd was so juiced they were almost talking in rightwing tongues. There are some scary people in this land.

  • Some of these states are so close, while some are really one-sided – so much for unity, huh? — Anne

    Not sure about that. Folks are expressing a choice tonight, but from all indications are still willing to support whomever gets the nod, which if true bodes well for unity in the general where it matters.

    …the continuing emphasis by the media on the racial and gender composition of the vote. — Anne

    I’m not one to defend the media very often, but the differences are often stark and some trends have definitely emerged. No way to know what they’ll mean, if anything, in the general, but they do seem to track in these primary battles.

  • beep52 – I guess I was just reacting badly to Ann Curry’s breathless reporting about these trends – maybe she was just trying to have her moment in the spotlight, but I just found it annoying – probably because they are trying so hard to explain something that may just be beyond them this election cycle.

  • And, if I can just chime in with something else that bugs the crap out of me – and that is the continuing emphasis by the media on the racial and gender composition of the vote. — Anne, @5

    That aspect of reporting might have its roots in the specialization of categories, which campaigns themselves like to have, so that they can appeal to a particular slice of society like “soccer moms” and “Nascar dads”. I don’t watch TV and am not going to try and chase info on newspapers’ websites. but I find such tid-bits — how are the women voting? the minorities? the young ones? — interesting. *Once* they’ve been pooled together into something more meaningful. Maybe by Thursday 🙂 Of course, as CB has reminded us a couple of times, some of those statistics are skewed from the word go, since Dems aren’t asked about their faith, for example, while Repubs are.

    I’m back from my training session (obviously ). What I’ve learnt (applies to VA only) is that:
    1) We haven’t had a double *presidential* primary ever before, so some of the rules were new even to those who’d been serving for decades. And the reason we have them at the same time but parallel is that the parties pay for the primaries and it’s cheaper to combine them, since two sets of poll-books doesn’t cost as much as having to pay the Election officers for two days. I’m glad *someone* is paying attention to balancing a budget 🙂
    2) There’ll be 5 Dems and 6 Repubs on the respective ballots, since there had been no official pullouts from some of the candidates. And all the votes will be counted, so if someone wants to vent their frustration and vote for Edwards or Giulliani it’s OK. Won’t do squat, delegate-wise, but might be cathartic for some.
    3) There’ll be no special bubbles for Indies to mark (a la LA); once you say which primary you want to vote in, you’re colour-coded all the way and the coding is done by the officials, not the disoriented voters. The whole thing gets a tad tricky if someone declares they want to vote in the Dem primary, get into the booth, take a look at the screen and say “oh, s***, that’s not my slate” but, even for such cases of cluelessness there’s a remedy (as long as they haven’t hit “record the vote” button.
    4) There’s no way to confirm that, even though your screen tells you you’ve voted for McCain, the machine did, in fact, count your vote for him and not Ron Paul. You have to take it on trust. Partly in the machines themselves, but mostly in the people. The Electoral board (2 Dems, 1 Repub), the Registrar (Dem) and the precinct captains and their assistants (4 total, split half-and-half) make a test run of the machines by casting the first votes (5 AM; yikes! Me, I’ll be working the second shift, 13:00-to-closing. Grunts work shifts; big-wigs work full time. I like the concept ) and check for accuracy. That’s not to say that a machine couldn’t be programmed to record the first 50 votes correctly and the remaining 2000 any which way, but… We’re a very small town, where everyone knows everyone else and where even most of the Repubs are kinda nice 🙂 In fact, as we were leaving, the Secretary of the Electoral Board (the lone Repub) thanked us all again and said: “Next Tuesday. Ready to go!” To which he got several “All fired up!” responses, whereupon all those responding that way looked at the others with great surprise.

    Is it tomorrow yet? I’ve been rambling to kill time, but what I really want to know is the division of the spoils (ie delegates)

  • libra – are you working the election in VA next week? I’m working my local precinct as an assistant. chief judge – we have the Diebold machines, but MD will go to – back to – optical scanning with a paper ballot that can be counted – with luck by the 2010 mid-terms.

    With both GOP and Dem contests up in the air, we are looking for heavy turnout. Gonna be a long, long day – I figure to be at the precinct by 5 am to prepare for 7 am opening, and polls don’t close until 8 pm.

  • Anne, @12,

    Yeah, I’ll be there, second-shift, with the poll-book (a part of it) being my assignment. The chiefs and assistants have to work the whole day — 5AM to ca 20:00-20:30 (whenever the counting is done; the polls close at 7, but it’s a long way to Tipperary) — and I just couldn’t face getting up at 4AM, since I’m a night-owl and don’t get to bed till 2-3AM. 40yrs ago, at 18, I could have skipped a night’s sleep and function just fine; these days I cannot. Besides, I’ve only signed up to serve 18months ago, when Bush’s reign got to be just too much to stomach; until then, I voted, but didn’t do much otherwise. Didn’t even pay much attention to politics, having been turned off them back in Poland (where you could vote, but couldn’t elect). And American politics in particular seemed kinda strange and hard to understand (like baseball and your football. If I get *really* pied-eyed, I can, *almost* get an idea what’s going on). But, with Bush at helm, it was either to grab a pitchfork and start marching towards DC, or get involved….So, I got involved; at my age, it’s a more appropriate course of action 🙂

    We expect a very heavy turnout also. VA is off-cycle for State elections, so we had a taste this past November. We ran out of “I voted” stickers *twice* and, by 5PM — 2hrs before closing — so had the Registrar 🙂 The energy level really *is* gaining strength with every cycle. In Nov ’06 (when I was still on the observer list for elections and spent the rest of the day shilling for Webb), I was told we had a greater turnout than usual. November ’07, we had a turnout greater than Nov ’06. November ’08 looks like every grandma will be wheeled out to vote 🙂

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