Wednesday’s campaign round-up

February 6, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* So, who ended up winning New Mexico’s Democratic primary last night? As of this morning, with 98% of the precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by about 100 votes. There are, however, almost 17,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted. (To be sure, it’s not exactly important either way, but I mention it because I know the campaigns are looking for additional bragging rights.)

* MSNBC had a pretty good summary of the delegate situation as of now: “By our estimates, [Obama] picked up 840 to 849 delegates versus 829-838 for Clinton; the Obama camp projects winning by nine delegates (845-836)…. Yet with Clinton’s overall superdelegate lead (259-170, based on the lists they’ve released to us), and when you toss in the 63-48 lead Obama had among pledged delegates going into Super Tuesday, it appears Clinton has about 70 more overall delegates than Obama does (1140-1150 for Clinton versus 1070 to 1080 for Obama). It’s that close, folks.”

* What’s Romney’s next move? “Mitt Romney and top aides and advisers plan to huddle Wednesday to discuss the future of his campaign, including whether to launch an advertising buy in upcoming primary states. Romney vowed late Tuesday to press on, though top advisers acknowledged the delegate match was daunting. ‘It is tough to saddle up this AM,’ said one top Romney adviser who spoke only on condition of anonymity.”

* Speaking of Romney: “Republican campaign operatives call it the Gramm-o-meter, the money a candidate spends per delegate won, in honor of Phil Gramm, the former Texas senator who spent $25 million and won just 10 delegates, or $2.5 million per, in 1996. By Republican strategist Alex Vogel’s calculation, Mitt Romney is giving Gramm a run for his money. The former Massachusetts governor has spent $1.16 million per delegate, a rate that would cost him $1.33 billion to win the nomination.”

* Following a few unexpected victories yesterday, Huckabee took a victory lap on several morning shows: “Huckabee said he performed well despite being ruled out by talk radio hosts and ‘the pundits,’ and that he won states the eventual GOP nominee must win in November. Denied making a deal with McCain in West Virginia and accused Romney of ‘whining’ about the results. Continued to speak only positively of McCain, and said on NBC that no one turns the vice presidency down. Claimed he’s had a strong influx of online donations.”

* How well did McCain do in California yesterday? He won 51 of the state’s 53 congressional districts.

* Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, has switched from supporting John Edwards to Barack Obama.

* With the Nebraska caucuses coming up, Obama is traveling to Omaha tomorrow to make his pitch, making him the first (and so far, only) candidate to visit the state this year. Obama already enjoys the support of Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Nebraska’s most powerful Dem.

* At some recent John McCain campaign rallies, John Mellencamp’s “Our Country” and “Pink Houses” have been booming out over the speakers. This week, Mellencamp asked the McCain campaign to stop playing his songs at its events.

The real winner of Super Tuesday was the Democratic party. By having neither candidate deliver a knockout blow, the excitement will only ramp up and keep its inexorable momentum through to the convention. Large crowds will continue to turn out and more and more media intensity will linger on the Democrats while the Republican contest now looks to be obvious and largely done. Just think of this as American Idol on steroids with the American public expending its energies on Democrats as we have not seen in this generation.

  • With the Nebraska caucuses coming up, Obama is traveling to Omaha tomorrow to make his pitch, making him the first (and so far, only) candidate to visit the state this year. Obama already enjoys the support of Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Nebraska’s most powerful Dem.

    I like it. I heard tell he’s lost 5 pounds in the last two weeks. Cool. The kids has got his game legs on. He needs to keep moving. Keep pushing the ball and spreading the court. Don’t sit down for a moment. That’s not your game son… Run man run…

  • One last thing:
    Spaceship Earth to Gore…
    Spaceship Earth to Gore…
    Are you reading us Mr. Gore?
    Spaceship Earth to Gore…
    Spaceship Earth to Gore…

  • ROTF, I think that is probably wise advice for Obama; still, I gotta think that if we could just rerun the Los Angeles CNN debate 24/7 spectrum-wide for a week (even better – alternate it with the immediately preceding Republican debate), the re-registrations from Rep to Dem across the country would leave voter registrars’ being treated for exhaustion.

  • “This week, Mellencamp asked the McCain campaign to stop playing his songs at its events.”

    Oh, that is too funny.

    Sorry ROTF, but I think you and my liberal west coast brother are going to have to accept that Gore isn’t getting in.

  • The Democratic race is starting to feel like the recent Super Bowl. Lots of heavy hitting, numerous lead changes, and no resolution until the final seconds. Life imitating life, one might say. 😉

  • “This week, Mellencamp asked the McCain campaign to stop playing his songs at its events.”

    I wonder if the Who want to weigh in on Republicans using “We won’t get fooled again”, as Bush did in 2000.

  • Huh… Funny item from Salon.com . According to them, Obama heavily carried College graduates, while Hillary won the High School graduate population…

    So, just to stir things up, does this mean that stupid people support Hillary? 😉

  • The Republicans don’t have a perfect candidate for the conservative base. Romney is sort of conservative right now but, aside from being a Mormon, was fairly liberal just a few years ago.

    However, it seems that a number of the Republicans running were exactly what the conservative base should have liked.

    Giuliani – liberal on social issues
    Romney – used to be liberal on many issues
    Huckabee – was too much of a good Christian to be considered ‘conservative’ on issues of compassion like treating children of illegal aliens as God’s children
    McCain – worked with Democrats on too many issues and thinks we should follow the law and not torture people
    Paul – too libertarian for the base and ‘wrong’ on Iraq
    Thompson, Fred – seemed to fit the bill except Nixon thought he was stupid and might have been a little to moderate.
    Gingrich – the nomination could have been his but he decided making money was more important than winning the nomination and losing the general election
    Hunter – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base?
    Frist – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base?
    Gilmore – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base?
    Brownback – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base?
    Trancredo – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base? OK, the man is a lunatic but he still fits the mold, doesn’t he?
    Thompson, Tommy – Why isn’t he a perfect candidate? Where does he disagree with the base?

    At least 6 and maybe 8 people either were actually running or giving serious consideration to running who were better candidates for the conservative base than Romney.

    Why did it take until January of 2008 for the base to wake up and realize they didn’t like any of the candidates who were still running? Why did the conservative base rally around Romney when they had, past tense, so many better candidates to choose from?

  • The question is, will Gore endorse?

    Al Giordano, who blogs at The Field and who predicted the Kerry and Kennedy endorsements for Obama is saying that, based on his sources, Al Gore will endorse Obama around February 12th.

  • Castor Troy, I’ll take from your post that you are a high school graduate then!!!
    To assume that a college grad is “smarter” than a high school grad shows YOUR stupidity.

    MANY HS grads are just as smart, if not smarter, than college grads. Finances are more of a deciding factor as to whether one goes to college or not….not how smart or “stupid” they are!
    I’ve met some pretty stupid college grads in my life (many of them liberals)! If YOU are a college grad, then I’ve just encountered another “stupid” college grad!

  • * Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, has switched from supporting John Edwards to Barack Obama.

    Any word from the NY chapter of NOW? /snark

    (sorry I just couldn’t resist, especially since I have heard no follow-up retraction of that nonsense)

  • Carry– that was meant totally tongue-in-cheek…

    But, for the record, I did things the hard way. I enlisted in the Army at 17, straight out of High School. Went to work for the Government as a civilian after my service, starting out in clerical work, and working up to senior analyst work, where I am now, at 27. In late ’04, I started going to night school, and just completed a dual-major in English and Business Administration this past December.

    So, being one of the folks who earned their way up through the school of hard knocks, I figure it’s okay to play around a little!

    No offense meant, all around. I just found it to be an interesting juxtapositioning of data!

  • On February 6th, 2008 at 12:36 pm, Castor Troy said:
    Huh… Funny item from Salon.com . According to them, Obama heavily carried College graduates, while Hillary won the High School graduate population…

    So, just to stir things up, does this mean that stupid people support Hillary?

    I really hate it when education is seen as the same thing as intelligence. It’s a stereotype that shouldn’t be perpetuated.

  • listening to rush’s head explode — now he’s trying to sell evangelicals on romney. hysterical. a friend said “listening to this is like sitting by the radiator on a cold night.” ooo so good!

  • Isn’t it about time we got some sort of national consistency in how we pick our presidents? Why do we continue to (dys)function as if we’re a bunch of small independent confederated states identifying with our statehood instead of our nationhood? That was how it was back in the 1700s, but could we please let it go and get some common sense into our nominating system? Please? Please!!

  • I concur with Petrado #1. In communications there’s almost no such thing as too much media – exceptions being fairly obvious: murder and child molestation, neither of which are expected from the frontrunners.

    Having said that it’s going to be interesting to see if the media spin the Democratic candidates as being on the offensive or defensive, and miss the big picture – two incredible candidates who are asking a big question: What type of change do we want? Do we want tough and skilled partisanship or visionary leadership? What kind of results will each of these choices produce, especially since their policy positions are nearly identical?

    The other benefit of a campaign that stays competitive is that Hillary and Barack seem to be taking on some of the strengths of the other. Barack seems to be toughening. Hillary seems to be mellowing and speaking more of her vision. If this process reaches into the living rooms of America it will transform the image of the Democratic Party, which has been seen as fractious and unattuned to the lives of the lower middle-class for the past several decades. (NAFTA and Welfare Reform having cemented some of that perception.)

    Also, some of the demographics that Obama has not connected with will have enough time to get acquainted. It will be interesting to see if his message will reach them. Since it’s unlikely that Hillary will connect with independents, let alone moderate Republicans – the way Obama has, that could be a turning point. It should be fascinating to see how the Clinton campaign responds.

    All in all it seems likely to be dynamic and exciting.

  • Regardless of what Romney spends, I doubt that his Gramm-o-meter reading will never get close to 9ui11ian’s: $50 million for 1 delegate.

  • At some recent John McCain campaign rallies, John Mellencamp’s “Our Country” and “Pink Houses” have been booming out over the speakers. This week, Mellencamp asked the McCain campaign to stop playing his songs at its events.

    In ’84, Mellencamp told Reagan not to use the song, too.

  • Good on Mellencamp. If he’s not supporting the candidate they have no right to play his music and I’m glad he called them on it.

    Every since I found out that moveon.org announced their members voted to back a candidate with 2/3 a majority vote…only to learn that less than 10% of its membership bothered to vote in that poll…it has changed how much credence I give these results. For instance, to say McCain won 51 of 53 districts in California…if I were to learn that only 10 or 20 people from many of those districts were the only ones to come out and vote, then it changes its weight considerably.

    Hukabee wants to be vice-president…anything to get into the executive office, to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Thank God, I will never have to worry about either of these two ever becoming president.

    Whether Obama was in the race or not, the same huge outpouring of voters would still be happening out of necessity. Americans want a new direction, to change what this administration has done to the nation. The republicans under the influence of Rove and Cheney tried to get a 100yr. one party rule by uniting with the DoJ and the judiciary branch to make the legislative branch powerless. They blew it and all their plans became a disaster. Now voters want them out and they have come out in droves to restore our democracy and change America’s direction from its current crisis.
    There’s a difference between revenge and justice…between payback and accountability.
    Everyday Pelosi and Conyers hesitate more people scream out from being tortured…more people die…more families are ruined…more terrorists are created…more signing statements from the Bush to ignore the law…and the more debt our country incurs. According to Pelosi’s philosophy we should not hold elections either as they detract from “policy making”. Don’t get too distracted by the campaigns to miss what Bush is doing.

  • Big Win for Obama last night. He has shown that he is the people’s choice. Americans are tired of the Stank of Clinton. Time to turn the page. We need a president we can have pride in, not shame. We need a president we can trust, not one that is going to sell pardons to the IRS’s most wanted for her own personal gain.

    Hillary blew that national 20 pt lead in the polls the way Jennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky blew her husband.

  • Of course Al Gore is going to endorse Obama.

    If Slick Willy could have kept his little willy in his pants, and didn’t sell pardons to our nation’s largest tax evaders, Al Gore would have walked away with a landslide 2000 victory.

    Clinton’s Evil ways hurt Al Gore more than anybody else in the party.

  • “At some recent John McCain campaign rallies, John Mellencamp’s “Our Country” and “Pink Houses” have been booming out over the speakers.”

    don’t these guys running campaigns ever listen to the words of the songs they want to appropriate? recall reagan using springsteen’s “born in the usa” in ’84. and i seem to recall navy recruitment was once looking into using the village people’s song “in the navy” as a theme. that would have been too much fun!

  • mellowjohn wrote: “don’t these guys running campaigns ever listen to the words of the songs they want to appropriate?”

    I think a WaPo article made the same point about Clinton’s use of “Taking Care of Business”, which is pretty much an ode to slackerhood. 😉

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