For the past couple of weeks, Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has been relying on what I call the “asterisk strategy.” Every Clinton victory is a sign of strength and long-term success, but every Obama victory doesn’t really count because it comes with an asterisk.
Obama won Washington? That doesn’t count; it’s a caucus state.
Obama won Nebraska? That doesn’t count, because he spent more money there.
Obama won South Carolina and Louisiana? Those don’t count, because the states’ large African-American populations give him a built-in advantage.
Obama won Illinois? That doesn’t count; it’s his home state.
Obama won Connecticut? That doesn’t count; he fared less well among traditional Democratic constituencies.
Clinton was making the case for asterisks as recently as Monday, speaking to a poli-sci class at the University of Virginia, and dismissing the value of caucuses. “If you show up at a caucus, you’re highly motivated and often times very much [fixated] on one issue or a certain ideological position.” According to one report, “Clinton also bragged Monday that her support among voters earning less than $50,000 a year better equipped her to wage economic warfare against John McCain.”
Obviously, yesterday’s results in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are harder to spin, because the asterisks don’t apply.
What I can’t quite wrap my head around is why Clinton hasn’t done more to contest these contests. Her criticism of caucuses in general seems more than fair — indeed, I largely agree with all of her concerns — but this is the process through which Dems are going to pick a nominee. When one candidate wins a caucus state and picks up more delegates for the convention, it doesn’t much matter when the candidate who came in second says, “But I don’t like caucuses.” The preference is irrelevant.
I get the impression that the Clinton campaign, after Super Tuesday, came up with a strategy: batten down the hatches, wait for March 4, and hope the storm that blows over doesn’t do too much damage. It’s an approach that seems more than a little flawed.
Indeed, we’re seeing the consequences of it now. Obama has won eight contests over the course of four days and has taken a delegate lead that may ultimately prove to be insurmountable. In the meantime, Clinton’s campaign manager has left, her deputy campaign manager has left, and two staffers from the campaign’s online team have left. Even die-hard supporters are starting to feel antsy.
It’s not too late — a lot can happen between now and March 4 — but I think we’re going to see a lot more quotes like this one in the coming days: “As one Democratic superdelegate, who has endorsed her, put it fatalistically, ‘I don’t see any strategy, any way that she can pull it out.'”
We heard some similar pronouncements when Obama had a double-digit lead a few days before the New Hampshire primary. This is clearly worse.