It would certainly be an exaggeration to describe today as a “Super Tuesday,” but with four primaries and 370 pledged delegates at stake, today is the biggest day on the Democratic nominating calendar since the actual Super Tuesday a month ago.
Gaming out the various scenarios is tricky, not only because the results are unpredictable, but because so much of the aftermath will be based on expectations, perceptions, and spin. It’s probably a good idea to consider the scenarios now.
Scenario #1: Obama wins Texas and Ohio
Given all of the recent polls and media attention that’s cut Clinton’s way, this seems highly unlikely. In fact, I haven’t seen or heard a single political observer anywhere who thinks this outcome is even possible. If, however, it comes to pass, Obama winning Clinton’s two firewall states will end the race for the Democratic nomination, and Clinton will almost certainly drop out fairly quickly. The margin wouldn’t make much difference — whether Obama ekes out narrow victories or cruises to easy wins, if he takes both, it’s over. But given how improbable this….
Scenario #2: Clinton wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas
A few weeks ago, the conventional wisdom suggested (indeed, Bill Clinton said rather explicitly) that Clinton needed to win both of her firewall states in order to stay competitive. The CW has apparently shifted of late, and the Clinton campaign now believes she can afford to lose one firewall state and stay in the race anyway. (Clinton boasted yesterday that she’s “just getting warmed up.”)
Given Ohio’s general-election importance, Clinton would likely say that her success in the state justifies staying in the race, and should serve as evidence of her stopping Obama’s momentum. Obama’s campaign would argue, meanwhile, that a Clinton defeat in Texas makes it practically impossible for her to be the nominee, and dragging the process out any further would only help Republicans. Given the importance Clinton placed on Texas, Obama’s spin may very well rule the day if this occurs.
Scenario #3: Clinton wins Ohio and Texas
Given the recent polls, this scenario — the firewall strategy the Clinton campaign hatched several weeks ago — appears increasingly plausible. Clinton had huge leads in both Ohio and Texas as of Feb. 12, when the campaign decided Ohio and Texas would be fail-safe states, and though those leads evaporated last week, her attacks on Obama seem to have given Clinton a noticeable and significant boost in both states in recent days.
As a matter of counting delegates, success in Ohio and Texas may not be enough to help Clinton catch Obama before the convention, but it’s simply not realistic to think Clinton would drop out after winning these two major contests. On the contrary, if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, the race for the nomination will undoubtedly continue until at least April 22 — six weeks away — when Pennsylvania hosts its primary, making John McCain and the GOP very happy.
Of course, at the risk of driving everyone batty, “winning” Texas is a little hard to explain. Publius noted yesterday that there’s “no state where the popular vote tally bears less relation to the ultimate delegate count than Texas.”
For one, winning the popular vote matters less than winning the heavily-weighted districts. And as most people now know, those districts are Obama-friendly territory. Second, the post-election caucus results (which provide roughly a third of the delegates) can’t possibly be known for at least a week. From what I understand, each individual precinct has seven days to send in the results. So it will be a while.
All that said, I understand that popular vote totals create their own narrative, which in turn can materially affect the race. But still, the popular vote tomorrow night is a very imperfect proxy for the ultimate delegate winner. In fact, given the dynamics above, it’s virtually impossible for Clinton to “win” unless she blows Obama out, which is highly unlikely.
Can Clinton win more votes today in Texas and manage to come away with fewer delegates? Absolutely. And if that happens, who’s the “winner” in Texas? That will be open to considerable debate.