With March 4 behind, looking at the road ahead

March 5, 2008

Hillary Clinton, you’ve just won the Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island primaries. What are you going to do now? “I’m going to Wyoming!”

Sure, the political world was eyeing the March 4 contests for weeks, but those contests are so yesterday’s news. What’s next?

We have two contests in the next six days — the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday and the Mississippi primary on Tuesday. If Barack Obama is looking to pick up a few much-needed victories, and get the bitter taste out of his mouth after Texas and Ohio, he’ll probably enjoy the next week.

As March progresses, though, Clinton still has a tough climb, and Obama retains a formidable position.

The two contests this month — Wyoming and Mississippi — play to Obama’s strengths. One is a small Western caucus; the other has the most heavily African-American primary electorate in the nation.

Neither state offers huge delegate totals, but given that Obama is expected to win both fairly easily, it should help him pad his delegate lead a little.

After Mississippi, there are five full weeks in which nothing happens at all, except furious campaigning in Pennsylvania, which host its primary on April 22. Clinton goes into the contest favored, but God only knows what’s going to happen between now and then.

Clinton and Obama will constantly be battling for position, of course, but there are rumors that Obama has a couple of tricks up his sleeve.

For example, the Obama campaign never did get around to announcing exactly how much money it raised in February. Expect some kind of announcement this week that will be intended to help give Obama some positive press for a change.

Also, there may be some big superdelegate news on the horizon.

Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Tuesday morning, Tom Brokaw dropped a bombshell on Terry McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

“Somebody very close to the Obama campaign told me yesterday that they’ve got 50 [superdelegates] that they’ve identified who are ready to go public before too long,” Brokaw said. Off-camera, someone else from the show (it sounds like host Joe Scarborough) can be heard exclaiming, “Wow.” […]

If this is true, it would represent a major coup for Barack Obama’s campaign. The Associated Press’ delegate count has Obama and Clinton separated by just 100 total delegates, included pledged and superdelegates.

And then there’s the question about what kind of campaign tone Obama’s team may embrace moving forward. We talked earlier about some of the relentless attacks Clinton directed at Obama, but I noticed at least one hint that the Obama campaign is prepared to start playing by his opponent’s rules.

“We have not hesitated to draw distinctions between the candidates and we’ll continue to do that,” said Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod. “If Sen. Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we’ll join that debate. We’ll do it on our terms and in our own way but if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all that stuff issues, as I’ve said before I don’t know why they’d want to go there, but I guess that’s where they’ll take the race.”

And in case you’re really curious, after Pennsylvania, Guam will vote on May 3, Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky and Oregon on May 20, Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and Puerto Rico on June. Every contest except Guam and Puerto Rico is a primary, not a caucus. It’s a landscape that appears to give Obama a slight edge, but at this point, the delegate shift isn’t likely to matter much anyway.

Hillary the Loser – who won’t get the majority of delegates out of Tesas and didn’t win that many in Ohio, and is still losing the delegate count by an insurmountable number – had the gall on TV this morning to talk about “including” Obama on the ticket while the morons of the MSM acedt like she won something.

Vice President Clinton – nahhh – we need a VP who would be ready on Day One if something happened to the President.

  • According to MSNBC’s current projections, Hillary Clinton could net anywhere from seven to a bit over 10 delegates from yesterday’s elections. This, obviously, is hardly major progress, given Obama’s overall pledged delegate lead of roughly 150 or more.

    Obama is our Democratic nominee. From here on out, it’s merely a media side-show because Hillary is good for ratings.

  • Gee, I wonder why the media wants to keep the horse race going?

    Could it be they like all that commercial money?

    Nah.

  • But Tom, if something happened to President Obama on Day One, and (she-whom-we-do-not-name) is the veep, then she can play Al Haig (remember him?), come running into the Oval Office, and declare that “I’m in charge here!”

  • I think the big loser from yesterday is the Momentum Meme. We keep being told which candidate has momentum, and when that momentum doesn’t win the day for the person who supposedly has it, we’re told this was a crushing defeat for them. Hell, Huckabee had staked his entirely candidacy upon supposed momentum from Iowa. Had he not stupidly believed that Iowa Momentum would carry him to eventual victory, I’m sure he wouldn’t have stayed in as long as he did. Once he believed he had a real shot, he just couldn’t let go. But he didn’t have momentum. He won Iowa because of natural advantages specific to Iowa and a few other states.

    Obama’s had a similar problem, but in reverse. While I do actually think he has momentum, whenever his momentum isn’t able to overcome natural advantages that Hillary has in a particular state, it’s imagined that he’s lost the momentum. But he hasn’t. It’s just that his momentum wasn’t able to overcome her original lead. It’s like a car race where one car starts at lap 250 and the other at lap 1. Even if the second car is traveling twice as fast as the first, he might not be able to catch-up.

    That’s my belief on what’s happening. She had huge leads in every state, and unfortunately for him, his extra velocity wasn’t enough to pass her in some of them. But this isn’t a shift in momentum. He wasn’t supposed to be close in Ohio or Texas to begin with. It was only his momentum that made it close.

  • “Turn out the lights” is right. Clinton can pretend like she’ll be the nominee as much as she wants, but she’s only suffering from an extreme case of denial. Watching her preen in her deluded state is about as voyeuristic as watching Britney Spears walk around with her ass on display.

    Clinton may be good for ratings, but Obama is our nominee…and there’s not a damn thing Clinton can do about it now.

  • CNN reported today that Clinton’s strengths in what is being called “yesterday’s news” will continue to play out in rural areas of Pennsylvania, N. Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky. If the media continues to actually scrutinize Obama instead of giving him a free ride, expect her to make gains in other states as well.

    Don’t read too much into what you read from Obama’s supporters in the blogosphere, if Clinton truly had no chance of winning she would have left the race. She is in this to win it and Obama’s only chance of survivial is starting to fizzle, along with his character.

  • Like Wyoming and uh, whatever, that other completely unimportant state, even count. They’re not blue states so who gives a shit, really? Plus, Wyoming is a caucus, and those are totally worthless.

  • “…if Clinton truly had no chance of winning she would have left the race…”

    And Greg is suffering from an extreme case of denial as well.

  • The nomination used to be decided by the delegates, most of whom were party insiders. Primaries and caucuses were devised to give the full breadth of the party more say — even letting Independents and cross-voting Republicans in some states — but the philosophy is still the voting and caucuses guide the delegate selection. And the insiders still get a say because, well, they’re insiders and know the candidates and their districts/wards better.

    What we have here is pretty much a tie. Here’s how it looks if Clinton wins big in PA, like she did in OH:

    The Obama argument: We have more in the popular vote, we have more delegates, we won more states, we can bring in Independents from McCain. We bring in tons of new voters and energy to the polls.

    The Clinton argument: We won most of major states (NY, CA, OH, PA, TX, etc.) and did just fine everywhere else. We pull in women from McCain and do well in the older demographics (also pulling from McCain) and we are more solid with the traditional democratic constituencies. Obama couldn’t close the deal, despite favorable coverage and a perception of momentum — and by the time we get to the convention the momentum is with us after our big win in PA. Obama’s lead in both the popular vote and delegates is statistically insignificant — the uncommitted delegates should recognize that we have the momentum and we’ve demonstrated staying power and the ability to come back hard.

    Which leaves a decision in the hands of “superdelegate” — and frankly, if it gets to the convention with the above arguments in place, I think they ought to be able to make it.

    (And yes, I think MI and FL should have re-votes so they can be counted fairly, and not have rule-changing shenanigans at the convention — that’s a losing scenario).

  • Yeah, Greg is right! North Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky are way more important than the states that Obama won, plus they are solidly blue states, proving that the Democratic base hearts Clinton! Plus Greg is right about not listening to the silly blogsphere! The mainstream media is where it’s at! Let’s listen to them and give them and Rush Limbaugh what they want: a Clinton McCain Presidency!

  • “… if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all that stuff issues, as I’ve said before I don’t know why they’d want to go there, but I guess that’s where they’ll take the race.”

    Let’s bring up exactly what she did in her career as a member of the board of WalMart when those scumballs were out screwing small companiies, wrecking communities, destroying jobs and fighting unions.

    Let’s bring up all she did as a corporate lawyer in a law firm that eventually had to close its doors for all its ethical violations and crimes.

    Let’s bring up Bill’s $31 million “gift” over the Kazakh uranium mining deal.

    Just how did they go from being broke (and millions in debt) when they left the white house, to having $35 million today?

    When is she going to release her tax returns?

    David Geffen said it well, the Clintons lie so well they can’t tell the truth from their bullshit. Let’s call them on all of it.

    Let’s remind those two scumballs that those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw bricks.

  • I hope Obama doesn’t go there. Clinton got a tie in NH with “everybody’s picking on me”. She won states on Super Tuesday largely because of name recognition and a short campaign period. Now she wallows in the mud with the help of the media and gets another Pyrrhic victory. Obama needs to defend himself more artfully, and define Clinton according to her tactics.

    The problem for Dems is that it really isn’t as simple as a choice between progressive worldview vs laissez-faire economics. You have to want the former more. If the choice comes down to sniping, corrupt snake charmers, the one who promises lower taxes and spending wins. I’ve pointed this out before, but if you compare countries on the basis of tax and spend policies and corruption, they go hand in hand. People don’t tolerate corruption when taxes are high. And your economy sinks if you spend without revenue. The result is that if you are going to accomplish good things for the country, you have to be clean.

    And Obama has to defend his record vigorously. To suggest that Clinton is even dirtier merely plays into the Republican “everybody does it” theme. And they will win that arguement every time, if only because of promises of lower taxes.

  • “The Clinton argument: We won most of major states (NY, CA, OH, PA, TX, etc.) and did just fine everywhere else.”

    Uh…you might want to check your facts here. Obama beat Clinton by 25 to 35 points in state after state. Clinton won Ohio by 10 and TX by 4 (while leading in the polls by 20 points in both states just two-weeks prior).

    Those multiple 2-to-1 victories in February (plus the huge victory in SC) were too much for Clinton to overcome with a 5 point win here and a 10 point win there.

    As others have pointed out, she’s done.

  • Which leaves a decision in the hands of “superdelegate” — and frankly, if it gets to the convention with the above arguments in place, I think they ought to be able to make it. -zmulls

    Unfortunately, though, I see the building bitterness as detrimental to the Party, and by that time I think it would be irreparable and lead to a McCain Presidency no matter what.

    McCain gets to sit back and let Clinton tear into Obama while everything bad about McCain gets swept under the rug even more than the ‘liberal media’ would normally.

  • Plus, Wyoming is a caucus, and those are totally worthless.

    Argument against caucuses: Some people can’t make it to caucuses, and they don’t reflect the broad range of the state. Take a *real* vote and not just the motivated few and give the most possible people a say.

    Argument for caucuses: Caucuses filter out fickle independents and mischievous Republicans. They also filter out too casual interest by some voters. Having the motivated few actually show up and state their case brings the nomination back to someone who reflects the core values of the party.

    I don’t know that it’s a clear-cut case of worthlessnes….

  • Greg @ 8 is talking out of his a** because his mouth knows better. Don’t know about rural areas of Pa., N.C. & Ky, but the rural areas of Indiana absolutely HATE the Clintons.

    “If Clinton truly had no chance of winning she would have left the race” is only believable if you have a 3rd grade education or think that Math is like Science & is secondary to ‘belief’.

    It is not irrational to believe that the Clintons know that she cannot get the nomination & are trying to destroy Obama so that McCrap wins & Billary can run again in 2012.

  • By April 22, Pennsylvanians should qualify for PTSD benefits.

  • I think it’s increasingly likely that Michigan and Florida will get a re-vote of some kind (caucus or primary). I also suspect HRC wins Fla., given demographics. But Mich. I’m not so sure about.

    If the revotes take place and they more or less split, then there’s not much effect on the overall delegate count, but the argument that BO can’t carry the big states (which is shaky anyway, but that’s another issue) takes a major hit. So if I’m in the BO campaign, I’d want to know what the prospects in Mich. look like, so I know whether to fight the calls for revotes, or go along.

    Anybody seen any good analysis on that?

  • I don’t know that it’s a clear-cut case of worthlessnes…. -zmulls

    That comment was meant completely tongue-in-cheek, given the Clinton campaign’s qualifiers for all the contests they lose or plan to lose.

  • Clarification to Tom @ 13:

    $10 Million debt in 2001 to $35 Million net worth is for Hillary alone – per Senate filings. Does NOT include Bill’s net worth, which is undoubtably greater. Good job if you can get it – $35 Million increase in net worth in 7 years on a Senator’s salary!

  • Thom Hartmann says he was on Fox this morning and the host asked if there were Independents who, at Rush’s urging, voted for Hillary. They got 1200 emails in less than an hour from such voters. (Indies went 50/50 in TX, iirc). food for thought.

  • That comment was meant completely tongue-in-cheek, given the Clinton campaign’s qualifiers for all the contests they lose or plan to lose.

    Noted. I’ve been looking at several overwrought blog threads over the last few weeks, and tongue-in-cheek comments seem to be losing to bitter recriminatory accusations….

  • Actually, I think Obama should decide on and announce his VP selection now, so they could run as a team — and challenge both McCain and Hillary to do the same. (Given the actuarial charts, McCain’s choice will be VERY important, and there should be a subtle way to make this point.)

    Meanwhile, unless there can be an agreement from both camps to use the time from now to Pennsylvania for demonstrating why either candidate is better than McCain, and Hillary can stop with the Tonya Harding tactics — thanks to whoever I stole that from — we should start wearing t-shirts reading
    “Don’t let Hillary 2008 become Nader 2000.”

    I have been saying that McCain can’t win, and he can’t — unless Hillary so disgusts enough people that the turnout drops, or unless too many of her supporters buy into her whining and negative attacks and stay home or *shudder* vote for McCain. I don’t think this will happen, the more people see McCain the more he will drop in the polls, but if it does, then Hillary better forget about getting support in 2012.

  • Don’t know about rural areas of Pa., N.C. & Ky, but the rural areas of Indiana absolutely HATE the Clintons.

    I can speak to rural NC and rural Kentucky as I have family in both places. The people in those areas absolutely despise the Clintons, though I’m not sure how much they’d love Obama either.

    But the issue is pointless, as there’s not really a lot of registered Dems in the rural areas of either state, except for the Heath Shuler swath of western NC. The real Democratic bases there are going to be the I-40 cities through NC, especially the Research Triangle, and Charlotte; and then Louisville and the eastern part of KY. Except for the Appalachian regions there, Obama should run better in both.

  • retr2327 @20 said, ‘I think it’s increasingly likely that Michigan and Florida will get a re-vote of some kind ‘

    Both candidates should push for an affirmation by all voters, in those states for now, that they will not vote republican in the general, regardless of who benefits. This business of people who absolutely will vote thug in the general manipulating our process has got to stop. Of course renouncing an affirmation would not bother some, but it would have some effect.

  • Creature @6 – Actually, they call me “doctor” because that’s what my name is. It’s not supposed to be any sort of title, however. I’m a CPA and would never have wasted my time getting any sort of doctorate. In my field, the only folks with doctorates are stuck teaching.

    (No offense to doctors or teachers intended.)

  • In terms of the Obama campaign going negative: I’m afraid Hillary is dragging him there, but I also think that she will regret it. Although I’ve enjoyed the higher tone set by the Obama campaign, I am also going to enjoy Hillary get the smackdown she deserves when her own tactics are turned against her & her MANY questionable connections and deals. I’ve been disgusted over the past several days to see all the headlines such as Redzco as Obama’s “major” patron … what a load of crap … yes this person contributed to and supported Obama, but I think there were a hell of a lot of other people who did this as well.
    This is going to get really ugly, but Hillary is creating it. I sincerely wish that the DNC would shut her down.

  • Oh, and as I just mentioned on another board:
    Make sure to give Obama at least $10 right now. I just gave a little more than that, and trust me, it’s the most therapeutic way to get rid of the sting of not having ended this last night. You’ll feel much better.

    http://www.barackobama.com

  • ” have been saying that McCain can’t win, and he can’t — unless Hillary so disgusts enough people that the turnout drops, or unless too many of her supporters buy into her whining and negative attacks and stay home or *shudder* vote for McCain. I don’t think this will happen, the more people see McCain the more he will drop in the polls, but if it does, then Hillary better forget about getting support in 2012.”

    I am very, very afraid that this will happen if Hillary gets the nomination. There is no way that the youth and new voters will turn out in record numbers for her. She is certainly disgusting me – at this point I would still vote for her if she is the nominee, but I heard a lot of people that would not & I’m somewhat on the fence.

  • Hillary has won the battle ground states of Florida, New York, Jersey, Ohio, Texas and California. Obama has won in podunk states like Kansas, Iowa, Alabama. However the media never said that. They kept focusing on 11 in a row, 12 in a row. The media also said Texas, Ohio were must wins, expecting Obama to win. Did not happen. Now the media is again downplaying that.You know what, let the media move this paper candidate thru because come July, the GOP is going to slice him up to nothing and in the end, the only candidate they will be able to go to is McCain.

    Calls to question, does the media really favor Obama, or Mcain? think about it.

  • The thing Clinton is doing to Obama will look and feel a lot different when she’s doing them to McCaint.

  • Obama will net more delegates in the next week with Wyoming and Mississippi than Clinton did yesterday with her big states.

  • Why are some readers here so interested in ‘where’ Hillary Clinton’s money is coming from? $35 million in the last 7 years… etc… She had some good book deals, as well as the royalties that come with it. I don’t think there is anything illegal there….

    Compare that to someone who made a ton more… Al Gore, went to well over $100 million during the same time span. Far better than he could have done being the President of an unworthy nation.

    If a nation deserves the leaders it elects…. It certainly is a sad state of affairs. There are a lot of unworthy citizen living here… Too bad. Isn’t it time to reverse course, stop nit picking on where Hillary and / or Obama’s personal money comes from and stick to the issues that matter in the way that they need to CLEAN up the Republican mess.

    SCOTUS nominations… Competent people in government agencies… Only a Democrat can assure you of those… No Republican can accomplish that.

    Did anybody hear Boehner this morning on CNN? “The republican party stands for small government, reducing debt, low taxes, and privatized health care.” WOW How original… Cognitive Dissonance if you ask me.

  • The thing Clinton is doing to Obama will look and feel a lot different when she’s doing them to McCaint. -Dale

    Hopefully, since Obama is a fellow Democrat and McCain is not. I sincerely hope that if she does end up running against McCain she does it with more integrity than she is against Obama, since her attacks against him have been pure bullshit. Ironically, I think she would, since they’re such good buddies according to Bill.

    She’ll probably just keep praising his wonderful experience all the way to a McCain Presidency.

    I don’t think there is anything illegal there… -Bruno

    Of course, if she’d release her tax records, there would be no reason to think at all, we’d simply know.

    And a net gain of $45 million for some books? That I find hard to swallow.

  • Don’f forget that the Clinton campaign botched it a little bit in Pennsylvania and is not even eligible for some delegates in that state because of a missed deadline in filing or something. I don’t know the details exactly and I’m not too familiar with the whole system, but a victory in Penn will be slight in terms of delegates.

  • Hillary has won the battle ground states of Florida, New York, Jersey, Ohio, Texas and California

    I’ll apologize if I’m wrong, but I strongly suspect that “Manny from Miami” is yet another of the endless stream of pro-Hillary spammers who keep showing up with their completely idiotic spin, but who never come back…with the same name.

    I mean, since when are NY, NJ, TX, or CA “battleground states”? I do know of one BIG battleground state where Obama whooped Hillary: Virginia. And beyond that, there are plenty of purple states that Obama won. The real mystery is why Hillary people keep thinking that it’s important who won NY or CA; as if those states are in jeopardy. Oh wait, that’s not a mystery. It’s just more desperate spin from people lacking better arguments. Or in this case, from spammers who aren’t given better arguments by their bosses.

  • Don’t underestimate Hillary Clinton. Many thought that Obama had the “door” anywhere from cracked open to wide open to the nomination before yesterday. Hillary slammed it shut in his face. It isn’t likely that either will get enough delegates to be automatic. That leaves it up to “politics”. I’m betting that conversations will be had and deals will be made and I don’t think its too far fetched to see a Clinton/Obama ticket.

  • I’m betting that conversations will be had and deals will be made and I don’t think its too far fetched to see a Clinton/Obama ticket.

    I see that as entirely far fetched. If anything, the only “deals” that will be made will be with the super delegates who they need to win. And even then, that’s only possible if Hillary can close the delegate gap between now and then. But if things go as they look like they’ll go, she’ll be too far away in delegates for the super-delegates to throw it her way without throwing the party into disarray.

    People are NOT going to be happy with having powerful people overturning the people’s choice by selecting their own candidate again. Especially if it’s done through backroom deals and underhanded pressure. My prediction is that the super-delegates are going to go with whichever candidate looks more likely to win the nomination, and that’s going to be Obama. Remember, Democratic politicos aren’t famous for wanting to take strong stands or controversial positions. As usual, they’ll go with the flow.

  • I suspect Dr. Biobrain has no brain at all. Virginia? Virginia has all of 5 electoral votes and if you recall, which you probably don’t because you are obviously a moron, Virginia is one of the few states the Senior George Bush won in his bid for reelection from Mr. Bill Clinton. Sure, real bang up job on research Dr. Testbuby Baby Biobrain. So Mr. Obama can have all the Virginia states that he wants but if he is going to go again MCCAIN(since you are so stupid you did not realize this is the guy I was actually talking about) he hasn’t got a prayer of winning.

    True I would accept Hillary as president if McCain were to lose, but not Obama. He has no experience, copies all his proposal from Hillary, and would send our country to a depression faster than you can snap you fingers. So do us all a favor Dr. Biobuthead, get up, get you disfunctional family off welfare, and stop waiting for a president who will promise to give you everything.

  • Here’s a question. Is the magic number of delegates needed still the magic number now that Fla and MI aren’t counted?

  • I got news for all of you Barack “Hussein” supporters, Hillary would be declared the winner now if they did not change the way the delegates were split. If they awarded them like they use to and like the Republicans do, she would have already had the delegate amount because she won all the large states. They will never allow Obama to be the nominee based on the fact the he did not win one large industrial state. So long “Hussein”

  • Dale I will answer your question. If you are talking about pledged delegates there are only 611 up for grabs so the answer is no, not even if Obama were to win each state 100-0. So the superdelegates will make the difference; unless of couse one of the two bows out before the convention which is very unlikely.

    Now I would assume Dr. Biobrain would know this being a CPA and all. However I visited his website, he really is not too bright and should consider changing his name to Dr. cementBrain.

  • Hillary would be declared the winner now if they did not change the way the delegates were split. -LINDA

    Well, since they seem to be playing the game by the old rules, you’d better write the Clinton campaign and tell them how the primaries work, because that’s something I would’ve expected them to know in advance.

    Of course, you’re just a GOP troll because a Democrat wouldn’t stress Obama’s middle name, would they? What’s with the quotes? Really, how ignorant can you be?

    So long LINDA. (Why do you shout your name…or does it stand for something? ‘Look, I’m not doing anything’, or ‘Linda is now dropping acid’, or ‘Listen, I need drugs, asshole!’)

  • I suspect Dr. Biobrain has no brain at all. Virginia? Virginia has all of 5 electoral votes and if you recall, which you probably don’t because you are obviously a moron, Virginia is one of the few states the Senior George Bush won in his bid for reelection from Mr. Bill Clinton.

    Wow. You really got my number, Manny. Except that you’re totally and completely wrong. Virginia, being the 12th biggest state in the country, has 13 electoral votes, not 5. Perhaps you were speaking of West Virginia; which is impressive as you got half the name right. And I guess it doesn’t take a brain to know that Virgina is trending blue, and could be a big pickup for the Dems. Perhaps you like throwing away large states, but I’d prefer to win them.

    BTW, as long as you’re saying dumb stuff like calling California, New York, New Jersey, and Texas “battleground states” and mixing up your state names, you can just save the childish insults. They’re quite redundant, I assure you.

  • Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Tuesday morning, Tom Brokaw dropped a bombshell on Terry McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

    “Somebody very close to the Obama campaign told me yesterday that they’ve got 50 [superdelegates] that they’ve identified who are ready to go public before too long,” Brokaw said.

    That was Tuesday morning. On Tuesday morning, the expectation was that Obama would inch out ahead of Clinton in Texas, making the further race pretty much pointless not only de facto but in the court of public opinion as well. Based on that, 50 superdelegates might well have considered endorsing Obama to stop further internecine battles between the two candidates. But that Texas win didn’t happen. So, the question now is “Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?” If those supers had been truly por-Obama, they’d have come out for him earlier (like Dodd had, for example). That they hadn’t done that, means they’re hedging their bets. Given yesterday’s results, they probably won’t come out now before PA results are known.

    Manny, @41
    Your argument might have had more weight, if you had managed to refrain from attacking the messenger (like a primary school kid) and concentrating on the message (like an adult).

    But, even then, you’d have been wrong about Virginia. It has changed a lot in the past 16 yrs, turning from red to purple and trending blue. Since 1992, we’ve elected two consecutive Dem Governors, gave the boot to Macaca Allen in ’06 and Mark Warner is poised to replace John Warner this year, thus closing the trifecta. Most of it is, I think, due to the change of demographics (the cities had grown, through young people relocating into the are) and to general improvement of our economy under the first of those Dem Governors I mentioned above. The same Mark Warner who’s likely to become our second blue Senator. Who, as a Governor, had made a point of luring those highly-educated young people by creating high-tech jobs. We don’t yet have NC’s Research Triangle but we’re on the way to it. And places like that tend to go for Obama, not for Clinton.

  • Another point I’d like to make on what “Manny from Miami” said above is how much the Hillary people are still living in the past. He cites Clinton’s loss to Bush Sr. in Virginia as evidence of how unlikely it is for us to win the state. Holy jesus, that was 16 years ago! Yeah, nothing’s happened since then.

    Of course, he suggested that it was one of the few that Clinton lost, despite the fact that Clinton lost many states in ’92, including Florida. I guess with their measly 27 electoral votes, we should write them off too. Sure, Bill won FL in ’96, but I doubt Manny’s encyclopedia goes that far forward.

  • Speaking for PA as far as their political instincts, remember that Goldwater did quite well there. Also, it has been said with great accuracy, I might add, that PA is Philadelphia in the east with Pittsburgh in the west and Alabama in between. Western PA has the strongest KKK representation in the northeast. And the people I have met there are somewhere to the right of the American Enterprise Institute.

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