Monday’s Mini-Report

Today’s edition of quick hits.

* New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) held a press conference this afternoon, acknowledging that he had “acted in way that violates his obligation to his family,” but he did not answer questions and did not comment on his future plans. “I apologize first and most importantly to my family. I apologize to the public, to whom I promised better,” he said, adding, “I am disappointed that I failed to live up to the standard I expected of myself.” There’s no shortage of rumors about possible resignation plans, but nothing confirmed yet. (Spitzer did vow to “report back” in “short order.”)

* A sign of the times: “As one reporter just quipped on the Clinton plane: ‘There goes another superdelegate.'”

* Bloodshed in Baghdad: “A suicide bomber killed five American soldiers on a foot patrol Monday after detonating his explosives vest in central Baghdad, the U.S. military said. It was the deadliest attack on American forces in Iraq since a Jan. 28 roadside bombing and ambush killed five soldiers in Mosul in northern Iraq…. An Iraqi police officer at the scene, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two civilians were also killed and another eight wounded in the attack which occurred outside a computer store.”

* Waxman to the rescue, again: “Because Blackwater had many fewer ’employees,’ for example, it made out with a number of contracts reserved for so-called small businesses: ‘at least 100 small business set-aside contracts. worth over $144 million, that have been awarded to Blackwater since 2000.’ Waxman wants the IRS, the Small Business Administration, and the Department of Labor to investigate. Blackwater is already the focus of its share of criminal investigations, but it may be that these, if they were to get off the ground, would do the most damage to the company’s bottom line.”

* I remember, eight years ago, when gas was about $32 a barrel and Bush complained that it was evidence of a failed Clinton energy policy: “U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to 30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling to make ends meet in an economic downturn…. The national average for self-serve regular unleaded gas was nearly $3.20 a gallon on March 7, up about 9.44 cents per gallon in the past two weeks, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey of about 7,000 gas stations. The price has risen 64 cents per gallon in the past 12 months.”

* The single best report ever on the NSA’s domestic surveillance program. Everything you ever wanted to know and more.

* The long-awaited “Phase II” report will likely be a letdown: “After an acrimonious investigation that spanned four years, the Senate Intelligence Committee is preparing to release a detailed critique of the Bush administration’s claims in the buildup to war with Iraq, congressional officials said. The long-delayed document catalogs dozens of prewar assertions by President Bush and other administration officials that proved to be wildly inaccurate about Iraq’s alleged stockpiles of banned weapons and pursuit of nuclear arms. But officials say the report reaches a mixed verdict on the key question of whether the White House misused intelligence to make the case for war.”

* Tucker Carlson’s MSNBC show was officially cancelled this afternoon. Instead of Rachel Maddow, whom I’d hoped would get her own show, the network will replace Carlson with a new program, “Race For The White House with David Gregory.” (As if MSNBC needed to devote more time to the horserace.) The other disappointing angle: Gregory was actually one of the best reporters in the White House press corps, of which he’ll no longer be a part.

* Would someone please tell Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) to quit while he’s behind?

* Unfortunately, I neglected to make fun of Michael O’Hanlon’s NYT piece yesterday on “progress” in Iraq, but Matt Yglesias, John Cole, Ilan Goldenberg, and Spencer Ackerman were on the case.

* Oops: “A British factory worker has shut down a tourism site he owned at the request of the U.S. air force after he received thousands of e-mails sent to his domain that were meant for military personnel — among them e-mails with flight plans for Air Force One, the U.S. presidential plane, as well as passwords and military procedures and tactics, according to the BBC.”

* And finally, while I’m not generally a fan of heckling, it sounds like Karl Rove’s reception at the University of Iowa was pretty lively: “At one point during the speech, Rove reportedly lashed out at some of the students, saying, ‘You got a chance to ask your questions later and make your stupid statements, let me make mine.’ Police also were forced to remove two people after they tried to perform a citizen’s arrest on Rove for what they said were his crimes while a member of the Bush Administration…. Toward the end of the speech a member of the crowd yelled, ‘Can we have our $40,000 back?’ Rove replied, ‘No, you can’t.'” (thanks to reader W. B. for the heads-up)

Anything to add? Consider this an end-of-the-day open thread.

If you asked the oil company CEO’s who were in Dick Cheney’s energy task force in 2001, they’d say Bush-Cheney energy/war policy has been a smashing success!
From $32 to near $104 per barrel, $3.20+ per gallon.

Vacuum-up Economics at its finest!

  • Turdblossom didn’t get enough time to make his stupid statements as Bush’s top advisor?

    Good on the kids who tried to arrest that SOB. Outing CIA agents used to be a crime before the criminals took over the whitehouse.

  • Unrelated to anything in today’s end of day open thread… I just added up the delegates for all of the CLOSED primaries & caucuses held to date, this should come as no surprise, Clinton is beating Obama 405 to 285 when outside interference is eliminated in this manner.

  • @ #4

    This of course does not include Michigan or Florida.. if I were a superdelegate I would take this very seriously into consideration when nominating the candidate for the DEMOCRATIC party.. outside interference from Republicans should be eliminated when they are forced to choose between the 2 candidates, period.

  • Well, since you’re posting your nifty new equation everywhere, I’ll post my retort along side it:

    BTW, I just added up the delegates for all of the CLOSED primaries & caucuses, this should come as no surprise, but Clinton is beating Obama 405 to 285 when outside interference is eliminated in this manner. -Greg

    SHOCKING!

    BTW, I just held a national Presidential election with only Democrats…Oh wait, that DOESN’T HAPPEN.

    Maybe you enjoy being a quadrennial loser. I don’t.

  • I think we can all agree that if Kristen, Client 9’s favorite, is named Monica in real life…
    then god really does exist.

  • Poor Karl Rove. He needs to find some universities where he won’t be hooted down: Pepperdine, Liberty, Patrick Henry, uh, Pepperdine.

  • The operative phrase is that David Gregory *was* one of the best reporters in the White House Press Corps, back in the day when he asked tough-minded questions that challenged the pResident and got him really riled up a lot.

    But he sold out a long time ago and is now just another tame pony in the White House stable. Or did you miss him, all smiles, shucking and jiving on-stage with Karl Rove a while back?

    He’s getting this show because he’s no longer a thorn in the side of the administration, and it’s sad to see it happen.

  • There are reports that when the news of Spitzer getting busted hit Wall Street cheers rang out. I’m sure it’s one part schadenfreude, one part the foxes getting back in charge of guarding the hen house. Bedroom sleaze opens the door for more Wall Street sleaze.

    On Rove’s speech, the story had another interesting quote:
    “At one point, a person asked Rove if he has ever shed a tear over the war in Iraq.

    ‘I shed a lot of tears and I have been inspired by many of the people who feel their son or daughter should not have to die in vain,’ he replied.”

    … So he wants more sons and daughters to die in vain because of it. Reminds me of that quote John Kerry made in ’71 about “who wants to be the last to die for a mistake?”

  • Oh well, my spaces didn’t come out, but in each case the first number is Obama, the second is Clinton. The total I get with 14 closed primaries and caucuses is Obama 352 over 329 for Clinton. By the way, NM was closed, but the allowed 17,000 provisional ballots, mostly from non-Dems, giving Clinton one more in that state.

  • Danp:

    Well, Oklahoma is OK because the Sooners are a good football team and The Kinks wrote a good song about it, and AZ is OK because John MCain hails from there and he looks good in a flight suit, and New York is cool because it’s totally the center of the universe, and New Mexico is kind of OK because the sunsets kind of remind me of that Thomas Kinkade Painter of Light guy (genius!) — and, well, the rest of those states and that District thingy don’t count for a number of reasons I can’t really go into right now — but the math totally works out, OK?

    Trust me!

  • 4. Greg said: Unrelated to anything in today’s end of day open thread… I just added up the delegates for all of the CLOSED primaries & caucuses held to date, this should come as no surprise, Clinton is beating Obama 405 to 285 when outside interference is eliminated in this manner.

    Excellent. She’s a lock to become President in the imaginary world inside your head.

  • Oil traded about $108/bbl today for awhile, and closed at $107.95. That’s 3.37 times higher since Bush took office. I think it’s obvious what the main plan of the Cheney Energy Task Force was.

  • Excellent. She’s a lock to become President in the imaginary world inside your head. -Shalimar

    LOL. It’s statements like this that make me glad I was not drinking milk while reading.

  • Shalimar said:
    Excellent. She’s a lock to become President in the imaginary world inside your head.

    LOL The President of Greg.

  • A sign of the times: “As one reporter just quipped on the Clinton plane: ‘There goes another superdelegate.’”

    One of your commenters thought of it first.

    11.
    On March 10th, 2008 at 3:15 pm, minimus said:
    If he quits, is that one less “super delegate vote” for Hillary?

  • After having been semi-comatose for a while (posting weekly), the Votemaster at:
    http://www.electoral-vote.com/
    is now posting daily again. And every day there’s something interesting/funny to read. Today’s main posting (after a couple of shorties about Foster’s win and the girl from the 3AM ad) is a discussion — with charts — about the correlation between the prior experience and greatness of presidents. Fun.

    Mind you, none of the past presidents had the overwhelming 35yrs of experience (I think 30 tops the list), so I don’t know how valid this is for our purposes…

  • When all is said and done Obama will likely have won something like 30 of 50 states, have about 500,000 more votes, and a pledged delegate lead of 100 -150 (delending on whether Michigan and Florida have a do-over). So come on, people, isn’t it obvious that Clinton has won this thing. Sheesh.

  • A British factory worker has shut down a tourism site he owned at the request of the U.S. air force after he received thousands of e-mails sent to his domain that were meant for military personnel — among them e-mails with flight plans for Air Force One, the U.S. presidential plane, as well as passwords and military procedures and tactics, according to the BBC.”

    The Hair Farce strikes again. Remembver, these are the guys who operate multi-billion dollar pieces of high technology.

  • People are surprised, after posts like these in this thread, that I lavel Greg a “loser”???

    BTW – kudos to all you Greg Eviscerators. Job well done and all.

  • My original source was less accurate I suppose (wikipedia) but at least they didn’t leave out Massachussetts which was a semi-closed primary.

    With Massachussetts she only won 411-398, again this total is without Florida, which will add quite a bit more pledged delegates plus several supers after the re-vote.

    Dale, doubtful, shalimar, your personal attacks are childish and aren’t appreciated, but they are what I have come to expect from many Obama supporters.

  • libra:

    Mind you, none of the past presidents had the overwhelming 35yrs of experience (I think 30 tops the list), so I don’t know how valid this is for our purposes…

    5 stars and a free back rub for most damning sentence of the week.

  • Ok, I forgot to remove AK, even though it had more than 75% democrats it was still not a closed primary and I have to remove it from this calculation, and therefore he barely edges out Clinton 390 – 384, but that is a huge difference from the lead he has been enjoying thanks to Republicans across the country, and again there’s Florida which doesn’t count, but should have pushed her way above him in this tally.

  • @28:

    Dale, doubtful, shalimar, your personal attacks are childish and aren’t appreciated, but they are what I have come to expect from many Obama supporters.

    Dammit, man, you forgot me.

    Just ’cause I didn’t specifically name you doesn’t mean I didn’t launch a childish (yet well-founded and impeccably reasoned) anti-Clinton post.

    Sheesh.

  • People are surprised, after posts like these in this thread, that I lavel Greg a “loser”??? – Tom Cleaver

    Fine, you think I’m a loser, just wait until Obama loses, which he will one way or another, versus HRC now or vs McSame in the fall. He can’t win without Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. These swing states will end up swinging to McCain if he is not careful, and if the superdelegates are smart, they will take this into consideration.

  • Greg, what kind of tortured logic do you have that Obama can’t win those states?

    Please do tell.

  • Theres a problem with most Baracks supporters. They think all Hillary voters will vote for him. News flash if OH is am example they won’t.

  • FL & OH went big for Clinton, and PA should do the same.

    I’ll start with Florida.. you see, the problem with us Floridians is that we have too many damn republicans living here, so do those other big swing states, which is why they are called swing states.. are you following me so far?

    A lot of the independants around here are more conservative & moderate, but more importantly NOT very liberal, and with most of our population being OLD people, they tend not to fall for the glitter and glam rock star style mumbo jumbo, and give a damn about things like national security and social security and could care less about speeches.

    In addition to all of this, OH & PA also don’t have a lot of the people who make up Obama’s core constituancy, mainly the blacks and people making over 80k/yr, and the economy is affecting these states probably more than most, so YES they want somebody with experience to bring change.

  • just guessing

    you think white southerners will vote for Barack?

    Not talking about primaries in general?

    If you believe that and it happens I’m moving to Cuba

  • After the Media Thrill of Spitzer’s adventures, I hope we get a better idea how all of this came about. The one thing that is no surprise is that politicians can be stupid just like regular folks. At most, it’s usually a ‘fine’ for such nonsense and the ebarassment he’s now undergoing. But Spitzer has a dearth of Wall Street enemies that are probably just reveling in this BS. What’s there that causes the Feds to get involved? How about David Vitter? i didn’t see the Feds getting too worked up about that. I’d love to see Spitzer take them on and get all this out front.

  • I’ll start with Florida.. you see, the problem with us Floridians is that we have too many damn republicans living here, so do those other big swing states, which is why they are called swing states.. are you following me so far?

    A lot of the independants around here are more conservative & moderate, but more importantly NOT very liberal

    Pssst.

    Those people tend to vote for Obama — NOT Hillary.

  • “A suicide bomber killed five American soldiers on a foot patrol Monday after detonating his explosives vest in central Baghdad, the U.S. military said.”

    Draft the chickenhawks to replace these men and women. They need to come home.

    “But officials say the report reaches a mixed verdict on the key question of whether the White House misused intelligence to make the case for war.”

    It won’t show that the White House deliberately trying to manipulate intelligence in Iraq. It’s show that they were too stupid and lazy to realize the insanity of invading a country based on the wild ass guessing that was “pre-war intelligence”.

    “Would someone please tell Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) to quit while he’s behind?”

    For those who reside in my wife’s homestate, I beg of you: Please, pleease, stop trying to pawn off this POS and his district (within which resides my mother-in-law) to Nebraska.

    I know this state is more red than Iowa, and it’s bad enough that all three of Nebraska’s (R)epresentatives are circus clowns in the back pocket of the Club For Growth.

    But I don’t need this moronic ass-munch to add to the embarrassment I already have to endure.

    And props to the students at my wife’s alma mater. Way to go, Hawkeyes.

  • “The Hair Farce strikes again. Remember, these are the guys who operate multi-billion dollar pieces of high technology.” — Tom Cleaver

    Yeah, like armed Predator drones. Assuming we ever get out of the ME and they bring those things home… the mind boggles. (Time to up-armor that tin-foil hat?)

  • Some points:

    1-It’s worth noting that nomination contests are run by the Democratic parties in each state, and as such, a primary or caucus is only “open” if DEMOCRATS IN THAT STATE WANT IT TO BE OPEN. As such, the illogic of excluding those vote totals b/c they include non-Democrats is obvious. This isn’t some situation Democrats accidentally fell into; they Democratic leadership in those states think it would be a goo idea to let Indies and/or GOPers in on the decision-making

    2-Contrary to popular belief in Cilnton land, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are not on the only “swing” states in the US. Of course, that all depends on the candidate, but Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia have all been targeted as potential swing states for quite awhile now. And guess what? Obama won all those, and runs stronger than Clinton GE match-up polling in them, too. You know what else? Washington and Oregon have flirted with the GOP in the Presidential multiple times in the recent past, and guess who’s stronger there? Not to mention there’s some evidence that Obama puts Nebraska (!) and Kansas(!!) into play. Which all seems part and parcel of what should be quite obvious right now: Obama is much much stronger in the prairie states, the mountwest, and the pacific northwest, as well as the south (in the primaries). Clinton, conversely, has a stronghold mainly in the rustbelt, the southwest, and the mid-atlantic regions.

    Here’s the thing, though: not all of that seems to translate to the general. Indeed, Obama’s midwest/pacific northwest strength does seem to translate, but he also seems to actually be stronger than Clinton in the southwest. Clinton, conversely, seems to hold her advantage in the rustbelt in the GE and is actually stronger than Obama in the South, but…her NE/mid-atlantic advantage goes bye-bye.

    In the end, Clinton’s electoral map looks like John Kerry’s, only a little-more pro-Dem. Obama’s map is something new (as he’s promised).

    Here’s some analysis, based on GE matchup polls in all 50 states (with all the caveats about MOE, polls this far out, etc…it’s still all we have to go on, and actually jives quite well w/ the trends we’re seeing in the primaries if you really get your hands into it)

    Chris Bowers notes that Barack Obama clearly has both a larger base and more potential swing states. To get to 270, Obama simply needs to defend New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, while picking up Ohio, Florida, or two more medium-sized states like Iowa and Virginia. Hillary Clinton has to play defense in the same places, but she also has to spend time and energy defending the Northwest and the Upper Midwest in a way that Barack Obama does not. Her only real pickup opportunities are Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, and Missouri. Obama has Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Texas. Okay, even I don’t believe he has a shot at all of those states, but he has a much better chance there than Clinton does in Mississippi or Kentucky or Oklahoma.

    Here’s the full passage and the maps, which present visually what I described above: Obama’s different map.

  • you think white southerners will vote for Barack? — Comeback Bill (erstwhile “Jim”), @ 39

    Short answer: yes; most of them will.

    Florida isn’t be-all and end-all of Southern states, despite the fact that you (and your personal bigotries) reside there. I’m in south-western Virginia; as redneck an area as you might want. But there are a lot of Dems (of the yellow-dog type) here. As well as disenchanted Repubs. Not to mention the “nobody tells me what to think and do” independents.

    The middle category (disenchanted Repubs) are anyone’s guess for general; they could go either way. The independents are almost entirely for Obama. Not just that they voted for him in the primaries but that they put pro-Obama bumperstickers on their rusted, gun-rack-equipped, pick-up trucks. And people like my husband, who is pro-Clinton, will, in the general, vote for whoever’s the Dem nominee, even if it’s the proverbial yellow dog.

    So, even if you (and Greg, also in Fla) stay home and pout when Obama is the nominee in November, we will come out and vote for him. Some of us with enthusiasm, some of us out of duty. But do not doubt: we *will* go and touch our voting screens for him, with our cracker-white fingers.

  • fillphil at 42 asks, “What’s there that causes the Feds to get involved?” in the Sptizer business.

    TPM has the best explanation I’ve seen, apparently quoting the NYT:

    [IRS] investigators conducting a routine examination of suspicious financial transactions reported to them by banks found several unusual movements of cash involving the governor of New York, several officials said. …

    The money ended up in the bank accounts of what appeared to be shell companies, corporations that essentially had no real business.

    The transactions, officials said, suggested possible financial crimes — maybe bribery, political corruption, or something inappropriate involving campaign finance. Prostitution, they said, was the furthest thing from the minds of the investigators. …

  • I’m one of those “nobody tells me what to think or do” (to use libra’s well said words) independents, though i’m not from the South; furthermore, the geographical region that i reside in is full of nobody tells me what to think or do types. I can’t say that people like me will vote for Obama in the general. But i can tell you what the chances that “nobody tells me what to think or do” types will vote for Clinton are: zip, zero, zilch.

    See it comes from a conflict between our quirky personalities and the candidates “you’ll do what i tell you, because it’s what’s best for you” personality. Example #1: she says that she’ll make people buy the health insurance plan that she has devised and decided is best…how many “nobody tells me what to think or do” types are going to go for that?

    Both could have a severely difficult time in the general. It’s not that Obama is head and shoulders better (though i personally think that he is); it’s that 47% of the country already dislikes her, and the left-leaners aren’t being enamored with her current style of campaigning.

    But i suppose that the hard core Clinton supporters aren’t listening, because they are the “please someone tell me what to think and do” types…and someone has already told them what to think and do.

  • 28.Greg said: Dale, doubtful, shalimar, your personal attacks are childish and aren’t appreciated, but they are what I have come to expect from many Obama supporters.

    I was merely pointing out that all this searching you do for subsets of numbers that make your candidate appear to be ahead don’t have any relation to the actual race in the real world. There are no bonus delegates for winning the closed primary and caucus vote, even if your totals are correct. And I won’t even try to explain why combining primary and caucus votes is bad methodology because I’m sure you already understand and just don’t care.

  • Loved Librar’s post #24. He neglected to mention that this same site points out that if Democrats had winner take all distribution of electors in states won, Clinton would be ahead of Obama by at least 100 electors. Selective data mining much?

  • Point of above postings. All of this is arbitrary, The fairest way to elect party representatives for the general election is to hold a single primary day vote, in which one man-one vote balloting, not arm-twisting, determines each party’s nominee. Only party members are allowed to vote in the primary for party. If “independents” want to vote at this level, scare up some “Independent” candidates. Cross-over dirty tricks would be eliminated. General election would be a choice between those who came out best in the primary voting and of course voting would not be limited to party designation.

  • “A British factory worker has shut down a tourism site he owned at the request of the U.S. air force after he received thousands of e-mails sent to his domain that were meant for military personnel — among them e-mails with flight plans for Air Force One, the U.S. presidential plane, as well as passwords and military procedures and tactics, according to the BBC.”

    Could he also check if maybe 3 million email messages somehow showed up?

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