Iowa Dems gather, give Obama another delegate boost

After the Iowa caucuses in early January, we saw tallied results that showed Barack Obama picking up 16 delegates. That number, though, was actually a projection of expected results when the Iowa Democratic Party met for its state convention.

As it turns out, Obama ended up doing even better.

Democrat Barack Obama expanded his fragile lead in delegates over rival Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday, picking up nine delegates as Iowa activists took the next step in picking delegates to the national convention.

More than half the 14 delegates allocated to John Edwards on the basis of caucus night projections switched Saturday to Obama.

Iowa Democratic Party officials said that with all of the delegates picked, Obama claimed 52 percent of the delegates elected at county conventions on Saturday, compared with 32 percent for Clinton. Some of the delegates picked at Saturday’s conventions were sticking with Edwards, even though he’s dropped from the race since Iowa held its caucuses in January.

Democratic Party projections said the results mean Obama increased by nine the number of delegates he collects from the state, getting a total of 25 compared with 14 for Clinton and six for Edwards.

Now, it’s worth noting that there appears to be some disagreement about just how many new delegates Obama picked up last night. The AP says it’s nine; NBC says it’s five; and I’ve seen some reports indicating that it’s seven.

Regardless, whatever the number, it helps Obama pad his already sizable lead among pledged delegates, and offers a round of helpful news. As Ben Smith noted, “It’s a welcome — and meaningful — gain for Obama on a tough weekend, and a result both of his long, hard work in Iowa and of a situation in which Clinton’s attacks seem to be turning off party activists.”

Two other side notes to consider. First, Iowa isn’t unique in this process. Other states’ caucuses work in the same way — electing people to go to state conventions — and it’s a reminder that some of the other delegate totals may fluctuate a little.

Second, the AP article on this included one phrase that stood out.

Twelve automatic delegates bring the state’s total to 57. Obama has been endorsed by four of those and Clinton three, with the remainder uncommitted. (emphasis added)

This is the first time I’ve seen a neutral news report use the “automatic delegate” phrase, instead of the universally accepted “superdelegate.”

The Clinton campaign began recommending “automatic delegates” about a month ago, believing the subtle shift would help soften the blow if party insiders ended up overriding the pledged delegates. The push didn’t seem to go anywhere, the campaign was gently mocked for trying to change the wording in the middle of the campaign, and the talk seemed to disappear.

And yet, the AP, without explanation, dropped “superdelegate” (which everyone now recognizes and understands) in favor of “automatic delegate” (which no one recognizes or understands). It’s a little jarring.

To be sure, there are far more offensive media errors playing out during this campaign, but as Josh Marshall noted, “I think it’s a good journalistic principle not to switch terminology in the midst of an election campaign or public policy debate at the bidding of one party or another, unless someone makes an extremely good case that the existing word choices are patently misleading. And doing it at the behest of one party to the dispute is almost always bad practice. Otherwise the journalists whose job it is to sift through the spin become its messengers, wittingly or not.”

I still think it’s a pathetic commentary on our “system” that our choices have been reduced to two images with the depth of a TeeVee screen.

To know Edwards, you have to read Edwards, adopt his working class perspective, learn his criticisms and proposals for improving America. There is some there there. He had constructive, new programs to offer, more to develop had he been elected.

The vast majority of Americans’ knowledge of Clinton and Obama is restricted to their image on TeeVee, their “ascribed traits”: female, black. What programs they do spout are derivative and weakened forms of Edwards’.

Great country.

  • As Ben Smith noted, “It’s a welcome — and meaningful — gain for Obama on a tough weekend, and a result both of his long, hard work in Iowa and of a situation in which Clinton’s attacks seem to be turning off party activists.”

    That’s an interesting point.

    The Clinton backers have been placing their hopes for her claiming the nomination on a longshot belief that the delegates might change their mind at the convention. But if this is any indication, the movement of such delegates might be in the other direction — with Clinton ones who are turned off by the recent tone of her campaign moving to Obama, rather than the other way.

  • What, exactly, is “fragile” about his delegate lead?

    Ed- I agree Edwards was a great candidate. I voted (early) for him in The Illinois primary, before he dropped out (damn it). I never felt the press treated him very fairly, I had hoped he would stay in the race long enough to rack up enough delegates to throw some weight around at the convention. Can you imagine how different the dialogue would be now if Edwards was sitting around with 200 – 300 pledged delegates? I do think Obama is the better of our remaining altenatives, and I base that on what I’ve read and seen about him, his history, his record, and especially his recent behavior in the campaign (contrasted with Clinton).

    Pat

  • Huh, the phrase that jumped out to me was right at the top:

    Democrat Barack Obama expanded his fragile lead in delegates over rival Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday…

    Fragile lead, huh? The one that looks to be well nigh insurmountable to anyone who runs the percentages? That is a much bigger example of Team Hillary getting to set the terms of debate going forward. It is imperative for her that everyone see his lead as tenuous even though he has already recovered the small bite she took out of his lead on March 4th, leaving him with a lead that has growing pretty steadily for about a month now. The lead which looked insurmountable before March 4th is now being reported as fragile even though it is actually bigger than it was and there is less time for her to make up ground.

    I fell like I am watching a basketball game where Team Clinton is down by 12 with 4 minutes to go and looking finished, makes a four point run, sees the other team make a seven point run and finds themselves down by 15 with 2 minutes to go, at which point the announcers start talking about how Team Obama had better hold onto their once dominant, now tenuous lead.

  • Talk to some of the Hillary boosters around here and they’ll call Obama’s lead “fragile” in a hurry. They almost convinced me that Obama’s delegates may defect and right quick, thanks to the windows of discretion in the nominating process. Turns out that it’s gone in his favor, actually.

    Another Hillary talking point. Gone.

  • Imagine if AP started referring to the “Democrat Party”. This is at the same level of malign indifference.

  • Obama has a slim lead, but not a fragile one given the proportionality of the contests. Clinton’s not going take the lead and win except by winning over enough “super” delegates now.

  • Speaking of Edwards, where is he? He could end this nightmare if he chooses to, and the longer it goes on the more culpable he is, imo.

  • Any “lead” in any event can be deemed “fragile” when that lead can be easily surmounted. Everyone should remember that Pennsylvania alone has the potential to erase a large chunk of Obama’s delegate lead in one fell swoop. Do I think it will happen? Nope—but the potential exists until the moment when it ceases to exist—and not a moment before.

    Personally, I’d rather see this thing be allowed to play itself out. “Scary-thing” scenariae with the Party imploding under the brunt of the back-and-forth bashing amounts to fearmongery—and Dem fearmongery is no less obnoxious than Bu$hylvanian fearmongery.

    But at the same time, this rabid Obama supporter is felling a little better with the news that “the presumptive Dem nominee” (my opinion legitimizes this) is a few notches closer to ending this thing, and a few notches closer to driving “Herr McCain” into the sea….

  • Steve, it is possible for a 15 point lead to be turned in 2 minutes. It is however, extremely unlikely, because one team would basically have to score a ridiculously high percentage of the points going forward. This makes such a lead losable, but it does not make it fragile. There is a difference.

  • Fragile lead? Who won Texas? Obama!! He also picked up two more delegates this week in California. His lead is increasing and now he is only 400 delegates from the nomination? He is closing in on Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania and will pull out wins in Indiana and North Carolina probably bringing him within less than 200 delegates of the nomination. By then the end will be obvious.

  • Superdelegates is a lousy word. It connotes superiority in some way. And if they overturn this election then it is accurate. There’s not much automatic about them though. And that’s the rub.

  • I’ve been reading The System by Haynes Johnson & David Broder (the later perhaps not getting much respect round these parts). So far (403 pages in), it feels fairly evenhanded: more an examination of the health care battle than an expose on the Clintons. I’ll reproduce a few salient passages concerning the way that the Clintons operate.

    From the diary of a Clinton staffer (who remains nameless):

    I wonder how much Mr. and Mrs. think about the staff, about all the long hours, about all the people who are ready to be bruised, even trampled, in the name of the cause. Bot of them can be faulted. He because of his conflict aversion, which leads to hands-off for personnel and hands-on for policy; it’s easier to knock an idea or a plan than a person. She because of her drive and capriciousness. It sounds sexist but it’s also very true. Every decision is changed at least twice and she bounces up and down before setting her answer in concrete. An unerring conviction that she is right. I can’t imagine that they would be where they are today without these traits, but the impact on the staff cannot be underestimated.

    I would add that the impact on the voters and supporters (or detractors) shouldn’t be underestimated either.

    James McDermott:

    Everybody ought to go out and see the move Gallipoli, because we are like the colonials in Gallipoli. The British generals have sent the Australians and the New Zealanders and the Irish and all the rest out there to get themselves chopped up. And they’ve [the Clintons] pulled the rug out from under us on other controversial issues. So you’ve got wounded, bruised troops who are not so sure they trust their officers. They’ve got to look at where their troops are before they run us out into the kind of fire this is going to be.

    And finally, Lawrence O’Donnell (aide to Sen Moynihan, D-NY):

    Nobody working for Hillary Clinton, as far as I can tell, gets politics one whit better than Ira Magaziner does. They don’t get politics. That’s Whitewater, that’s everything. They have a War Room for everything. They don’t understand it’s not a fucking War room. War room is: I win. War ends when a person surrenders. Nobody here surrenders ever. You don’t fucking win. And you do not have an election against us where there’s a vote cast where we have to leave. We are here forever, and we don’t fucking surrender.

    Keep in mind that the above quotes all come from Democrats. They all come from people who knew/know the Clintons personally and worked for/with the Clintons. There is no doubt that the Gingrich Republicans thwarted much of what the Clintons attempted; however, it certainly seems that the Clintons made a bad habit of shooting themselves in the foot…and shooting their allies in the back. Perhaps all this has changed, but i’m not so sure.

  • Wow, after all the Rezko, Pastor Wright, 3am decisions and other mega-disasters that seemingly befell the Obama campaign, he still managed to pick up more delegates. Could it be that all the flames wars on the blogosphere are all smoke and fury on the web but not out there in the real world? Maybe a little reality would make us all calm down and realize that neither Hillary nor Obama are as bad as comments sections would make them out to be.

    Congratulations CB for the all-time record for comments on the “A Candidate and His Pastor” post. I don’t think I’ve ever seen 361 comments on one post here before.

  • Why are Edwards delegates going for Obama when he is furthest away from Edwards’s messages and programs? This clearly isn’t about issues.

    I notice on Huffington Post that now that Obama is feeling a little threatened he is going negative on Clinton’s “ethics.” Apparently, he is going to drag out and recycle all the Republican memes about investigations, etc. What will that say about Obama’s ethics. Will he show us all that he sticks to the high road as long as its convenient because he’s leading, then gets as dirty as the next guy when the chips are down?

    Or is it because he is having trouble getting out from under the Rezko accusations? Why isn’t anyone accusing Obama of ruining our chances in Nov by topedoing the other candidate who may win the nomination, doing the Republicans dirty work for them? Is this tit for tat, or is it an attempt to get Clinton to back off now that he is clearly vulnerable, by threatening her with all the dirt that hasn’t stuck before? Classy guy!

  • This clearly isn’t about issues

    You’re a fine one to talk. It’s not about issues for you, Mary. You’ve said it’s Clinton or no one for you.

    The Edwards delegates — like me, an Edwards supporter originally — have decided there’s a better shot at getting a progressive agenda enacted with Obama than Hillary at the helm.

    You can criticize them all you want, but at least they’re sticking with the Democratic Party and not threatening to take their ball and go home if it’s Obama who’s our nominee.

    Who’s closer to the progressive agenda, Mary — Obama or McCain?

  • Why are Edwards delegates going for Obama when he is furthest away from Edwards’s messages and programs? -Mary

    Perhaps they are disgusted by Hillary’s campaign tactics.

  • Oh Mary, you don’t think that the Republicans have more than enough ammunition to riddle the Clintons with?

    The republicans would have had a hard time attacking Obama without coming off as serious racists, but now they can just point to the words of the Clinton campaign. It’s great: they’ll get the effect without getting their hands dirty.

    Obama’s been pretty nice so far; there are skeletons in them there closets that he hasn’t tugged on. He certainly hasn’t made any mention of the FALN terrorist pardons at the end of the Clinton administration. You don’t really think that the Republicans will let the Clintons slide on pardoning actual, violent terrorists…do you? Maybe you do.

  • I said I would vote for Nader, not McCain. Who is closer to the progressive agenda, Nader or Obama? I’ll give you a clue — it isn’t Obama.

    My point is (1) that people are holding Clinton to a different standard than Obama when it comes to campaign tactics; and (2) that Obama is being a hypocrite about taking the high road only when he is ahead, not when it really matters.

    You can call Clinton a lot of things, but hypocrite isn’t one of them because she doesn’t pretend to be something other than a politician trying to get things done. I want things done. I don’t think Obama is committed to getting the things I want done, and I don’t think he has the skills to accomplish what he says he wants to do (which I by no means support, when it comes to issues like health care and social security and education — merit pay for teachers? he is so wrong on that one!).

  • I said I would vote for Nader, not McCain. Who is closer to the progressive agenda, Nader or Obama? I’ll give you a clue — it isn’t Obama.

    I never said you’d vote for McCain. But a vote for anyone but the Democratic nominee is essentially a vote for McCain. Unless you were in a coma for the 2000 election, you’d remember that.

  • If Nader somehow won the presidential election, he’d be a party of one elected official. His program, regrettably, would be dead on arrival. So Obama is clearly much closer to being able to realize some progress.

    I don’t hear Obama saying a lot about taking the high road – I see him doing that, which I like. However, he’s not running for sainthood, so if he wants to descend to her level for a while in order to win, that’s also fine by me. Also, there’s a difference between going negative by making crap up in order to falsely attack someone’s strengths, and simply publicizing someone’s record. Let’s see what attacks he makes and then evaluate them.

    Obama seems to me to have very impressive political skills. Hillary does too, but her modus operandi of trying to win by 50% + 1 does not seem like a recipe for getting anything accomplished other than prolonging the divisiveness and attrition of the last decade. I’d rather go with Obama’s attempt to create a new, working, majority coalition.

  • Dale: “Superdelegates is a lousy word. It connotes superiority in some way. And if they overturn this election then it is accurate. There’s not much automatic about them though. And that’s the rub.”

    Whatever happened to the time-honored experession ex officio? Is our knowledge of language, law and Latin so lame? Or, like the corporate advertisers who call the shots for us via TeeVee, must we be always looking for fresh euphemisms simply because words themselves have no meaning any more?

    These “special people” (elected officials and party bigwigs) are ex-officio delegates to the Convention. We should call them that.

  • Thanks Lex for your efforts at 14.
    Very interesting indeed.

    Couple that with this Robert Creamer piece–Helping to Elect Other Democrats Has Never Been a Clinton Strong Suit— to seal the deal regarding the foot shooting. Lot of good historical context in that op-ed.

    Juiciest quote:

    When Bill Clinton entered office in 1992, Democrats held a one-hundred-vote majority in the House of Representatives, 267 to 167. After his first two years, Democrats lost control of the House for the first time since 1954, and did not regain a majority until 2006 — long after he’d left office.

  • Speaking of Edwards, where is he? He could end this nightmare if he chooses to, and the longer it goes on the more culpable he is, imo.

    An Edwards endorsement now wouldn’t matter. He’s waited too long, and his influence on this contest would be negligible. He didn’t have the courage to take a stand and endorse after his withdrawal. I think he’s waiting to see who gets the nom so he’ll know who to suck up to in exchange for a cabinet post.

    He never really had a chance. He bore the taint of a loser as a result of ’04. Unfortunately in his case, Americans hate losers.

  • ***Is our knowledge of language, law and Latin so lame?***

    Ed, I’ve a neighbor—a Hillistine, by the way—who thinks “e pluribus unum” means “in God we trust.”

    And Mary, if you want to go toe-to-toe on negatives, maybe you could remind me—who coined the issue of “conservative frames,” Mary? Who boasted about “35 years of experience” that people all over the world are now calling into question, Mary? Who claimed to be “ready on Day One” when she can’t even take the heat from a campaign primary, Mary? Who played the “kitchen sink strategy,” Mary? Who went full-blown negative and then complained about negativity when it blew up in her face, Mary?

    Clinton went negative with one purpose—and one purpose only—in mind: to scare off the Obama support and rally the supers to her cause. What she got, instead of a few cowardly kittens tucking their tails and scampering home to be good Clintonistas, was a very large, very angry, and very vocal counterassault.

    She woke the giant, Mary—and the giant doesn’t like her very much. She fomented an insult campaign against the giant, and the giant has a good memory. If YOU want a clean campaign, then YOU should start by making demands upon YOUR candidate. Otherwise, the old adage about “not throwing stones when you live in a glass house” applies perfectly here.

  • 16. Mary said: Why are Edwards delegates going for Obama when he is furthest away from Edwards’s messages and programs? This clearly isn’t about issues.

    So you say. What I see is that Clinton hired Mark Penn as her chief strategist and that asshole has intentionally positioned himself as the poster boy for anti-progressives in the Democratic party. I was leaning towards Edwards before he dropped out. Obama isn’t the perfect progressive candidate (none of them were frankly including Edwards, lest we forget the centrist campaign he ran in 2004) but I see him as a hell of a lot closer than Hillary will ever try to be once in office (or Bill was during his last 6 years for that matter).

  • Mary, your first post here was so full of crap that I felt compelled to dismantle it, but didn’t really feel like wasting my time. A few others beat me to it in some respects, though there is still more BS in there that hasn’t been countered, but I’m going to take the advice of socratic_me anyhow and just let it go. You’re beyond hope.

  • Would you people wake up, Obama is completely unelectable now. Who gives a flying fuck what delegates he won in Iowa, the remaining states will go heavily for Clinton, and Superdeleates will nominate Clinton.

    Thank goodness we found out the truth of his RACIST CHURCH which he REFUSES TO LEAVE before it was too late.

    His wife shows how she truly felt during a candid moment, then he refuses to reject hte support of the RACIST Louis Farrakhan, and now THIS!

    Please stop hating HRC or else Democracts will lose in November, and then we all lose.

  • he refuses to reject hte support of the RACIST Louis Farrakhan

    Are you kidding me, Greg? Are you the only person on the planmet who missed the many rejections and denunciations he’s made of Farrakhan?

    February 26, 2008, 10:27 pm
    Obama Denounces Farrakhan Endorsement

    Susan Davis reports on the Democratic presidential debate.

    Sen. Barack Obama denounced the recent support for his candidacy expressed Sunday by controversial minister and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan.

    “I have been very clear in my denunciation” of Farrakhan’s history of anti-Semitic remarks, Obama said at the Democratic debate in Cleveland, “I did not solicit his support.” Obama said he “can not censor” individual endorsements but said there is no affiliation with his campaign and Farrakhan. “I can’t say to somebody that he can’t say that he thinks I’m a good guy,” Obama said, citing his support among Jewish Americans and stating that he would make it a priority to soothe historically tense ties between the African-American and Jewish communities in the nation. “I have some of the strongest support from the Jewish community in my hometown of Chicago and in this campaign,” he said, describing himself as a “stalwart” on supporting Israel.

    Sen. Hillary Clinton suggested Obama’s comments weren’t good enough, citing her own record of rejecting controversial support in her 2000 Senate bid. “There’s a difference between denouncing and rejecting,” she countered, “And I made it very clear that I did not want their support, I rejected it,” she said, “I would not be associated with people” that make such comments.

    Obama quickly responded. “I’m happy to concede the point and I would reject and denounce,” he said. “Good, good,” replied Clinton.

    We all saw this on national television. It’s good enough for Hillary Clinton even, why isn’t it enough for you?

    Is there some prize for the Most Clueless Clinton Supporter? Some reason you’re trying to wrest it away from Mary?

    We should add Greg to the Troll Ignore List.

  • 32. Greg said: Would you people wake up, Obama is completely unelectable now. Who gives a flying fuck what delegates he won in Iowa, the remaining states will go heavily for Clinton, and Superdeleates will nominate Clinton.
    Thank goodness we found out the truth of his RACIST CHURCH which he REFUSES TO LEAVE before it was too late.
    His wife shows how she truly felt during a candid moment, then he refuses to reject hte support of the RACIST Louis Farrakhan, and now THIS!
    Please stop hating HRC or else Democracts will lose in November, and then we all lose.

    Shorter Greg: Why won’t the rest of you admit that the uppity nig*** is a racist trying to keep the white man down?

  • (After reading through much of the 300+ comments on Saturday’s “big” flame war here … plus a few comments on this thread:

    Methinks the Republicans are afraid of Obama.

    I’m just sayin’ ….

  • Sorry, Greg, i turned my cheek for 8 years…i’m not turning it any more, or ever again. Those two should have quit while they were ahead. And if the Clintons are representative of the Democratic Party, then you can keep that too.

    I would have preferred a candidate other than Obama. Or i would prefer that Obama stick to the message that if this country is going to be changed it will have to be changed from the bottom up. I wish that he was pounding the stump, telling people to run for their city council and their school board. It’s unfortunate that he’s gotten sucked into the slimy vortex that is the Clintons, but there’s nothing i can do about it. And if Obama is now unelectable, much of it stems from what a member of his own party has done to him. Classy, Greg, real classy.

    But this campaign has proved everything i ever hated about the Clintons true…and nobody is going to guilt trip me into voting for a wolf in sheep’s clothing. And no, i won’t stay home, i’ll vote everything down ticket…and write in Mark Friggin Twain if i have to.

    It will be fun, if Clinton is the nominee, to see how well she responds to the kitchen sink; i’m sure that you’ll be here telling us why it’s our duty to defend her.

  • He did not reject his support at first, he actually said he “denounced his remarks”, this is NOT the same thing, and when pressed he decided to make it into a joke.

    The people that frequent this site because of their boy Obama are in for a rude awakening, there is no way he is going to get the nomination.

  • WHAT MEDIA IS NOT REPORTING: RE: TRINITY CHURCH

    Rev. Thomas (Pastor of Mainly White Congreation of UCC)denounces e-mail smear campaign against UCC’s largest congregation – Written by J. Bennett Guess, Jan. 11, 2008

    Obama, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for president, has been a member of Trinity UCC for 20 years.” “Trinity UCC is rooted in and proud of its Afrocentric heritage,” Thomas said. “This is no different than the hundreds of UCC churches from the German Evangelical and Reformed stream that continue to own and celebrate their German heritage, insisting on annual sausage and sauerkraut dinners and singing Stille Nacht on Christmas Eve. .” While Trinity UCC is predominately African American, it does include and welcome non-Black members. The Rev. Jane Fisler-Hoffman, Illinois Conference Minister, who is white, has been a member of the congregation for years.

    “Trinity is a destination church for many members of the UCC, a multi-racial, multi-cultural denomination that is largely Caucasian,” Thomas pointed out. “When in Chicago, many UCC members flock to Trinity to share in and learn from its vibrant ministries, dynamic worship and justice-minded membership. Contrary to the claims made in these hateful emails, UCC members know Trinity to be one of the most welcoming, hospitable and generous congregations in our denomination.” […]

    Rev. Steve] Gray, a member of First Congregational UCC in Indianapolis (mainly caucasian), has worshiped several times at Trinity UCC and is most impressed by the overflowing sense of welcome it extends to visitors. “When you’re Euro-American, (White) the people [at Trinity UCC] are so exceedingly gracious, warm and welcoming. They hug you and say, ‘Welcome to our church!'”

    This ramped-up smear campaign against the UCC’s largest congregation and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s home church — Trinity UCC in Chicago — has raised the ire of the Rev. John H. Thomas, the UCC’s general minister and president, who called the e-mail-driven claims “absurd, mean-spirited and politically motivated.”

  • what the Dem nominee needs to do day one is to hack Nader down so he only pulls 1-2%, any more than that will be handing the election to McCain. Sure being a spoiler candidate is allowed, but all you are doing is saying “look at me, look at me”. No one really believes you could be President.

    Ralph, siddown and shadddup you have been playing that old broken tune for 8 years!

  • Greg I see you wasn’t paying attention to Obama’s speech on race. He was clearly saving America form people like you. Listen to all the rage in you heart and the haterd you display, but you condenm Pastor Wright. Obama was talking to Pastor Wright as well, both of you need to listen to it again because clearly you missed the message. Think about it the slaves were freed with no home or place to go to. At some point 200 years later we still haven’t addressed the issue. It has had a major impact on black and it’s time to talk about!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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