Thursday’s campaign round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Barack Obama conceded to CNN yesterday that the Jeremiah Wright flap has taken a toll. “In some ways this, this controversy has actually shaken me up a little bit and gotten me back into remembering that the odds of me getting elected have always been lower than some of the other conventional candidates,” the Illinois senator told Anderson Cooper

* As the Take Back America conference in Washington wraps up, it appears that progressive activists prefer Obama to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin. A Politico.com straw poll conducted at the event showed Obama ahead by a 3-to-1 margin, 72% to 16%. Moreover, 86% of conference participants said they would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee, while 48% said the same of Clinton.

* Yet another House GOP Republican incumbent is retiring: “GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall…. [T]he recent NRCC fraud scandal – some of which took place on his watch – has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year.”

* A new CBS/NYT poll shows Obama leading Clinton nationally, but his margin has shrunk considerably in the wake of the Wright flap. Obama is now up by just three, 46% to 43%. Nevertheless, the same poll shows Obama leading McCain nationally by five points, while Clinton leads McCain by two.

* A hint of the right-wing, race-based ugliness to come: “I often find it quaint when Republicans go after anyone for hateful rhetoric or race prejudice when it’s been a major pillar of GOP coalition going back more than 40 years. The co-founder of Laura Ingraham’s radio show who now helps run Hugh Hewitt’s ‘Salem Radio Network’ has mixed an Obama video interweaving Obama with Malcolm X, the Black Power salute at the Mexico City Olympics and Public Enemy’s ‘Fight the Power’.”

* Pennsylvania’s primary is still a month off, but for now, Clinton’s lead in the state seems to be getting bigger, not smaller. According to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll, Clinton now leads by 16, 51% to 35%.

* Speaking of big Clinton leads, it looks like Obama doesn’t stand much of a chance in West Virginia — a new Rasmussen poll shows Clinton way ahead, 55% to 27%.

* Remember the Bredesen “superdelegate primary” we talked about yesterday? The Obama campaign apparently loves it, but the Clinton campaign said the idea was a good one that will “never happen.”

* Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), who is retiring at the end of the year, suggests in his new book that another political party might be necessary. It’s hard to say exactly what the party would look like, but from press accounts, it appears that Hagel wants a conservative party with no neocons.

* After the McCain campaign attacked Obama for making hay of McCain’s Iran/al Qaeda gaffe, the Obama campaign’s Bill Burton released a statement: “We wish the McCain campaign well as they try to figure out the difference between Iran and al Qaeda.”

* And NBC News’ Chuck Todd had an interesting prediction yesterday: “I think Michigan is not going to have a revote. I think the Obama people are going to play a game of chicken on this, and figure they’re going to make Michigan Democrats mad. I think you’re going to see a hopefulness by the Obama people that they put this away by May 6th, which is the day of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, and then go ahead and seat Florida and Michigan fully as the nominee, with nothing to fear. That’s the Obama hope.”

I think the “shaken me up” has been misreported…

I saw it last night and it did not seem that he was saying it had “taken a toll” on him. He seemed to clearly be saying that it helped him to re-focus on the challenges he faces as a candidate…

“Wake-up call” would be a better way of putting it…

  • Regarding the Politico straw poll at the Take Back America conference, 72% to 16% translates to a 4.5-to-1 lead, not 3-to-1.

  • * As the Take Back America conference in Washington wraps up, it appears that progressive activists prefer Obama to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin.

    Well sure, ignore the regressive activists who prefer Clinton 4.62 to 1.33.

    Ironic that Obama’s touting of his religion has come back to bite him.

  • “Wake-up call” would be a better way of putting it…

    That was my take too. He said they’d had great successes, gotten complacent before OH/TX, and now seemed back on track.

  • Feel free to make that there new party, Chuck, Invite your friends – invite your co-workers.

    Do to the American right what’s happened to the Canadian left (split between a social democratic party and centre-left party, with the now united Conservatives sweeping up the remainder).

  • Obama said, “I think we were starting to get a little comfortable and conventional right before Texas and Ohio”

    That’s my perception. Isn’t it nice that a candidate can actually see what’s happening rather than being delusional like most of the others?

  • CB: As the Take Back America conference in Washington wraps up, it appears that progressive activists prefer Obama to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin.

    implicit in that statement is that to take back america one must remove the foxes from guarding the henhouse.

  • So people went for Obama more at the Take Back America conference, this is like going to century village (a retirement community) to find out that Clinton has the advantage, I’m not impressed.

    CNN is using Gallup’s poll which shows Clinton ahead by 7 points, I’m not sure I necessarily agree with CBS that Obama is ahead based on the other major polls, but does show that he is in fact losing ground. SurveyUSA also has Obama losing ground.

    I suspect poll numbers will change drastically when the 527’s start their commercial onslaught.

  • […] it appears that progressive activists prefer Obama to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin. — CB

    Ah, bah! “Progressive”? Who cares about the unhinged lefty fringe? And “activists”? The morons who man the phones and pound the streets door to door for the price of a latte? Not important at all. Bet ya none of them is a lobbyist, either. Starry-eyed trash.

  • That Gallup “Poll” is just a part of the right-wing Republican party. They had Bush way ahead of Kerry back in 2004: they were interviewing more Republicans than Democrats, so their “findings” were not too surprising… Gallup helped pave the way for public acceptance of the silent electronic flipping of some seven million votes from Kerry to Bush on Election Night, 2004. With Diebold all things are possible, even “surprising” Republican victories..

    These GOP criminals have been electronically hacking, rigging, flipping and stealing elections since 1996, when Chuck Hagel became Senator, having had his own voting machine company “count” the votes in Nebraska. Not even a paltry little paper trail. Just “trust” Republican corporations to “count” the votes… Just do a little Google searching on the subject and learn something! Or be like the ostriches at DailyKos and just keep your head in the sand…

  • So Obama is preferred by Progressives and Conservatives.

    …But Clinton is preferred by Liberals and Centrists.

    Yeah, well, obviously the campaigns need to learn from one another, because if we could get all of their supporters together, we couldn’t lose.

    McCain was a useful Republican, mostly when he wasn’t running for president. Once he loses, we’ll probably be able to count on his vote again for reform bills instead of his absence. You don’t attract long-time liberals by saying you admire Reagan, either…

  • As we now know with a high degree of mathematical certainty that Obama is going to be the nominee of the democratic party, does anyone know of existing 527’s that will match the rethug 527’s $ for $ and slime for slime?

    I believe that both McCain & Obama will run campaigns largely free of the worst of the slime. The 527’s will be the key & counterkey to the slime campaigns which are sure to come.

    I want to see as many $$$ & slime in front of the American people flashing McCrap & his wacked out preachers ideas as the American people are going to see of Obama & Wright. I think in the long run Obama wins this slime battle.

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