It’s easy to get discouraged watching the Democratic presidential race, and start to wonder just how badly the prolonged process will undermine the party’s chances in November.
But don’t feel too despondent — this is the kind of edge that can pay significant dividends on Election Day.
The Democratic Party has increased its margin in voters who identify with it rather than Republicans, and going into this year’s election has increased its advantage among independent voters and in swing states, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted during the first two months of this year.
Pew says voters now favor the Democrats by a “decidedly larger margin” than the previous two election cycles.
Voters who identify themselves as Independents actually occupy first place at 37 percent, followed by Democrats at 36 percent and Republicans at 27 percent. That’s a 3 point gain for Democrats since 2004 and a 6 point drop for Republicans, putting them at their lowest ebb in 16 years.
Self-identified independents, if pressed on which way they lean, prefer Dems to Republicans, 15% to 10%. (Four years ago, this number was roughly even.) As such, if we include “leaners,” Dems lead Republicans, 51% to 37%.
This is even more encouraging still when we consider how this breaks down at the state level.
* In the 12 states were voting was closest in the last two presidential races, Democrats now hold a 38 percent to 27 percent lead among voters who identify with either party. Those numbers were roughly equal in the last two presidential elections.
* In states that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won by 5 points or more in 2004, the Democratic margin over Republicans has grown from 10 points to 18 points. “Red States” won by President Bush by 5 points or more have remained relatively stable.
* Democrats have made significant gains in three of four swing states – Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Michigan (17 electoral votes) while party identification remains relatively close in Florida (27 electoral votes). Democrats lead 37 percent to 25 percent in Ohio, a turnaround of 14 points since 2004; 43 percent to 31 percent in Pennsylvania, a gap 8 points greater than 2004; and 34 percent to 24 percent in Michigan, increasing the difference by 8 points. In Florida, Democrats lead 35 percent to 32 percent, about the same as 2004. […]
* Among key red states, there has been a marked falloff in Republican versus Democratic identification in North Carolina (15 electoral votes) where, after there being a roughly even balance a few years ago, Democrats lead 36 percent to 29 percent. In Virginia (13 electoral votes), where much has been written about it going from “red” to “purple,” Democrats have gone from a tie with the GOP in 2004 to a modest 4 point advantage. The Republican dominance in Texas (34 electoral votes) has fallen from 37 percent to 30 percent in 2004 to 33 percent to 30 percent now. Georgia (15 electoral votes) remains about even.
Obviously, it’s a mistake to extrapolate predicted election results from party ID numbers. It just doesn’t work that way. But this kind of swing, especially in key battleground states, points to a dynamic in which Dems go into the fall with a clear edge.
The party can still manage to blow the opportunity, but at least in the short term, consider this your morale boost for the day.