That Hillary Clinton intends to stay in the presidential race for the next five months is no longer in doubt; the question now becomes what kind of race she’ll run between now and August.
On “Meet the Press” yesterday, David Brooks raised an interesting comparison.
“I think she should slow down the campaign, run what Mike Huckabee ran, a dignified campaign, not attacking her opponents, go through North Carolina and then get out. She really has very little opportunity to win. The Jeremiah Wright thing was big, the big scandal, the biggest thing Barack Obama’s faced really in months. It didn’t hurt him. We now have the polling results from poll after poll. It’s clear it didn’t hurt him. The voters were not shaken off him. The — Michigan and Florida are not going to revote, the superdelegates are never going to overrule the pledge delegates, so her chances are really small.”
From there, Brooks went on to say a number of things I disagreed with, including taking some cheap shots at Howard Dean, but the Mike Huckabee comparison struck me as fairly compelling.
It was about a month ago — which, lately, seems like a year ago — but throughout February and the first week in March, John McCain had built up an insurmountable lead in the Republican primaries. Mike Huckabee didn’t stand much of a chance, but he stuck around anyway, hitting the trail and making his case. McCain gently urged him to get out of the way, but Huckabee lingered, waiting. He didn’t do anything to undermine McCain or hurt the party, but hesitated before bowing out altogether until McCain officially clinched by crossing the delegate threshold.
It’s hard to know for sure what Huckabee hoped to accomplish, but I suspect he had two principal motivations: he wanted to demonstrate his skills as a candidate in case McCain would consider him as a running mate, and he wanted to be there just in case an unexpected scandal forced McCain from the race. If there were a surprise and McCain had to bow out, Huckabee would be the last one standing.
Given the hurdles in front of her, there are worse models for the Clinton campaign to follow.
The scorched-earth approach (or the Tonya Harding approach, or the kitchen-sink strategy, etc.) hasn’t paid dividends of late. Brooks seems right about this — Obama was hit with a major story that put his bid in jeopardy, but he seems to have successfully weathered the storm. His lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has reached double-digits for the first time. All the while, Clinton’s negatives seem to be going up, not down.
With this in mind, Isaac Chotiner argued that the Huckabee Option has surprising appeal.
First off, it would engender some good will toward Senator Clinton within the party and among Obama’s supporters. Second, it would leave a better taste in the mouths of those who might consider backing Clinton in 2012 should Obama lose to McCain. And most importantly, it allows her to stay in the game in case something catastrophic occurs. Brooks and Peter Beinart, Tim Russert’s other guest today, both agreed that Clinton’s chances are no better than 5%. That seems about right. And a lot of that 5% can be explained by the possibility of a huge scandal — never out of the question in politics. Since she is not going to win without a giant event, what does she gain by an ugly, divisive contest?
A corollary point to this is about political junkies — myself included. It’s east to get caught up in by the day-to-day news cycle or the minor controversy of the week or the latest superdelegate endorsement. And this stuff counts, especially when perceptions are beginning to form and every last voter in Iowa may make the crucial difference. But right now — at least as far as the Democratic primary is concerned — these things do not matter. Clinton needs a major earthquake, and if she does not get one she will lose. So why not slow things down a bit, hope for a scandal to break, and then drop out if there are no game changers?
I’m not sure what “slowing things down a bit” would look like, exactly, but the gist of this sounds about right.
I’d just add that if Obama’s VP slot is at least somewhere on Clinton’s mind, embracing the Huckabee Option might be a good idea, especially if she’s willing to go after McCain and the GOP aggressively. I was chatting with someone over the weekend about possible Obama running mates and my friend noted that, historically, candidates want an aggressive running mate, willing to play the role of an “attack dog.”
If Clinton would consider a spot on the ticket, what better way to audition than to spend the next few (or five) months hammering McCain at every opportunity?