With nothing else on, everyone watches the Superdelegates Channel

March 31, 2008

The Pennsylvania primary is three weeks from tomorrow, and the polls out of the state are still pretty one-sided. So, what are campaign watchers to do during the lull? Watch the superdelegates.

Slowly but steadily, a string of Democratic Party figures is taking Barack Obama’s side in the presidential nominating race and raising the pressure on Hillary Clinton to give up.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group — just one has so far — before that state’s May 6 primary, several Democrats say.

Helping to drive the endorsements is a fear that the Obama-Clinton contest has grown toxic and threatens the Democratic Party’s chances against Republican John McCain in the fall.

Since this report ran on the WSJ’s front page this morning, Klobuchar announced her support for Obama, but the part about North Carolina’s entire House delegation backing Obama is apparently premature. Obama aides denied it, while Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the only Dem from the delegation to endorse, said Obama will gain support this week from the state’s lawmakers, and the number will be “more than one but less than six.”

Nevertheless, the general trend of superdelegates seems tilted in Obama’s direction. Clinton recently picked up the support of Jack Murtha — and in Pennsylvania, his name carries enormous weight — but he appears to be more the exception than the rule.

Over the last week or so, Obama started with Bill Richardson’s endorsement, then picked up Bob Casey, then Klobuchar, and is now poised to do well among North Carolina’s House delegation.

Since the “Super Tuesday” primaries on Feb. 5, Sen. Obama has won commitments from 64 superdelegates and Sen. Clinton has gotten nine. Sen. Obama has a total of 217 superdelegates in his camp while Sen. Clinton has 250, and her margin has been shrinking with each week. Sen. Clinton would have several more in her tally, but they’re from Michigan, and delegates from Michigan and Florida won’t be seated — at least for now — because both states defied party rules and held their primaries earlier than permitted.

“I think that says a lot about just where people are and what they’re thinking,” says former Senate Majority Leader Thomas Daschle, an Obama supporter. “And I think the numbers are just going to keep getting better” for Sen. Obama. […]

Even raising the prospect of a convention fight could backfire for Sen. Clinton by antagonizing the superdelegates she needs. Many superdelegates are on the ballot themselves this year, and the last thing they want is a chaotic convention that plays into the hands of Republicans.

I hadn’t actually thought much about that last point. I’d assumed the superdelegates would want to wrap up the process sooner rather than later because it will help the party’s chances of winning the White House. But the WSJ piece is also right — a drawn-out nomination fight, culminating in a convention fracas eight weeks before Election Day, doesn’t help the superdelegates in Congress themselves.

Clearly, Hillary Clinton intends to keep fighting, apparently for the next five months. But watch these superdelegates. A senator here and a House member there might not seem like much, but they add up, and if the superdelegates begin to break in large numbers, the writing on the wall will be impossible to ignore.

I am still waiting for someone to answer the big questions!

Under what circumstances can Hillary get the nomination that will have the appearance of legitimacy?

Is there any way that Hillary can get the nomination without ‘destroying’ Obama?

Can the Clintons destroy Obama without destroying the Democratic party for an extended period of time?

  • With the emphasis that the Clinton campaign continues to place on the credentials committee, it seems that no matter what the writing on the wall is, she’s going to continue the fight. As it stands now, the odds are so heavily against her that it’s satirically comical to entertain the notion that she should continue through to the convention. It’s almost like Chjevy Chase doing his Gerald Ford routine on the old SNL episodes (which is scary when I realize that I actually pre-date that).

    Hillary has gone down the rabbit hole on this one—and then filled the blasted thing in behind her. The only option left is to keep digging. She will continue to ignore the numbers, she will continue to ignore the supers; she will ignore the delegate count, even when it makes Obama’s victory official—and if her current course remains unchanged, we may even see an independent run, or at the very least a “stealth boycott” of the general election (the 28%’ers threatening to back McCain if she loses the nomination look, act, and sound an awful lot like the 28%’ers who make up Bu$h’s “das Base”). She can’t even manage to acknowledge that she’s not winning—and being more than 120 delegates behind this late in the race is not “winning.”

  • With the emphasis that the Clinton campaign continues to place on the credentials committee, it seems that no matter what the writing on the wall is, she’s going to continue the fight. As it stands now, the odds are so heavily against her that it’s satirically comical to entertain the notion that she should continue through to the convention. It’s almost like Chevy Chase doing his Gerald Ford routine on the old SNL episodes (which is scary when I realize that I actually pre-date that).

    Hillary has gone down the rabbit hole on this one—and then filled the blasted thing in behind her. The only option left is to keep digging. She will continue to ignore the numbers, she will continue to ignore the supers; she will ignore the delegate count, even when it makes Obama’s victory official—and if her current course remains unchanged, we may even see an independent run, or at the very least a “stealth boycott” of the general election (the 28%’ers threatening to back McCain if she loses the nomination look, act, and sound an awful lot like the 28%’ers who make up Bu$h’s “das Base”). She can’t even manage to acknowledge that she’s not winning—and being more than 120 delegates behind this late in the race is not “winning.”

  • the writing on the wall will be impossible to ignore. It’s the same writing that’s on the wall now. It’s over.

  • Can the Clintons destroy Obama without destroying the Democratic party for an extended period of time?

    I’d say the answer to that is obviously no, but do the Clintons care? The answer to that also seems to be no.

    The superdelegates don’t want to look like they’re short-circuiting the primary, but the math is becoming very clear now and with McCain running off in his MSM lovemobile I think it becomes less and less defensible to accept the Clintonian logic of “we can’t tell what will happen so let’s keep it going”.

    I think what keeps team HRC motivated is an unshakable and unspeakable belief that the American people (on average) are racists who will not vote for a black man yet, no matter how talented he may be. If you believed that, you would act just like they are acting. There may be a lot of superdelegates who are also fearful of the latent racism that exists and the Republican ability to make it come out. It hasn’t been that long since we used fire hoses on black people, and a lot of Americans who are still alive approved of that.

    Sometimes I wonder if there are enough smart people in America to overcome the morons. If McCain keeps sailing along with high positives despite his explicit statements that he wants to continue the policies of the unpopular Bush, then I think it will be evident that the morons will have won.

  • “Sometimes I wonder if there are enough smart people in America to overcome the morons.”

    our track record over the past eight years hasn’t been very encouraging, has it racerx?

  • The Pennsylvania primary is three weeks from tomorrow, and the polls out of the state are still pretty one-sided.

    The Clinton team have done a pretty good job of convincing everyone that Pennsylvania matters in a way that other states do not. Nobody argued that Obama’s victory in Mississippi and Wyoming derailed her “momentum”, because everyone knew that Obama was going to win Mississippi by double digits. Nobody worried that she wasn’t able to close the gap. In fact, it was assumed that she wouldn’t even try.

    Likewise, it didn’t matter that Obama closed to within 3 points in Texas, because Clinton won the state – even though she lost the caucus.

    North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota won’t matter either.

  • Wasn’t it H.L. Menken who said, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”?

  • YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

    If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose 😉 husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

    You Might Be An Idiot!

    If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. 🙂

    Best regards

    jacksmith…

    Caucuses are undemocratic and BOGUS! And Texas proves it.

  • DON’T BE DUPED !!!

    Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Barack Obama in the DEMOCRATIC primaries, and caucuses from early on. Because they feel he would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. And because they feel that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket would be unbeatable. And also because with a Clinton and Obama ticket you are almost 100% certain to get quality, affordable universal health care very soon.

    But first, all of you have to make certain that Hillary Clinton takes the democratic nomination and then the Whitehouse. NOW! is the time. THIS! is the moment you have all been working, and waiting for. You can do this America. “Carpe diem” (harvest the day).

    I think Hillary Clinton see’s a beautiful world of plenty for all. She is a woman, and a mother. And it’s time America. Do this for your-selves, and your children’s future. You will have to work together on this and be aggressive, relentless, and creative. Americans face an even worse catastrophe ahead than the one you are living through now.

    You see, the medical and insurance industry mostly support the republicans with the money they ripped off from you. And they don’t want you to have quality, affordable universal health care. They want to be able to continue to rip you off, and kill you and your children by continuing to deny you life saving medical care that you have already paid for. So they can continue to make more immoral profits for them-selves.

    Hillary Clinton has actually won by much larger margins than the vote totals showed. And lost by much smaller vote margins than the vote totals showed. Her delegate count is actually much higher than it shows. And higher than Obama’s. She also leads in the electoral college numbers that you must win to become President in the November national election. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALREADY THE TRUE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE!

    As much as 30% of Obama’s primary, and caucus votes are Republicans trying to choose the weakest democratic candidate for McCain to run against. These Republicans have been gaming the caucuses where it is easier to vote cheat. This is why Obama has not been able to win the BIG! states primaries. Even with Republican vote cheating help.

    Hillary Clinton has been out manned, out gunned, and out spent 2 and 3 to 1. Yet Obama has only been able to manage a very tenuous, and questionable tie with Hillary Clinton.

    If Obama is the democratic nominee for the national election in November he will be slaughtered. Because the Republican vote cheating help will suddenly evaporate. All of this vote fraud and republican manipulation has made Obama falsely look like a much stronger candidate than he really is. YOUNG PEOPLE. DON’T BE DUPED! Think about it. You have the most to lose.

    The democratic party needs to fix this outrage. I suggest a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket. Everyone needs to throw all your support to Hillary Clinton NOW! So you can end this outrage against YOU the voter, and against democracy.

    I think Barack Obama has a once in a life time chance to make the ultimate historic gesture for unity, and change in America by accepting Hillary Clinton’s offer as running mate. Such an act now would for ever seal Barack Obama’s place at the top of the list of Americas all time great leaders, and unifiers for all of history.

    The democratic party, and the super-delegates have a decision to make. Are the democrats, and the democratic party going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee to fight for the American people. Or are the republicans going to choose the DEMOCRATIC party nominee through vote fraud, and gaming the DEMOCRATIC party primaries, and caucuses.

    Fortunately the Clinton’s have been able to hold on against this fraudulent outrage with those repeated dramatic comebacks of Hillary Clinton’s. Only the Clinton’s are that resourceful, and strong. Hillary Clinton is your NOMINEE. They are the best I have ever seen.

    “This is not a game” (Hillary Clinton)

    Sincerely

    jacksmith…

  • You might be an idiot if you’re stupid enough to believe Hillary has “35 years of experience” (doing what exactly?) and Obama has “little or no experience”.

  • Jacksmith has just jumped the shark with his repeated copy/pasting of his inane drivel. I suggest, CB, that you vote that jerk off the island permanently.

  • DON’T BE DUPED !!!

    Large numbers of Republicans have been voting for Hillary Clinton in the DEMOCRATIC primaries and caucuses from early on. Because they feel she would be a weaker opponent against John McCain. It is what is known to anyone paying any much attention as Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” strategy where large number of Republicans are encouraged to vote for her just to keep “chaos” going– because they know they need to run against her to get the McCain vote out. Without Hillary to run against they’re afraid the religious right just might stay home.

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