Tuesday’s campaign round-up

April 1, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A new Rasmussen poll out of Pennsylvania has caused a bit of a stir, showing Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five points, 47% to 42%. This is down from a 10-point lead in a Rasmussen poll a week ago, and a 13-point lead two weeks ago.

* On the other hand, SurveyUSA also has a new Pennsylvania poll out this morning, and it shows Clinton up by 12, 53% to 41%. The trend seems to be in Obama’s direction — Clinton led by 19 points in a SUSA poll a couple of weeks ago.

* In her TV interviews this week, Clinton is pushing hard the notion that Obama is trying to force her from the race, but Obama is taking a very different line publicly. This morning, on the “Today” show, Obama said, “[S]he has certainly earned the right to stay in this race as long as she wants. She has run a formidable race. I mean, we won 11 contests in a row and that didn’t knock her out. And that’s some tenacity on her part…. And I think she deserves to be able to run and make her case.”

* On a related note, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined on “Good Morning America” today to join the chorus of those calling for an end to the nomination fight. “I think that for all that I have said about respecting the will of the people that the inference to be drawn from that is that we have to continue the election in terms of hearing from the people,” Pelosi said.

* In a Gallup poll released yesterday, majorities in both parties said Obama would be a tougher general-election candidate against John McCain than Clinton. Among Dems, 59% said Obama has a better chance in November, and among Republicans, 64% said Clinton would be easier to beat.

* There’s a very odd quirk in the daily Gallup tracking polls: Clinton does better mid-week, while Obama does better later in the week and/or on weekends. Hmm.

* The list of “must-win” states for Clinton has been a little unpredictable, but it seems the new conventional wisdom is looking past North Carolina and eyeing Indiana.

* Of all the upcoming races, I think Clinton has Kentucky in the bag — a new SurveyUSA poll shows Clinton leading by 29 points, 58% to 29%.

* For those who are obsessively tracking delegate counts, Obama’s margin of victory in Mississippi has been recalculated and he picked up an extra delegate.

* I really wish people would not ask Chelsea Clinton a bunch of Lewinsky-related questions. First, it’s cheap. Second, she’s not going to answer. And third, what, exactly, do people expect her to say?

* And in light of April Fool’s Day and McCain’s scheduled appearance on Letterman tonight, the DNC released a very amusing “Top 10 Reasons to Elect John McCain.” It touches all the bases, but my personal favorite was #6: “He won’t need Dick Cheney to tell members of Congress to ‘go f— yourself.'”

SurveyUSA is the poll you should really pay attention to. Their accuracy so far this cycle has been unbelievable and blows every other poll out of the water.

So it means that Obama still is far behind but is making headway.

  • Clinton does better mid-week, while Obama does better later in the week and/or on weekends. Hmm.

    Weird. Maybe when they call midweek, they get more of Hillary’s base — elderly shut-ins?

    I kid, I kid…

  • I find it hard to believe that Dems accept Hillary’s “I’m not goin to quit” and “Obama wants to take away your right to vote” nonsense. They both mirror Bush’s oversimplifications. In fact the new mantra from the media is “resolute”. Doesn’t that word make bells go off in everyone’s head?

  • In her TV interviews this week, Clinton is pushing hard the notion that Obama is trying to force her from the race, but Obama is taking a very different line publicly.

    She’s just misspeaking. No big deal to claim Obama has said things he hasn’t.

    Plus, isn’t it cute how in the same breath she advocates listening to the will of the people and at the same time seeks to overturn their vote using superdelegates?

    Oh, that Hillary Clinton. She’s a sneaky one.

  • polls are more of an art than a science, a sample of around 1,000 and sometimes less may not accurately reflect the bigger picture. People make up their own minds, and some people really don’t watch the news that much.

  • There’s no mystery as to why Obama, who has admitted to a former drug problem, does better in weekend polls. All of the drunk and stoned party kids answer the phone on Fridays and Saturdays. In their delirious, everything-is-groovy fairy-tale condition, they just can’t say enough good things to the pollsters about Mr. Smooth and how cool he is. Midweek polls are more trustworthy because they lean toward sober and productive Democrats, for example women, who do the lion’s share of hard work in this society without the glory.

  • …among Republicans, 64% said Clinton would be easier to beat…

    Hence her growing (and significant) support from Rush’s thugs in all the primaries where they could muck with us which occurred after McCain locked up the nomination.

    But of course the Hillary people think that’s irrelevant.

  • In the second-to-last paragraph, the ‘Lewinsky-related questions’ link is broken.

  • Plus, isn’t it cute how in the same breath she advocates listening to the will of the people and at the same time seeks to overturn their vote using superdelegates?

    Mark Penn says the will of the people matters if they vote for Hillary, but if they don’t, then the superdelegates need to overrule their will for the good of the Hillary. I mean, party. Good of the party.

  • Insane Fake Professor:

    I’ve heard that Obama thinks he can clap his hands and solve all our problems. As anyone who’s read the books of Afrocentrism knows, this is a lie. A lie. Hillary Clinton is the only one who can solve our problems with hand clapping.

    My question is: what other powers does she have?

  • Stop egging me on. I have to stop this. Problem is, it’s so much fun.

  • Hence her growing (and significant) support from Rush’s thugs in all the primaries… -Racer X

    It’s not just Rush anymore:

    Talk radio hostess Victoria Taft, a familiar Republican voice in the Democratic-leaning Pacific Northwest, said that even in her wildest dreams, she never imagined urging her listeners to vote for Clinton.

    But these days, Taft is firmly on the New York senator’s bandwagon, along with national conservative talk radio heavyweights like Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham.

    With supporters like these, who needs Democrats?

  • Every less percentage point Clinton eventually wins Pennsylvania by – when compared to her original levels of support – is a defeat for her. I would certainly love Rasmussen to be right, but even SUSA is right, that’s OK. The election is 3 weeks away and if Clinton keeps bleeding support at the rate she has even with SUSA, she’ll be down to a less-than-5% victory, which everyone will see as a defeat.

    Obama is being gracious to the defeated opponent. It’s classic Sun Tzu: you always leave the enemy an honorable retreat.

  • HillarySpeak: LOOK! THAT SCARY MAN OVER THERE IS SAYING I SHOULD STAY IN THE RACE! WHY DOES HE WANT ME TO QUIT?!? SCARY! SCARY!! SCA-A-A-A-ARY!!!

    And here I thought that nothing in the world could be so obnoxiously stupid as James “Plague-Rat” Carville. Good gods—she makes O’Reilly look sane—and that’s supposed to be a really hard thing to do. Maybe she’s trying out to be the new host of that factor-thingie show he’s got.

    As for the Rasmussen up-n-down thing, it’s easy: Hillary spends the weekend with her flying monkeys, inventing a new lie. The lie peaks by midweek, and the house lands on the Witch of the East her by Friday morning.

  • Stop egging me on. I have to stop this. Problem is, it’s so much fun.

    Don’t rob the rest of us of this. This is a gift that keeps on giving — and apparently keeps the real IFP away.

  • Oh, I don’t think I’m doing it, TR. I think she’s lying low after the “I was once the only white person living in Chicago” debacle.

  • I think she’s lying low after the “I was once the only white person living in Chicago” debacle.

    Yeah, that was a level of humiliation which might have managed to break through even her dense shell.

    Of course, she’s apparently 113 years old, so it might just be her sciatica flaring up.

  • what, exactly, do people expect her to say?

    How about this: “It was a trying time for our family, of course, but I’m fortunate and proud that my parents worked through their difficulties and stayed together. Not all of us with parents in high-profile political positions are so fortunate.”

  • “I really wish people would not ask Chelsea Clinton a bunch of Lewinsky-related questions.”

    I agree. But I’m not entirely happy with Chelsea’s standard “none of your business” response. I know it gets applause, but this response, in my opinion, seems to play into the long-running victim/indignant theme of Hillary’s campaign.

    I’d prefer a more classy, “With respect, I hope you can empathize with the fact that I’m not comfortable discussing this topic. Next question.”

  • This morning on Alternet I came across a moderately amusing piece by Chip Collis called Top Ten Myths about Why Clinton Should Stay in the Race” (or something very like):

    http://www.alternet.org/election08/80870/

    It’s apparently also crossposted at Huffington. Here’s my favorite throwaway line – not funny, just deflates one of those lies the Clinton trolls are always throwing around about how Obama is trying to “disenfranchise” voters:

    “Recent stories in the St. Petersburg Times political blog said that 1) the Obama camp has reached out to the Florida Democratic party about a compromise and that 2) the Clinton camp will discuss nothing else but re-votes, which are legally, practically and politically dead.”

    Another point that Collis debunks is that the popular vote so far is a “statistical tie” – since it is an actual vote number and not a poll with a percentage of error built in, there is no need for statistics. It is what it is, and Obama is ahead by 3%.

    Clinton is spending some time in her speeches talking about what’s going on in the world and why the Bush/McCain responses are insufficient – so we shouldn’t hold her totally responsible for the focus of her media coverage – but she could certainly be more focused on the problems presidential candidates will be facing if they succeed, and less on all this cry-baby stuff.

  • Hillary comparing herself to “Rocky”? Last I remembered- “Rocky” endorsed McCain! Is there something here that she’s trying to tell us???

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