The awkward political reality of every campaign controversy is that every story has to be considered on two levels: on the merits and whether it will “matter.” If the needle doesn’t move, the story is deemed irrelevant.
The interest in Barack Obama’s “bitter” comments, for example, has left the political world with bated breath, wondering what the polls say. Since the story broke on Friday, the chattering class has speculated at length about how voters might respond to the remarks (and the overheated coverage of said remarks), without having any idea whether anyone would actually care as much as they do. The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza noted this morning that if the polls show Hillary Clinton getting a significant bump in the polls, “bitter-gate” will look like “a seminal moment in the campaign,” and may even doom Obama’s campaign. If she doesn’t, “all of this will quickly be relegated to the dustbin of history as much sound and fury signifying nothing.”
So, what’s the verdict? At this point, the data points towards the latter. Eric Kleefeld reported:
The Pennsylvania polls are coming fast and furious today — and while most show a slight uptick in support for Hillary, they all appear to indicate that Obama’s “small town” comments are not yet causing any big movement.
SurveyUSA shows Obama gaining a couple of points, with a strong majority of Pennsylvanians saying they weren’t offended by the remarks. Rasmussen shows Clinton gaining a couple of points, with a plurality concluding that Obama’s comments were not “elitist.” Quinnipiac, meanwhile, shows no change at all.
What about the national picture? The Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows Obama maintaining his lead, with “a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.” The 11-point margin in the poll, taken in the midst of the media flare-up, “is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin.”
As campaign-changing moments go, this flap is starting to look a little underwhelming.
That said, Obama fans shouldn’t get too excited and assume that the storm has entirely blown over. Here are a few angles to consider:
* Ads: The media was all over this story over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean everyone heard about it. The Clinton campaign just started advertising on this last night, so the number of people who might yet be offended could still go up.
* Momentum: The polls show very little movement in Pennsylvania, but the news could be better for Obama. Before the “bitter” story, Obama was closing the gap in several polls, and that seems to have come to a halt. (Josh Marshall notes the parallel between this and the week before the Ohio and Texas primaries in March: “Obama appeared to be making headway until the Nafta controversy and (possibly) the 3 AM ad blunted his momentum.”)
* Debate: Clinton and Obama will share a stage tomorrow night for their first debate in about seven weeks. If people haven’t heard much about the story, or Obama’s defense, they will tomorrow.
* Delayed reaction: Sometimes there’s a lag in the polls. These early numbers look like the story hasn’t affected public opinion, but it might just need some more time.
* A change of subject: Cillizza added an interesting observation about Rep. Geoff Davis (R-Ken.) calling Obama “that boy.”
That comment could — and we emphasize could — turn Obama into a sympathetic figure in the eyes of many Democrats who might otherwise have been offended by what the Illinois senator had to say. There is no quicker way to rally the Democratic base around a candidate than for that candidate to come under attack from Republicans. If those sorts of remarks persist, the story could drastically turn in Obama’s favor.
Stay tuned.