Tuesday’s campaign round-up

April 29, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Hillary Clinton picked up a very helpful endorsement this morning, earning the support of North Carolina Gov. Michael Easley. The two campaigned together in Raleigh, one week before the state’s Democratic primary. Easley is, of course, a superdelegate.

* Speaking of North Carolina, a new Rasmussen poll still shows Barack Obama with a double-digit lead, but his margin is shrinking. Earlier this month, Obama led by 23 (56% to 33%), whereas now, with a week to go, Obama leads by 14 (51% to 37%).

* Barack Obama picked up a superdelegate endorsement of his own yesterday, when Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) threw his support to Obama. At this point, Obama now leads Clinton on endorsements from their Senate colleagues.

* In still more endorsement news, Obama will also pick up the support today of Rep. Ben Chandler (D) in Kentucky. Eric Kleefeld noted the oddity: “Kentucky may well be [Obama’s] single worst state in the Union in both primary and general election polls, and thus it doesn’t seem like he’d be much help to them at the top of the ticket.” Kentuckians head to the polls in three weeks.

* With a week to go before the Indiana primary, SurveyUSA has Clinton leading Obama, 52% to 43%. The nine-point margin is down from a 16-point lead Clinton enjoyed in a SUSA poll two weeks ago.

* A national AP/Ipsos poll released yesterday showed Clinton leading McCain by nine (50% to 41%) in a general election match-up, while Obama leads McCain by two (46% to 44%).

* Greg Sargent found an interesting tidbit in the same AP/Ipsos poll: at least for now, Clinton’s faring much better among independents. A few weeks ago, this poll showed Clinton and McCain about even among independents; now, it shows her with a 16-point lead (50% to 34%). Is the AP/Ipsos poll an outlier or part of some new trend?

* Obama appears to enjoy a general-election edge in Wisconsin, where Obama leads McCain by four, while McCain leads Clinton by six.

* The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll continues to show a very close race, with Obama now leading Clinton by just one, 47% to 46%.

* SEIU is on the air in Ohio with a new ad hitting McCain on healthcare.

* Ending the suspense, and dashing Dems’ hopes of yet another open Senate seat for Republicans to defend, Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) will seek re-election this year.

At this point, Obama now leads Clinton on endorsements from their Senate colleagues.

This won’t matter since Mr. Satin Speech will be returning to the Senate after the convention. Meanwhile, Senator Clinton will be on her way to the White House, where she will deal with the Senate on her own terms. A lot of Democratic senators are going to be very surprised at how little interest President Clinton will show in their bills and pet legislation, but they’ll only be getting what they deserve for deserting her. The Republicans have been consistent in her support of her and so it’s only natural that she’ll favor their policies when she’s president.

  • Aaaaaaaand the lovely Governor Easley says Hillary Clinton “makes Rocky Balboa look like a pansy.”

    Nice gay-bashing, asshat.

  • IFP, another good one – a little too spot on, though. That is exactly the old politics we need to get away from. And exactly what Clinton brings to the WH.

    It’s time for a new approach…the old one isn’t working.

    I hate to say it, and if it weren’t for Russ Feingold and a couple of others, I wouldn’t: We need term limits in a bad way. Too much time spent in DC creates corruption. The money is just too much to turn away from and too many greedy people who want for everything.

  • Payback is a bitch

    I feel sorry for the Obama supporters when President Clinton takes office in January

  • I am not the least bit shocked that polls are showing the race tightening in North Carolina. After all, 23 points is a huge spread and also, strategically, Obama is wise to spend more resources in Indiana to keep that race close. He can afford a few points in North Carolina, but he cannot afford to let Indiana become a double digit loss.

  • * SEIU is on the air in Ohio with a new ad hitting McCain on healthcare.,/i>

    CNN just had an interesting sequence. First McCain outlined a new proposal whereby anyone could join a healthcare plan, notify the gov’t and have them pay $2500/individual or 5000/family directly to the healthcare company. His argument was not that it would give healthcare to more people, but rather that it would lower premiums because of individual choices.

    Ten minutes later came the SEIU ad, saying McCain voted against SCHIP and “letting seniors buy precription drugs through Medicare”.

    Then CNN interviewed an expert – Shawn Tully, Editor-at-large for Fortune, who compared McCain’s plan to the “Democrat candidates’ plans (that should give you a clue). This guy argued that Clinton’s plan won’t work, because it’s just like Massachusetts’ program, and many people are violating the mandate by choosing penalties over signing up for med plans. But the way McCain’s plan would lower prices, though he worded it more cleverly, was to let HMO’s reduce prices by offering plans that don’t pay for all those nasty diseases nobody gets.

  • I’m getting tired of these polls pitting a nominee (Clinton or Obama) against an actual candidate (McCain). At this point I’d love to see a poll that just asked people if they were planning to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate regardless of who the candidates are, straight up. That would be a lot more telling of the actual public mood, to my way of thinking.

    My guess is that the responses would be divided between those who will vote for the Democratic candidate and those whose sole source of information is FOX News. Just a guess, mind you.

  • independent thinker: Yes, and although NC has a relatively large African American population and an exploding highly educated, racially diverse demographic in the Triangle, it still has its share of self-satisfied good old white boys.

    Just watch the video of Governor Easley for an example. He even manages to patronize Clinton and his own wife as he’s busily gay-bashing. Naturally Clinton laughs merrily while all this is going on. Anything for an endorsement–they’re awfully few and far between for her now.

  • When I get attached to expectations I remember how incredibly popular Bush 1 was just a few months before the election.

  • Neil Wilson,

    Whatever you are smoking must be good. Clinton cannot overcome Obama’s pledged delegate lead. So she turns negative in a desperate attempt to rip Obama down and convice the Supers to vote en mas for her.

    In the end, all the slight of hand about popular vote, electoral college, caucuses don’t count and on and on is so much hot air. Delegates are the only measure that counts and Obama is winning. The simple fact is when all the states and territories have held their primaries or caucuses, Obama will have in the neighborhood of 1930-ish delegates. Clinton will have 1780-ish.

  • Insane Fake Professor in #1: “A lot of Democratic senators are going to be very surprised at how little interest President Clinton will show in their bills and pet legislation, but they’ll only be getting what they deserve for deserting her.”

    You have made a perfect case here for not electing Hillary Clinton. A more precise “politics as usual” I can’t fathom than the neener-neener crap that never moves the country forward.

  • I will be so glad when this election is over and we can all go back to bashing Republicans, instead of each other. It is tiring.

  • # 2 Aaaaaaaand the lovely Governor Easley says Hillary Clinton “makes Rocky Balboa look like a pansy.”

    That’s the message. Clinton is tough while Barak cannot stand up to Wright, wouldn’t debate, looks tired and is taking punches left and right. Wait and see, Indiana is going to be a rout for Barak and the analysis of the polls in NC are going to show that he cannot make inroads in key demographics. Wait and see. He better be ready to give his full support to Hilary. His place in history is 8 years from now, shouldn’t waste it.

  • “The Republicans have been consistent in her support of her and so it’s only natural that she’ll favor their policies when she’s president.”

    Virginia, this little comment by IFP is even more telling, and let’s us know something very interesting about those Clinton supporters who have declared that they would vote for McCain over Obama. They used to be called “Reagan Democrats.” As far as I’m concerned, it’s one more reason for Dems NOT to support Hillary is a primary.

  • So I’m assuming you all agree that Hillary can claim a win in North Carolina if she cuts Obama’s initial almost thirty point lead in North Carolina in half by election day.

    All those who think that argument is ridiculous can also ask themselves why at the same time they were trying to say last week that Hillary’s large win in Pennsylvania over Obama was somehow a win for him since the difference was smaller than the initial polls.

    I also hope you don’t try to make the same stupid argument for Obama when she wins in Indiana.

  • Before Super Tuesday, I was sneering at people who said that if their candidate didn’t win, they wouldn’t vote in the general election. After watching the nastiness that HRC spews, and seeing how comfortable conservatives seem to be with her, I am actually thinking of joining those who say they won’t vote. I really don’t think she would improve the second-biggest problem in Washington, which is the divisive climate.

    (The biggest problem is corporate control – – but since my original candidate, Edwards, couldn’t win, I’m resigned to concluding that no one including HRC or Obama will do anything about that.)

    HRC in the White House isn’t going to change anything. Neither is McCain. It feels like the best way I could vote is to signal my disapproval of her garbage by not voting … of course, that presumes she’d care what anyone thinks, which she doesn’t.

  • So I’m assuming you all agree that Hillary can claim a win in North Carolina if she cuts Obama’s initial almost thirty point lead in North Carolina in half by election day.

    Well, I can’t speak for anyone else, but I claim that Clinton won in Pennsylvania and Obama will win in North Carolina and that neither matters, because this deal got closed in Wisconsin.

  • Obama picked up not only Ben Chandler of Kentucky, but also Robert Machacek of Iowa today. He’s now only 19 superdelegates behind Clinton.

  • For those of you (yet again) presenting Clinton as inevitable: a) didn’t you learn your lesson the first time and b) what alternate universe has math screwy enough make you think she has even the remotest chance of winning?

  • Javier A,

    Wait and see, Indiana is going to be a rout for Barak and the analysis of the polls in NC are going to show that he cannot make inroads in key demographics.

    And if Indiana isn’t a rout for Barak, will you stop with your demands for him (and us) to “give his full support to Hilary”? If not, why not?

    Let me put it even more bluntly, if Barak outright wins in Indiana, will you drop the calls for him to “wait 8 more years”?

  • Regarding the Chandler endorsement you say Eric Kleefeld noted the oddity: “Kentucky may well be [Obama’s] single worst state in the Union in both primary and general election polls, and thus it doesn’t seem like he’d be much help to them at the top of the ticket.”

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Rep. Chandler might be expected to know a little more about Kentucky politics than Kleefeld who, like his partner Greg Sargent, can’t post any positive news about Obama at TPM without throwing in some concern trolling.

  • No, Kleefeld’s right on this one, KRK. Clinton’s polling 60-something to Obama’s 30-something in the last several Kentucky polls. Kentucky’s going to win the shameful title of most pro-Clinton state for the most wrong reasons.

    That’s why it’s so great that Chandler and Yarmuth are doing the courageous thing by coming out for Obama.

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