The Pew Research Center’s latest report notes, “Trends in the opinions of America’s youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds.” If so, the winds are at Democrats’ backs, and will be for a quite a while. While young people shifted to the Democratic Party a bit in the 1990s, the bottom fell out for the GOP and younger voters during Bush’s presidency.
In 1992, Republicans enjoyed a slight edge in party identification among 18-29 year olds, 47% to 46%. Four years later, Democrats claimed a six-point edge, 50% to 44%. By the time of the 2000 election, Democrats’ lead had expanded slightly to eight points, 49% to 41%.
And voters under the age of 30 have been making a beeline from the Republican Party ever since. In 2004, Democrats’ lead among young voters’ party ID expanded to 11 points, 51% to 40%. And in 2008, the margin became a landslide — Democrats 58%, Republicans 33%.
What’s striking is not just the one-sided nature of young voters’ preferences, but the speed with which the change occurred. As recently as the 2002 midterms, voters aged 18 to 29 split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. In the 2006 midterms, they backed Democrats, 63% to 33%. Between 2004 and 2008, the party ID shift has more than doubled in Dems’ direction.
The change is also broadly based. From the Pew report:
In fact, the Democrats’ advantage among the young is now so broad-based that younger men as well as younger women favor the Democrats over the GOP — making their age category the only one in the electorate in which men are significantly more inclined to self-identify as Democrats rather than as Republicans.
While more women voters in every age group affiliate with the Democratic Party rather than the GOP, the gap is particularly striking among young women voters; more than twice as many women voters under age 30 identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party as favor the Republican Party (63% vs. 28%).
Talk about your emerging Democratic majority.
Now, I know that some of you are thinking that young people always tend to be liberal, and then get more conservative as they get older. But that really doesn’t apply here.
As Marc Ambinder explained:
When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected. Politically, today’s cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.
If Republicans look at these numbers, and don’t feel a sense of dread, they’re not looking closely enough. Eight years of Bush’s policies have helped drive an entire generation of voters into the Democratic Party.
I’d just add that this isn’t just about partisanship; it’s also ideological. I’m reminded of this poll of younger voters taken last year.
Young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage, according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. […]
Forty-four percent said they believed that same-sex couples should be permitted to get married, compared with 28 percent of the public at large. They are more likely than their elders to support the legalization of possession of small amounts of marijuana. […]
In the current poll, 62 percent said they would support a universal, government-sponsored national health care insurance program; 47 percent of the general public holds that view. And 30 percent said that “Americans should always welcome new immigrants,” while 24 percent of the general public holds that view.
The same poll noted that 28% of this age group describe themselves as “liberal,” eight points higher than the rest of the U.S. population.
In 1984, Reagan won 59% of the youth vote. Four years later, H.W. Bush won 52%. At this point, Republicans shouldn’t expect a majority anytime soon.
I remember reading some long-term forecasts not too long ago pointing to population shifts causing problems for Dems. People are moving away from “blue” strongholds (particularly in the Northeast), and relocating to “red” states in the South and West that will grow in electoral significance.
But counteracting this may very well be a generational shift that benefits Dems even more.
I’m tempted to send Bush a thank-you note.