Tuesday’s campaign round-up

May 6, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* It’s official; John and Elizabeth Edwards told People magazine that they will not endorse either of the remaining Democratic candidates before the nominee is chosen. The Edwardses will instead save their political capital “for their own causes — his, fighting poverty; hers, fighting for universal health care.”

* Barack Obama picked up two more superdelegates yesterday, getting the support of Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice Chairwoman Lauren Dugas Glover. Hillary Clinton also picked up a superdelegate yesterday — Democrats Abroad’s Theresa Morelli — though her support only counts as half a vote.

* In light of the latest numbers and endorsements, Eric Kleefeld notes that Clinton’s lead among superdelegates is down to 15.

* Just as the latest USAT/Gallup poll shows Clinton claiming the national lead among Dems, so too does a new poll from AP/Ipsos, which shows Clinton up by seven, 47% to 40%. In terms of the general election, Obama leads McCain by four, while Clinton leads McCain by five.

* National Right to Life has been doing anti-Obama robo-calls in Indiana this week, despite a state law prohibiting such calls. NRL is taking a risk, apparently hoping to beat the law in court if challenged.

* Did McCain vote for Bush in 2000? Arianna Huffington said yesterday that he privately conceded to her that he didn’t. McCain’s campaign denied the report.

* The Clinton campaign decided yesterday to change the magic number to win the nomination from 2,025 to 2,208.

* I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Clinton is going to do very well in the West Virginia primary next week. A Rasmussen poll released yesterday showed her ahead by 29 points, 56% to 27%.

* In the volatile Gallup Daily Tracking poll, Obama now leads Clinton by five, 50% to 45%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107014/Gallup-Daily-Democrats-Tied-Record-12th-Day.aspx

* Bloomberg: “More than 200 economists, including four Nobel prize winners, signed a letter rejecting proposals by presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and John McCain to offer a summertime gas-tax holiday.”

* Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), a top Clinton surrogate, told MSNBC this morning, “Thank God that we don’t have economists making necessarily public policy.”

* Fred Thompson has become a McCain campaign surrogate, and is making the conservative media rounds, talking to Instapundit and Sean Hannity.

* Could Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) actually be vulnerable for re-election this year? It sure looks like it.

* Technically, Ron Paul is still seeking the Republican presidential nomination.

* And Hillary Clinton delivered a funny Top 10 list on Letterman last night, listing the reasons she loves America. I was especially fond of #8: “Thanks to the Internet, I can order new pantsuits 24/7. There’s your pantsuit joke, Dave. Are you happy now?”

Barack Obama picked up two more superdelegates yesterday, getting the support of Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice Chairwoman Lauren Dugas Glover. Hillary Clinton also picked up a superdelegate yesterday — Democrats Abroad’s Theresa Morelli — though her support only counts as half a vote.

Obama also picked up the three Illinois add-ons yesterday, just as Clinton got New York’s four add-ons last week. I’m curious about why some bloggers don’t seem to be counting add-ons: they count just as other superdelegates do toward the total.

demconwatch.blogspot.com has the most accurate count for superdelegates, by the way, and is the only one that shows its work. AP, NBC, CNN, etc. all keep the names on their lists private, so mistakes get made (supers who have endorsed left off, other supers double-counted) and don’t get a chance to be corrected by readers/viewers who are paying attention.

  • I was shocked to see that Texas might not reelect Cornyn.

    Intrade shows that the Democrats have at least a 1 out of 3 chance of picking up the seat.
    Maine is about a 1 in 4 chance
    Oregon leans Republican

    Minnesota is barely Republican

    Alaska is leaning Democratic right now.
    Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico

    Louisiana is barely Democratic now

    Virginia is safe Democrat now

    That is a swing of 5 seats with a chance of getting 4 more.

    Wow

  • In the current debate about McCain’s unsavory associations (Hagee, Liddy, etc.) I haven’t seen mention of Richard Quinn, former editor of the neo-Confederate journal The Southern Partisan and McCain adviser in the 2000 campaign.

  • I’m not familiar with the story, but in 2006 people were also talking about Terry Nelson who is/was working for the 2008 McCain campaign and earlier was an “unindicted co-conspirator in Tom DeLay’s scheme to raise illegal corporate cash for Texas state legislature candidates, and the supervisor of the staffer who purposely jammed Democratic Party phones in New Hampshire in 2002”.

  • Crust:

    Richard Quinn was the name I was trying to remember. Yes, he’s the gentleman who sold Lincoln assassination t shirts. And not a peep about him anywhere in the mainstream media.

  • If today ends up being a wash like so many other hyped-up Tuesdays– Hillary gets Indiana and Obama gets NC– could the remaining Superdelegates PLEASE just come out already?

    I am an Obama supporter and think that the SDs should decide based on delegate count, however, at this point I don’t even care who gets it. Even for a political junkie I’m feeling bloated from the excess. We need some kind of resolution and to turn our focus on McCain.

  • Anecdotal Evidence – gathered after casting my ballot this morning in a heavily white precinct in Indianapolis, Indiana.

    After voting this morning, I stood outside & talked to campaign workers & persons leaving after voting. Talked to about 25 persons who were willing to discuss their political party and who they voted for.

    9 – 10 were democrats & split their votes about evenly between Hillary & Obama.
    15 – 16 were normally republicans. 6 voted republican for McCain. The other 9 or 10 republicans voted 6 for Obama – mostly because they are sick of the Bush party and hope that Obama can actually make a difference. The rest admitted that they voted for Hillary as a part of ‘Operation Chaos’.

    This admittedly unscientific ‘exit polling’ in a heavily republican precinct showed that the efforts by Rush Limbaugh & his clones at WIBC (the local rethugnican hate talk radio station) appeared to be having an impact.

    Couple weeks ago, I visited Viet Nam veteran friends in the western part of Indiana. Most surprising comment heard was “McCain is crazy. Guess I’ll have to vote for the nigger this fall.” When the racists (all historically republican straight party voters) decide that a black man is preferable to McCrazy, maybe our country has a chance!

  • I don’t understand why Obama surrogates keep saying Hillary needs to win all remaining contests by 67%-33%.

  • zoe #7 – I agree 100%. I can’t stand this stuff anymore, haven’t been able to for some time now. If I hear “What does Hillary have to do to win in xyz,” or “How much has Rev. Wright hurt Obama among white, male high school dropouts in Cook and Camel counties between the ages of 37 and 65,” I’ll scream. I started out leaning toward Hillary.

    But I just don’t give a damn anymore. Get this thing over with! Since Obama is ahead, and can’t possibly be overtaken, let’s all agree that he’s the guy, forget the Hillary bashing, and start the campaign against John McCain.

  • I’m curious about why some bloggers don’t seem to be counting add-ons: they count just as other superdelegates do toward the total.

    Actually my understanding is that add-ons are closer to being pledged delegates than superdelegates. That is, they are chosen by the state conventions, and are selected as individuals precisely because they support a given candidate. That’s how individual pledged delegates are selected, i.e. they are selected to run for the position by the campaigns, who screen them to ensure they are enthusiastic supporters. Typically, all or most of the add-ons go to the candidate who won the state since that candidate has more supporters at the convention.

    In contrast, the supers are automatically made delegates by virtue of their day job — elected official or DNC official, and they make their own choices who to support.

    Though I’m no expert on this stuff, so I’d be happy to hear any corrections!

  • I confess I’m a teensy bit disappointed by the Edwards’ decision to protect their personal influence with both candidates rather than make a decision based on who they think would be the better president. The nomination needs to get decided one way or the other for the good of the party and the nation, and this really isn’t helping.

    Once the outcome is no longer in doubt I imagine they’ll jump in to support whoever the nominee is, but it still seems a bit self-serving.

    Oh, well.

  • I think the Edwardses recognize that they missed their chance to have any influence, and an endorsement now would just make that obvious.

    Plus I think that they (or for sure Elizabeth) favor Hillary, but they know she’s toast so don’t want to endorse the loser.

  • The Clinton campaign decided yesterday to change the magic number to win the nomination from 2,025 to 2,208.

    Proof positive that the only party the Clintons support is the Clinton Party. They are willing to destroy the party for their goddamned self-entitled egos.

    Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), a top Clinton surrogate, told MSNBC this morning, “Thank God that we don’t have economists making necessarily public policy.”

    Nice to see that the Clinton Party, along with their allies in the Republican Party, reject “the reality-based community.”

  • I confess I’m a teensy bit disappointed by the Edwards’ decision… -Curmudgeon

    I’d love to be disappointed, but frankly, it’s exactly the move I expected. I honestly still don’t even understand why people really care that much what they say. A one term senator with two failed presidential bids who holds no current office and isn’t even a superdelegate? Shrug.

  • My hunch about the Edwards’ is that John favored Obama, Elizabeth favored Clinton and rather than have their disagreement be yet another distraction in an election that needs another distraction like it needs another Bush Administration, they decided to keep their lips zipped. And I have zero problem with that.

  • I read this over at Driftglass yesterday, and he is one of the most brilliant progressive bloggers out there:

    “It’s the economy, stupid!”- Bill Clinton 1992

    “The economists are stupid!” Hillary Clinton 2008

    And I’d add:

    ” First let’s kill all the economists!” – HRC Campaign and surrogates 2008 (And McCain’s too.)

  • * Bloomberg: “More than 200 economists, including four Nobel prize winners, signed a letter rejecting proposals by presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and John McCain to offer a summertime gas-tax holiday.”

    As if being a Nobel prize winner was some sort of recommendation, not proof-positive of elitism…

  • I’m jumping for joy that my Senator, John Cornyn, is finally about to be ousted!!!! Every time I write to him I get the Bush line back over his signature. It almost makes me want to stroke out, I get so angry. I never thought my fellow Texans would see the light. Here’s hoping…

  • Did Obama’s camp fund “demons for Hillary”, new movie about Hillary Clinton. Check it out on demonsforhillary.com or youtube.com/demonsforhillary

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