Periodically over the last several months, the notion of an Obama-Clinton — or a Clinton-Obama — Democratic ticket takes center stage. The candidates then dismiss the talk, the issue fades away, only to come storming back for one reason or another.
About two months ago, this was all the rage, when Clinton began publicly speculating about her willingness to consider Obama for her ticket, which seemed to annoy Obama more than a little. Now that the race for the nomination seems to be nearly complete, the notion of an Obama-Clinton pairing is once again on the front burner.
There’s no shortage of opinions on the subject out there — TNR has been running a series this week with some sharp speculative commentaries — but as for me, I not only don’t think it’s going to happen, I’m not even sure if it should.
Clinton has some tremendous assets and very strong appeal to a lot of voters. That said, I’m not sure her best attributes are unique to her. Clinton has done well with working-class whites, but I don’t doubt there are other good Dems who could do just as well, if not better. Clinton has some solid policy expertise, but there are others who are just as wonky, if not more so. Clinton has very strong appeal among women voters, but there are likely others whose appeal among women could be just as strong. Clinton is perceived as credible on foreign policy and national security, but I’m confident there are other Dems who are just as credible, if not more so.
She could conceivably help in New York, though Obama would be favored to win the state anyway. Her appeal would probably be strongest in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states, but Obama is poised to do well there regardless.
But the Obama-Clinton really starts to fall apart when considering the intangibles.
Michael Tomasky had a compelling piece on the subject.
…Substantively, something tells me that Vice President Clinton couldn’t work very well with President Obama. She’d always be thinking, “Well, I’d have done it this way.” […]
One problem is that I think a Clinton choice would be aimed solely at Democrats. It would be popular among them, but what about non-Democrats? Let’s note something that’s been little remarked upon so far this season. People keep talking about the stunning turnout in these primaries, and, for primaries, this has surely been the case. About 33 million people have voted.
But how many people voted in the last general election? Around 122 million. With interest seeming higher this year, and if Obama can indeed register many new voters, there is every reason to think that 100 million more people will vote on November 4 than have voted cumulatively over the last 18 weeks. Hillary on the ticket would clearly go down well among a large majority of the 33 million who’ve voted. But what about the other 100 million? How would putting Hillary Clinton on the ticket strike them?
It would depend of course on who they are. She has performed reasonably well among independents, especially more recently, so maybe this is a false alarm. But I suspect that by and large, her popularity is limited to Democrats. Which means I’m not sure she’d help in the traditional way vice presidential candidates are supposed to help. And it’s possible she could even hurt.
I was also nodding a lot while reading Kevin Drum’s take.
A strong vice president is one thing, but if you choose Hillary as a running mate you get the whole Clinton family in the bargain, and having Bill Clinton as a de facto part of the White House staff just smells like big trouble. That aside, the bigger issue is that picking Hillary would be a sign of weakness from Obama, and a completely unnecessary one. Obama certainly ought to reach out to Hillary once the primaries are over, but he can win in November on his own, and there are plenty of good, solid VP choices out there that would nonetheless make it crystal clear that an Obama White House would be an Obama White House.
Quite right. Obama is poised to usher in a new political era. Why turn back to the last one when picking a running mate?
To help bring the party back together again, Obama will need to prove to Clinton’s most loyal fans that he’s ready to earn their support and trust. That may mean picking a running mate who endorsed Clinton (Gov. Strickland comes to mind). But it doesn’t necessarily mean picking Clinton herself.
I can imagine Clinton working with Obama as a key ally in the Senate. I have a much harder time imagining these two cooperating, with a former president in the wings, in running the executive branch.
Update: Ted Kennedy isn’t fond of the idea: “Obama should choose a running mate who ‘is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people,’ Kennedy said. ‘If we had real leadership — as we do with Barack Obama — in the No. 2 spot as well, it’d be enormously helpful.'” Ouch.