Tuesday’s campaign round-up

May 13, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* I’ve been trying to keep up with superdelegate announcements over the last 24 hours, and if my count is right, Obama has picked up seven, including this morning’s endorsements (Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, former governor and DNC Chair Roy Romer of Colorado, Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans, Anita Bonds of the District of Columbia, Keith Roark of Idaho, and Dolly Strazar of Hawaii). I haven’t seen any new superdelegates for Clinton, but if I missed them, let me know.

* Late last week, ABC and the NYT said Obama had taken the lead among superdelegates based on their counts. Yesterday, CBS, NBC, the AP, and the Politico all came to the same conclusion.

* The AP said if the current superdelegate pace keeps up, Obama may reach the 2,025 finish line by June 3 — “even if he loses half of the remaining six contests.”

* In Maryland, one of Clinton’s pledged delegates switched to Obama yesterday. (I continue to believe, by the way, that pledged delegates shouldn’t do this, barring extraordinary circumstances.)

* Obama announced his first campaign stops in Florida and Michigan yesterday. “It will be Obama’s first time in either state since signing a pledge nine months ago not to campaign in the two states that violated national party rules with early primaries. Obama will have to build relationships in the two critical general election battlegrounds if he wins the Democratic nomination.”

* The Clinton campaign seems to really be ramping up expectations for today’s West Virginia primary. Bill Clinton suggested the other day that HRC could win with 80% support. Yesterday, State Senate Majority Leader Harry Truman Chafin went further, saying 90% is within Clinton’s reach. (Aren’t campaigns supposed to lower expectations before a big win?)

* With a week to go before the Oregon primary, Obama appears to be in pretty good shape. SurveyUSA shows him leading Clinton by 11 (54% to 43%), while the Portland Tribune has him up by 20 (55% to 35%).

* Looking at Obama’s short-term travel schedule, he certainly looks to be moving into a general-election mode.

* I suspect talk of Obama struggling among Jewish voters is overstated, but the campaign is nevertheless taking the issue seriously: “Faced with doubts about his support for Israel and American Jews, Senator Barack Obama has stepped up his efforts to reach out to the Jewish community over the past month, giving speeches and granting interviews to confront questions about the militant Palestinian group Hamas and his commitment to Jewish causes and values.”

* AFSCME, which has been backing Clinton enthusiastically, apparently hasn’t given up on her long-shot chances at the Democratic nomination. The union announced yesterday it is committing “real money” to independent expenditures on Clinton’s behalf in the remaining primaries.

* Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) laughed off the possibility of running on the Democratic ticket with Obama, but he didn’t necessarily rule it out. Asked if he’d consider running with Obama, Hagel told CNN, “I’m going to try and find some honest work,” he said, adding that “If [Obama] asks, I’ll let you know.”

* U.S. News reports that Mike Huckabee is high on the McCain short list of running mates.

* Carville may be warming up to Obama after all.

Carville can go jump in a lake. The prick has no class, and getting his support would be like gaining the floatation of an anvil.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/carville-if-hillary-gave_n_100038.html

  • CB:

    Why shouldn’t a superdelegate change their mind?

    I can’t remember who said it but “I change my mind when the facts change. What do you do?”

  • Of course Snakehead is warming up to Obama cause he’s figured out the math. I doubt it’s a case of liking Obama but rather recognizing the political realities and knowing where the money is.

  • Maybe for once they are trying to help Obama by raising expectations to an unreachable level in WV. Maybe the Clintons realize the race is over, and Obama’s the nominee. If that’s the case, maybe they are trying to redeem themselves in the eyes of the rest of the Dem party which would be fantastic.

  • “I haven’t seen any new superdelegates for Clinton, but if I missed them, let me know.”

    all of them, do you understand? all of them. we’re not going to stop trashing obama until we have all the superdelegates!

    love,
    the clinton team

  • neil wilson (#2),

    Re-read what CB wrote: * In Maryland, one of Clinton’s pledged delegates switched to Obama yesterday. (I continue to believe, by the way, that pledged delegates shouldn’t do this, barring extraordinary circumstances.)

    I too want Obama to win, but I don’t think pledged dels switching sides is a good idea. It could really build up resentment.

  • darn! messed up the formatting tags…oh well…the point still stands

  • This is supposedly the second change of heart for that pledged delegate. He seems to have a fairly flexible understanding of what his role in all this is.

  • neil #2 – re-read that. CB was talking about a pledged delegate, not a superdelegate.

    Former Dan #3 – the most likely explanation is that Carville is a hardcore Democrat. I don’t think he has ever said anything other than that he would support the nominee. The quote over on PoliticalWire is, essentially, that he still prefers Clinton, thinks Obama likely becomes the nominee, and when that happens he’ll write Obama a check. I wouldn’t expect anything else from a serial Democratic campaign staffer, even one who is an ass.

  • mellowjohn #5: we’re not going to stop trashing obama

    I know your post was largely in jest, but it seems to me that Clinton has dialed back a lot since NC/Indy. Has anyone seen the kind of negative attacks on Obama that she was making prior to that? It seems she has focues much more on her affirmative case, with a little Repub bashing thrown in (more would be better), but that she is now laying off Obama.

    If that is true, it would be nice to see some reciprocation from the Obama supporters: this is what you said Clinton should do, what many of you said you would be ok with, so the piling on seems a bit counterproductive. Unless I and much of the media) am missing continued attacks on Obama. At this point is actually helps for her to stay in through WV and KY so Obama doesn’t lose to a withdrawn candidate, as long as she isn’t doing any harm to him.

  • I know the tv talking heads are going full steam ahead on the Chuck Hagel speculation, but I don’t see it happening. Aside from his stand oon the Iraq war Hagel is very conservative. Alot of Democrats (Party officials and voters) would be put off by a Republican running mate. I think Obama has a number of good choice. He doesn’t need to resort to what essentially would be “stunt casting.”

  • Hagee apologizes for calling Catholics whores, McCain throws Hagee under the bus, and then babbles incoherently about how he’s against anyone who is ever against anything…

    McCain addressed the issue in April during an appearance on ABC’s This Week. “Any comments that he made about the Catholic Church I strongly condemn, of course,” McCain said.

    “So was it a mistake to solicit and accept his endorsement?” asked host George Stephanopoulos.

    “Oh, probably, sure. But I admire and respect Dr. Hagee’s leadership of the — of his church,” McCain said, later adding: “I’m glad to have his endorsement. I condemn remarks that are, in any way, viewed as anti-anything. “

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/05/13/mccain-backer-john-hagee-apologizes-to-catholics/?mod=WSJBlog

  • Mark,
    Wasn’t the whole “hard-working Americans, white Americans” thing a day or two after NC/IN?

  • JRD –

    It was, but I think that was the last example – and even that was not an attack on Obama so much as a really foolishly worded parsing of the results to try and spin her affirmative case as a good candidate. I believe it was before she started having low-key meetings with Supers and retrenched with her staff and advisors. Starting with the infamous Power Point and those SD meetings, however, she seems to have been pretty innocuous. One cant really even say she is costing Obama money, since his scheduling now just ignores her.

  • Mark Pencil is largely right in all his post above (#10) , and for the case of Mr. Pencil and other intelligent folks of similar belief, I fully agree and hereby pledge to do so.

    That doesn’t mean that my low pain threshold for idiocy gets changed. But that’s non-partisan (though it shows up more with Republicans and Hillarybots and Paulies and such, which have a larger percentage of idiots in their numbers than one finds in the general population).

  • Hasn’t Bill been going on and on in WV about how Obama thinks that he’s better than them and doesn’t care about them? I don’t have any cites handy, but I thought I had seen some reports of him continuing to be a douche in the past week.

    Anyone?

  • wouldn’t surprise me ResumeMan. at this point Bill seems to want back in the WH more desparately than Hillary.

  • This is supposedly the second change of heart for that pledged delegate. He seems to have a fairly flexible understanding of what his role in all this is.

    Yes, and he also was appointed to his at-large position through consultation with the Clinton campaign, which is not the usual order of things with pledged delegates.

    Having said that, and recognizing that Clinton’s claim that pledged delegates are fair game has opened her up to this being used against her, pledged delegates switching sides is not within the normal expectations of how pledged delegates work, and it should be strongly discouraged by both camps. I’m disappointed that David Plouffe took a fairly neutral stance on this this morning, rather than speaking out against it.

  • In Johnson’s case I’d argue that Clinton’s “Hard Working White Americans” drivel forced his hand (assuming he wasn’t just pissed off). Anyone planning to run against him 2009 would have bludgeoned him with that quote.

  • In Maryland, one of Clinton’s pledged delegates switched to Obama yesterday. (I continue to believe, by the way, that pledged delegates shouldn’t do this, barring extraordinary circumstances.)

    I agree with you about not switching. This may be Hillary’s Pandora’s Box.

  • Racer X said:

    “Carville can go jump in a lake. The prick has no class, and getting his support would be like gaining the floatation of an anvil.”

    I wish that I had the eloquence of Racer X!

    When Carville jumps into that lake, let’s hope that he takes his treasonous bitch of a wife with him. Carville’s wife was part of the White House group put together to ‘market’ the war on Iraq.

  • “In Maryland, one of Clinton’s pledged delegates switched to Obama yesterday. (I continue to believe, by the way, that pledged delegates shouldn’t do this, barring extraordinary circumstances.)”

    I agree with CB. But, given that Clinton encouraged this (in reverse, of course), she’ in no position to complain.

  • “Oh, probably, sure. But I admire and respect Dr. Hagee’s leadership of the — of his church,” McCain said, later adding: “I’m glad to have his endorsement. I condemn remarks that are, in any way, viewed as anti-anything. “

    Does that mean he takes back his bs about gays in the military being an intolerable risk?

    Yeah, I know.

  • mark pencil…

    whaddaya mean — “largely in jest?” it was entirely in jest.

  • Maria @ #20, I just have to add a comment that I heard from a friend back in January:

    “Bill Clinton isn’t satisfied to be the first black president. Now he wants to be the first female president, too.”

  • Good thing there’s still all the down ticket races or Johnson would have me thinking my vote doesn’t matter.

    I’m for Obama, but this is a DANGEROUS example he’s setting.

    In case anyone wondered how Democrats would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory…
    THIS may be a good place to point to as to where it all started… where party leaders decided what was best for the rest of us. Maybe the GOP is right to call us pinko socialists? Johnson’s usurping of popular will for his personal whim would be right at home back in the USS back in the USS back in the USSR.

  • Isn’t Florida & Michigan a part of this country? The amount of delegates needed to win the nominee is not 2025…That amount excludes Fl & MI…

    Since their votes & delegates are not being counted I guess they are no longer a part of the United States.

  • ow, Lois! ow! ow!

    even if FL and MI count, in any reasonably divided way, the math is still terrible for Clinton – let me be more blunt, given the recent Superdelegate developments. She cant win.

    but let me ask this: should MI and FL be able to violate the party rules with impunity? How did they not bring this on themselves? Or are they somehow special and better than the rest of the “parts of this country” who followed the rules just fine?

  • but let me ask this: should MI and FL be able to violate the party rules with impunity?

    And what message would this send to the other states for future primary seasons?

  • I’m guessing old Lois was just fine with the 2,025 delegate bar when Hillary Clinton was fine with the 2,025 delegate bar (and, along with her surrogates, said so over and over), which was, um, up until a couple of weeks ago.

    Without their candidate to tell them which way the goalposts are traveling, how would some of these Clinton cheerleaders know what to be outraged about next? And (lowering voice to confidential whisper) can we support a candidate with such flip-flopping supporters? The Dems need more than the unelite, unblack and totally suggestible demographics to win in November, you know. Yet Clinton arrogantly turns her Regular Jane back on the voters who possess objective standards and memories of more than 10 minutes’ duration. Is this any way to build a winning coalition?

    And doubtful at 32 (and always), you crack me up.

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