The LA Times’ Mark Barabak had a news analysis piece today that seems completely right, but terribly odd.
As Iraq descends into chaos, President Bush is facing a political reality that once seemed implausible, one in which setbacks on the defense and foreign policy front are crowding out good economic news at home.
The sights and sounds emanating from Iraq in the last few days have begun to echo those of the Vietnam era, as the body count grows and generals talk of a need to send more U.S. troops to fight an increasingly fierce guerrilla war.
It is too soon to say what consequence this might have in the presidential race. Elections in November are rarely decided by events that take place in April. And the country is so polarized, with Republicans dug in for Bush and Democrats bitterly opposed, that a few days of bad news are not likely to change the calculation much.
But if the death toll mounts and Iraq spins utterly out of control, even Bush supporters concede his reelection prospects could be seriously jeopardized, regardless of how strongly the economy is performing this fall.
So, put another way, a president with the worst employment record in 70 years, with the largest budget deficits in the history of the world, the largest trade deficit in U.S. history, and a stock market that is still lower now than when he took office has to hope that the economy is going to carry him across the finish line.
These sure are strange times.