Wednesday’s campaign round-up

May 21, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Interesting tidbit from Oregon — Greg Sargent noted that Obama beat Clinton among working-class whites by a healthy margin, despite the fact that these are the same voters Obama is supposed to be struggling with. It suggests the results from Kentucky and West Virginia point to a unique regional phenomenon.

* There’s been a little movement on the superdelegate front over the last 24 hours. Yesterday, Clinton picked up the support of Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley. Today, each Dem picked up one — Connecticut Rep. Courtney endorsed Obama and Ohio superdelegate Craig Bashein backed Clinton. Obama also picked up an add-on delegate in Ohio this morning.

* The campaigns have announced their April fundraising numbers, and not surprisingly, the Dems continue to raise far more than McCain. Obama continued to lead the way, taking in $31 million for the month. About 93% of contributions were $100 or less, suggesting he’ll be able to return to these donors again and again as the campaign continues through the fall. Clinton, meanwhile, raised $22 million, a figure that does not include personal loans or extensive campaign debts. McCain finished behind both, collecting $18 million in April, which happens to be his best month to date.

* Despite losing the Pennsylvania primary by nine points last month, Obama leads McCain in a SurveyUSA general election poll, 48% to 40%. The poll also tested various running mates, and found Obama leading McCain in most hypothetical scenarios.

* Reuters: “Democrat Barack Obama has opened an 8-point national lead on Republican John McCain as the U.S. presidential rivals turn their focus to a general election race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.”

* I find it curious that so many Clinton voters believe Clinton is launching unfair attacks against Obama.

* Oregon voters were unmoved by the “gas-tax holiday” idea.

* In a closely watched primary fight yesterday in Oregon, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who enjoyed the support of the Democratic establishment, narrowly beat back a challenge from Steve Novick. Merkley will face vulnerable incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) in November.

* In other Democratic Senate primary news, health care executive Bruce Lunsford easily won the right to take on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in November, winning a seven-way primary with 51% support.

* On a related note, it’s a partisan poll to be taken with a grain of salt, but nevertheless, a DSCC survey shows former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) leading Republican incumbent Roger Wicker by eight points. That strikes me as hard to believe, but even if the numbers are exaggerated, this race wasn’t supposed to be competitive. If Musgrove has a legitimate shot, Republicans really are facing a very long year.

Clinton, meanwhile, raised $22 million

Of which 10 million was in one day (after PA).

  • I find it curious that so many Clinton voters believe Clinton is launching unfair attacks against Obama.

    I’m not at all surprised. These are elite Kentuckians, after all. And did I mention most of them are men?

  • Interesting tidbit from Oregon — Greg Sargent noted that Obama beat Clinton among working-class whites by a healthy margin, despite the fact that these are the same voters Obama is supposed to be struggling with. It suggests the results from Kentucky and West Virginia point to a unique regional phenomenon.

    It’s called Appalachia. Never underestimate the moron stupidity of the Scoth-Irish, who have voted against their own interests here for more than 200 years and have voted against their own interests in Ireland for more than 300 years, ever since James VI of Scotland sent the Lowland Scots to Irelance to protect the Highland Scots when he went to England to become James I. And they embraced the king who screwed them, and every one ever since. (And I say that as a McKelvey)

    Northern Appalachia – PA and OH – will come to their senses, as is seen in polls already, but southern Appalachia lost the IQ race long ago when the last of the smart ones got the hell out of there.

  • >>> RE: * Oregon voters were unmoved by the “gas-tax holiday” idea.

    At the Island Press blog, Terry Tamminen (policy consultant and adviser to the Governor of California, Canadian Premiers, and other state leaders on climate and energy policy) has some interesting items to say about the proposed “gas tax holiday,” why higher gas/oil prices are not necessarily bad and why we can reign in greenhouse gases by leaving things as they are: http://www.islandpress.org/blog/index.php

  • Is Obama’s weak support among white males an Appalachian regional phenomenon, or does the problem include white males in the Deep South as well? Can anyone point me towards an analysis of that question?

    I read recently that white voters in Mississippi favor McCain over Obama by an 80-20 margin. That is astonishing until you consider that the Bush margin among white voters over Kerry was 85-15.

  • I wish there was more analysis of the Republican side of the primary scene. Why is participation so low? Things that I would assume would mute turnout include:

    1. recognition that the candidate has already been chosen
    2. belief that your vote won’t change the result
    3. disinterest
    4. actual lack of interest in the candidates
    5. no state-wide or local primaries or special elections

    So in Kentucky Barack Obama got more votes than McCain, in almost every county, not just statewide. In addition, Clinton won these same counties with a larger percentage of the vote than McCain. There were still a few counties where McCain got more votes than even Hillary.

    So what would be interesting are charts/maps which show differentials between candidates and differentials between average and local results. These types of charts/maps would more effectively highlight local differences. I’ve seen one chart on this for county raw vote between Obama and Clinton.

  • Oregon voters were unmoved by the “gas-tax holiday” idea.

    If they really believed the “gas-tax holiday” was a good idea, Clinton or McCain would have introduced a bill in the Senate in time for it to be voted on before Memorial Day.

    Why haven’t I seen anyone (other than on this site) point out that since neither of them has introduced a bill, they’re both full of crap?

  • Why haven’t I seen anyone (other than on this site) point out that since neither of them has introduced a bill, they’re both full of crap?

    And how many Republicans are backing McBush’s stupid idea? Are there any? If he can’t get his own people to back his ideas, then how does he plan to govern?

  • Okie [#5]: Is Obama’s weak support among white males an Appalachian regional phenomenon, or does the problem include white males in the Deep South as well? Can anyone point me towards an analysis of that question?

    I know nothing of the analysis, but my gut feeling is that the Deep South’s white men will be at least partially evened out somewhat, given the larger black populations there.

    Then again, the South almost always goes Republican now. It’s the kind of thing that often makes me wish the South had won.

  • Why haven’t I seen anyone (other than on this site) point out that since neither of them has introduced a bill, they’re both full of crap?

    So much crap, so little time…

  • With all the speculation about what consolation prize Hillary will get out of all this, the obvious answer appears to be President of Appalachia. And you know, I’m actually fine with that.

  • The poll also tested various running mates, and found Obama leading McCain in most hypothetical scenarios.

    The poll scenarios range from Obama losing to McCain by 3 to winning over McCain by 17.
    That suggests that the choice for Vice President is more important than the Presidential candidates themselves, which is ridiculous.

  • My 20+ years living in Kentucky taught me that folks there are…special. Country values are great and all, but when I was dating a black woman and wanted to bring her home to visit, my mother warned me not to “take her outside” because the Klan was so prevalent in that area of the state. I mean, have you ever looked at the lyrics of the state song, “My Old Kentucky Home”? “Oh, the sun shines bright on my Old Kentucky Home/Tis summer, the Darkies are gay” So really…can a state with a song that refers to black folks as “darkies” (and is home to the country’s only “Creationist Museum”) really be expected to support Obama?

    The fact that Clinton would do well in Kentucky makes me wanna RUN RUN RUN and donate to Obama. Believe me, one thing you never in your life want to hear are the words “As Kentucky goes, so goes the nation.” Aiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigggggggghhhhhhhhhh!!!

  • The poll scenarios range from Obama losing to McCain by 3 to winning over McCain by 17.
    That suggests that the choice for Vice President is more important than the Presidential candidates themselves, which is ridiculous.

    Nah, as somebody or other pointed out, it probably has more to do with the fact that most people don’t now know who Sebelius or Pawlenty are.

  • * I find it curious that so many Clinton voters believe Clinton is launching unfair attacks against Obama.

    That’s because many Clinton supporters are proud of this. They see Clinton as a fighter and believe that whatever she does is justified because she has a D after her name. If she had an R after her name, then everything she does would be evil rather than justified political acts.

  • Hillary seems to be taking up the insider stance.. acting more like George every day .. next she will be asking the courts to rule for her.

  • Grumpy: That’s the polite name for it.

    Exactly.
    Why you holding back your fire on this Carpetbagger?
    Call a spade a spade…
    It is KKKentucky.
    It is racism. Period.

  • Hillary seems to be taking up the insider stance.. acting more like George every day .. next she will be asking the courts to rule for her.

    Maybe, but her current stance — revealed in a speech in Boca today — is to liken her campaign to Al Gore’s in 2000, and suggest that Obama is the reincarnation of Bush, winning the election against the will of the voters.

    (Please note: Will of the voters does not apply to Iowa, Nevada, Vermont, and other caucus states.)

  • Why are states, like West Virginia voting for anyone dedicated to kill the coal industry in the name of fighting Global Warming?

  • RonChusid,

    They see Clinton as a fighter and believe that whatever she does is justified because she has a D after her name.

    I think it more likely that they believe whatever she does is justified because of the sexist attacks on her throughout this campaign. Apparently, the fact that the sexism is rarely (if ever) from the Obama campaign is irrelevant to them.

  • The liberal media has been omitted to report on the campaign news when it is negative towards Obama, which probably explains his win in OR. If women and the working class knew about Obama’s sexist, racist and bigoted remarks, the result would have been reversed.

    Obama supporters and the media are doing their best to try and “spin” the situation to convince Clinton supporters to switch to Obama if he gets the nomination. Won’t work.

    Polls show that Clinton would beat McCain by 9%.
    Obama would lose to McCain by 4%. And that was before Obama’s sexist Detroit remark, and being caught lying about taking big oil money.

    Obama is not electable.

    If the primaries were all held today, knowning what we now know about Obama, he would be creamed.

    Obama has not won the vital swing states… he has only won in states where a large black population has, in what appears to be a very racist movement, voted entiredly for him giving him a slim margin of victory, or in states that will go gop in Nov, and a few very liberal states that will go Dem no matter what in Nov.

    Clinton has the middle ground. She has creamed Obama in the swing states. She will pick up indpendants and gop votes.

    Obama is radical left. Independants will figure that out..and not vote for him.
    Obama is sexist… women will figure that out and not vote for him.
    Obama is a bigot.. the workding class has that figured out and will not vote for him.
    Obama is a racist…non racists americans won’t vote for Obama.

    All Obama has are the radical left wing of the Dem party, the black vote, and the naive dem youth vote and they may clue in before Nov.

    Besides…

    Obama is pro free trade
    Obama is pro North American integration
    Obama is pro amnesty
    Obama is pro replacing the dollar with the Amero
    Obama is pro the dissolution of the USA into a North American Union
    Obama is pro outsourcing USA jobs
    Obama is pro reducing Americans wages with illegal labor.
    Obama is pro making the USA Spanish speaking

    Obama is sexist. Check the youtube video
    Obama is sexist. Check the NH debate
    Obama is sexist. Check Geraldine Ferraro

    Obama is racist. Check rev Wrigt
    Obama is racist. Check his books
    Obama is racist. Check his wife’s thesis

    Obama is a bigot. He snears at the working class
    Obama is a bigot. He snears at gun owners
    Obams is a bigot. He snears at people with religion
    Obama is a bigot. He snears at people who are pro legal immigratiton but anti illegal immigration.
    Obama is a bigot. He snears at people who are anti free trade that only benefits the rich.

    Obama has split the Dem Party with his bigoted, sexist, racist remarks.

    Obama has no legislative accomplishments.

    Obama only voted about 50% of the time..he was absent or voted no decision the rest of the time.

    Obama is a liar. He lied about his Nafta intentions
    Obama is a liar. He lied about taking big oil money
    Obama is a liar. He lied about campaigning in FL

    Obama is an arrogant snot. If nominated, a large segment of the Dem Party will either vote republican, or write in a vote, or sit out the election. No way they will vote for the bigoted, racist, sexist Obama.

    The latest Obama farce? On May 19, 2008 he tells people in OR that Iran has never been a threat to the USA. On May 20, 2008 in Montana he tells people that he had always contended that Iran is a serious threat to the USA.

    Obama is a liar, a con man.. a snake oil salesman.

    Obama is not electable.

  • The fact is… Clinton could and probably will win the nomination.

    Clinton is way ahead in the popular vote.
    Clinton has won the swing states
    Clinton has the middle ground, Obama is loony toones left
    Clinton is not sexist and has not made sexist remarks. Obama has.
    Clinton is not a racist and has not shown a racist attidude.Obama has.
    Clinton is not a bigot. She is equalitarian in the true big tent dem tradition. Obama is a snot nose elitist.
    Clinton is for the middle class and the working class and the poor. Obama is for the rich.
    Clinton will receive a good share of the independant and gop vote. Obama will lose a good share of the Dem vote (the women and working class he hates so), and few independants are going to vote for that racist, and forget the gop…

    Repubs want Obama to win. They will demolish him in the general election.

    Obama is a con man. He is selling an “ideal nation” vision… of racial harmony etc. But the reality is… the man is racist, bigoted, sexist, elitist.

  • The ignorant comments made by Bettybb is one of the many reasons I have stopped supporting Hillary for president. Hillary’s campaign has chosen to focus its appeals to this lowest common denominator of voters, distorting and exaggerating facts as well as simply making them up–all in an effort to win at any cost. Although I still believe Hillary has some good ideas for the country, I no longer believe she has the integrity it takes to be president, and heaven knows we’ve been long enough without integrity in the White House.

  • i wish OBAMA camp would stop saying that we as in the working class american wILL VOTE for him if hillary dont get in THERE IS NO WAY WE WILL SUPPORT OBAMA. we said some of us will go rep. and vote for mccain and yes some will not vote at all WE DONT LIKE HIM DONT TRUST HIM AND FOR HIS WIFE SHE IS THE SAME , and for my party i think if you let him in our white house you will lose there is thous. of us that will not vote and most likely will go rep.thank you linda murphy pa

  • First, the working class does not blog from their computers at work/home in the numbers of the affluent Dems, so such opinions may not be represented in appropriate number on here. I can say that, I grew up in an industrial suburb of Cleveland, OH. Second, Obama’s made his case, and outspent Hillary 8:1 in RI, 4:1 in Ohio, 3:1 in TX, etc. They know what he’s selling and they’re not buying. Unforunately, these voters are the key to OH, PA, MI and NJ, states we must win! Purists need to think pragmatically. Do we want to win or lose in Nov? Race and gender aside, it’s the same concilliatory tone that attracts people to him that turns off tough working class Regan Democrats and Catholics. Now I’m hearing Jews are not on board (hello, S. Florida!!!) Hillary has a broader base of support in the states we must win to turn the White House blue. Let’s be wise to put up a winner.

  • I really hope and pray that Hillary Clinton will hurry up and get out of this race. Yesterday in Florida it was really appalling what she was telling her supporters about how every vote should count, and so on and so on… She is really dividing the party with these false statements. She understood the consequences of Florida and Michigan when this race began. How can she do this to the American people. If the popular person could win (which she does not have the votes to claim this), Al Gore would be ending his second term. Some one PLEASE tell her to go away!!!!!

  • Hey, Cleaver!

    As a native West Virginian of Scots descent, allow me to invite you to kiss my posterior.

    Lowland Scots protected Highlanders in Ulster? As effective as sending the Glee Club to a bar brawl to bail out the football team.

    Wait until I turn you in to the Hillbilly American Anti-Defamation Committee.

    Oh wait, we don’t have one.

    Keep taking the cheap shots, brave boy. Then every four years ask yourselves why folks in Appalachia are alienated from the effete elitist twits who scorn us.

  • Musgrove does pose a real threat in Mississippi. He is fairly popular and he won two state-wide races as Lt. Governor and Governor. The environment has changed in Miss. much like the rest of the nation and I expect a tough race.

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