By most counts, Barack Obama is about 46 delegates shy of the threshold needed for the Democratic presidential nomination. After tomorrow’s contests in Montana and South Dakota, he’ll probably be around 20 or so delegates shy of the magic number. So, if 20 or so superdelegates endorse Obama once the final primaries are complete, he’ll have secured the party’s nomination and the fighting will finally be over. There won’t be any need to push the matter all the way to the convention; it’ll be over.
Even with her decisive victory in the Puerto Rican primary Sunday, by some estimates Sen. Hillary Clinton still needs to win more than 80% of the remaining superdelegates to have a prayer of winning the nomination. That is, of course, if superdelegates who’ve already publicly endorsed Sen. Barack Obama stick with their pick. On a brief press conference held aboard her campaign plane Sunday night, Sen. Clinton hinted that options remain for superdelegates, even those that have already endorsed her rival.
“One thing about superdelegates is they can change their minds,” Clinton told a gaggle of reporters in the aisle of the plane…. “I think it’s only now that we’re finishing these contests that people are going to actually reflect on who is our stronger candidate. And I believe I am. And I’m going to make that case,” Clinton said.
In other words, by Wednesday morning, there will be no more primaries or caucuses on the calendar, and neither Clinton nor Obama will have passed the 2,118 threshold on the basis of pledged delegates. The eventual nominee will need superdelegates, then, to put him or her over the top. And while Obama will very soon have enough commitments from superdelegates to give him the nomination, they won’t literally be able to vote for him until the convention in late August.
So Obama may very well cross the 2,118 finish line this week, and think he’s the nominee, only to have Clinton possibly say, “I want to fight to change those superdelegates’ minds. Their commitments aren’t votes, so Obama’s victory remains speculative.”
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe, who had recently said he thought the race would be over this week, conceded yesterday that the finish line may not actually be the finish line. Asked whether the race would be over when Obama passed 2,118, McAuliffe said, “No, it’s not it.”
McAuliffe added, “We’re calling the uncommitted ones, primarily. But we’ve heard things. You know, you pick up stuff. So we’re following up on leads that we get. Just remember: No superdelegate is bound until they vote at the convention.”
What’s more, the Politico’s Ken Vogel reported that Clinton was asked directly at a press conference whether she considers the 2,118-delegate threshold as the finish line, and she said, “[T]hat’s a question we’re going to be considering.”
So, even if the race looks over this week, there’s no guarantee the Clinton campaign will believe it is over. The Clinton campaign would be within its rights — and would be playing by the rules — if it kept on going, trying to win the nomination by hoping to flip Obama superdelegates to their side.
I’m not saying this will happen, only that Clinton and her campaign chairman hinted that it is an option on their minds.
Of course, it appears that if the Clinton campaign were to pursue such a course, it might backfire.
Pointing the way to a peaceful end for the tumultuous presidential primary campaign, some key supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that they accepted a new finish line in the race for delegates, a threshold Barack Obama could reach as soon as this week.
Obama aides said they expected him to surpass the 2,118 needed delegates after the final Democratic balloting finished Tuesday in South Dakota and Montana, and as more superdelegates backed the Illinois senator.
Moreover, a number of Clinton backers signaled Sunday that they were wary of the kind of protracted fight that some of her aides said they might wage in the coming months.
“It would be most beneficial if we resolved this nomination sooner rather than later,” said U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida, a high-profile superdelegate who backs Clinton. “The more time we have to get through a general-election period and the more time we have to prepare in advance of the convention, the better.”
We’ll know more soon enough.