AP says Obama has ‘clinched,’ but the count is less than reliable

June 3, 2008

The AP seems to be having an awkward day when it comes to calling the Democratic presidential race. In the late morning, the AP reported that Hillary Clinton will concede in her speech in NYC tonight. Within minutes, Clinton campaign officials insisted that the report was simply wrong.

Now the AP is reporting that Barack Obama has, as of this afternoon, clinched the nomination. That’s not quite right, either, at least not yet.

Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday after a grueling marathon, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

Campaigning on an insistent call for change, Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic race that sparked record turnout in primary after primary, yet exposed deep racial and gender divisions within the party.

The tally was based on public declarations from delegates as well as from another 15 who have confirmed their intentions to the AP. It also included 11 delegates Obama was guaranteed as long as he gained 30 percent of the vote in South Dakota and Montana later in the day. It takes 2,118 delegates to clinch the nomination. [emphasis added]

That bolded phrase makes quite a bit of difference. It’s why the report isn’t exactly reliable, and why the bottles remain corked at Obama campaign headquarters.

Ben Smith explained:

Not to be a stickler here, but that’s not how this has been working, either in our count or in the Obama campaign’s. The commitments that matter are the ones that are public. So the story is trivial: I think you could probably get virtually all of the superdelegates at this point to privately acknowledge that they’ll vote for Obama at the convention.

So as far as the (academic) matter of deciding when exactly Obama gets the majority, I’m going to stick with named supporters. Our count, and the Obama campaign’s, leave him about 30 shy.

Yep. Ben’s not being a “stickler,” he’s being accurate. The AP is a little over anxious to get the jump on the “clinched” headline, but the story — which seems to be everywhere — really is trivial. Once those private commitments become public, then the AP can get back to us. As of this minute, the counts that I’ve seen show Obama 30.5 delegates from the magic number of 2,118.

Obama has, by the way, picked up 10 new superdelegate endorsements in the last six hours, and rumor has it there will be plenty more as the day unfolds. But unlike the commitments the AP relied on, they’re all public.

The Democratic race will be over real soon, but there’s no reason for the AP to jump the gun.

Don’t matter if you’re right or wrong as long as you’re first.

  • This is not helpful. The mixed messages and frankly outright bad reporting are not helping Obama or giving Clinton any incentive to start unifying.

    In fact, they feed into Hillary’s meme of being victimized and pushed out of the race.

    Obviously, I’m someone who thinks Hillary needs to drop out, but not at the AP’ say so.

  • I agree that it’s sort of lame non-story, but I’m all for the media admitting this race is over, and it pleases me nonetheless… and I think a story about 15 supers waiting to endorse is news, even if it’s also conventional wisdom that flood will start soon.

  • Whether its right or whether its wrong doesn’t matter in the least. It sells and the bottom line is the only thing that matters to a corporation.

  • The AP is just out of control with this “first!” business. A couple of weeks ago they gave John McCain a clean bill of health six minutes after getting their first look at the hundreds of pages of medical reports. Really, they suck.

  • BREAKING AP: Obama wins presidency!

    Gallup has privately confirmed voters’ intentions to AP reporters that they favor Obama 49%-44%.

  • Barack Obama effectively clinched … after a grueling marathon, becoming the first black … to lead his party into a fall campaign … for change. Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic race

    Title: Kenyan Wins Marathon

    AP – the new Onion

  • The latest poison pill? CNN says Clinton tells NY lawmakers that she’s open to the VP slot.

    So, Obama “can’t win” if he snubs her Democratic supporters by not taking her on, and probably can’t win the general if she IS on the ticket.

    (See “kitchen sink”, Bill’s freelancing comments throughout — including today’s scumbag remarks re the Vanity Fair article — the specter of HRC a heartbeat from the Oval Office, the specter of Bill anywhere near the WH, etc.)

  • The latest poison pill:beep52

    A bit Napoleanic isn’t it? And can we stop pretending that every single mention of this possibility in the last month or so, whether by pundits or journalists, was in close coordination with the Clinton campaign. As my Dad used to say, “You just can’t polish a turd!”

  • “A bit Napoleanic isn’t it?” — Danp

    Yep. I hope he doesn’t cave on this, and offers a cabinet position or something (not that I want to see her in the news anywhere, but i can see utility in some sort of conciliation). The two of them are so incompatible.

    What bothers me most is that she set up the very conditions that would enable her to blackmail him this way if she didn’t succeed in the primary. Her whole case since Super Tuesday or so has been built around confusing performance in the Democratic primary with performance in the general while whipping supporters into such a frenzy that she may have created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Plus, even if such a nightmare ticket did prove successful in Nov, the poor guy would have to spend 4 years sleeping with one eye open.

    Shakespeare would be fascinated.

  • Plus, even if such a nightmare ticket did prove successful in Nov, the poor guy would have to spend 4 years sleeping with one eye open.

    There are ways of keeping VPs in line and out of trouble, like sending them to every state funeral, state fair and state mental hospital opening possible. Their out-of-control, limelight-loving husbands…mmmm, maybe a bit harder. But there are always girls handy to distract Bill if necessary.

    I really don’t much mind the idea of Hillary as VP, except for the reward-the-screaming-toddler aspect and the sad truth that if Obama wins a second term, we’ll have to go through having her as a presidential candidate all over again.

    Okay, so I guess I do mind it. But what really concerns me in the moment is the number of Republicans who are unenamored enough of McCain to stay home but would crawl over broken glass to vote against Hillary wherever she is on the Dem ticket. It would appear from her powerful negatives and other polling results that the number of Republicans who want to vote against her is considerably larger than the minority of Clinton supporters who would vote for McCain.

  • I’ve said it before, don’t trust any AP article written by Nedra Pickler. She’s a right-wing partisan and not a credible source of news. She has history of covering the Democratic political campaigns and injecting her bias.

    Lo and behold – in the link:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_el_pr/primary_rdp;_ylt=AspYcUglYyikP362_YRQHsCs0NUE

    Look who one of the contributors is –

    Associated Press Writers Nedra Pickler, Beth Fouhy and Devlin Barrett in Washington, Stephen Majors in Columbus, Ohio, Jim Davenport in Columbia, S.C., and Libby Quaid in Memphis, Tenn. contributed to this story

  • “But what really concerns me in the moment is the number of Republicans who are unenamored enough of McCain to stay home but would crawl over broken glass to vote against Hillary wherever she is on the Dem ticket” — Maria

    Indeed. And the more I think about it, the worse it gets. She’s given the Repubs enough footage that a teenager with iMovie could put together a withering ad campaign. Remember this little gem?

    “Now, I could stand up here and say, ‘Let’s just get everybody together. Let’s get unified,'” Clinton said to laughter of the crowd.

    “The skies will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect,” she said dryly as the crowd erupted.

  • doubtful (12): Thanks. That’s one name I can cross off my Xmas list. Now I just have to find out where they sell it. 🙂

  • Don’t you think she’d be happy if he offered her a spot on the Supreme Court? It would be perfect! It would appeal to her sense of imperiousness in a big way, and would drive the wingnuts absolutely ballistic for as long as she lived. What’s not to like?

  • What’s not to like? -President Lindsay

    I personally think she lacks the judgment required, and I think she’d tack to the right when free of the constraints of an election.

    Honestly, after running a campaign that couldn’t pay its bills, stay on message, or hold subordinates accountable, why does she deserve a leadership position at all? Why does she deserve to be a Senator?

    Sure, she’s had a lot of people vote for her, but really, how much of that was earned during this primary and how much of it is because she’s married to Bill Clinton? That contract does not entitle her to a position she hasn’t earned.

  • Oh, doubtful, you do so live up to your name. I think Hillary is socially progressive enough to make a pretty decent S.C. justice, that in the vast majority of cases she’d stay quite liberal. Your point about not being within the constraints of an election works both ways, you know. If she doesn’t have to please lobbyists and corporations and big donors anymore, it’ll just be up to her philosophy and sense of the law. I think we could do a whole lot worse. Better? Probably. But watching the wingers’ heads explode as she takes the oath would be worth seeing her don the robe.

  • Oh, doubtful, you do so live up to your name. -President Lindsay

    I am the cynics cynic, that’s for sure. I’ll give you that it would drive the Republicans crazy.

    Maybe if the issue comes up during Obama’s Presidency, I’ll reconsider my position.

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