Guest Post by Morbo
Like many of you, I’m quite excited by Barack Obama’s candidacy. It isn’t just the historic nature of it. There’s a feeling of something special about this campaign, like we truly might be on the verge of a defining moment of American politics.
I laughingly call this sense of being carried away by the man “Obama Fever.” I won’t fess up to a full-blown case, but I know I’ve got more than a touch.
Yet I struggle to remain grounded in reality. I don’t want to be a downer, but progressives need to keep a sense of perspective about the November election. Chances are, it is not going to be an Obama blowout.
Make no mistake, Obama is in an excellent position and can win, but people who are predicting a cakewalk had better wake up. It’s likely to be a tough race.
I say this in light of an Alternet article that has lately been making the rounds. Guy T. Saperstein, past president of the Sierra Club Foundation, predicts a landslide for Obama, possibly 300-350 electoral votes.
I believe this view is Pollyannaish. Saperstein is right that many trends favor Obama. The economy is terrible, the war in Iraq lingers on, the Republican brand has collapsed and so on. If all voters were rational, this would not even be a contest.
But all voters are not rational. People who are barely keeping their heads above water are quite capable of basing their vote on flag pins or an internet rumor that Obama is really a Muslim.
Nor are all people well informed. Huge numbers of Americans still perceive John McCain as a moderate and have at best a vague grasp of what he stands for. The mainstream media continues its love affair with the man, so we can’t expect them to inform the people. That’s one reason why even as the Republican Party sinks overall, McCain still compares favorably with Obama in polls.
We must also accept the unfortunate fact that some people are simply racist and will not vote for a black man, even if they like his views. How many people feel this way? I have no idea. There could be enough of them to tip some states.
But Obama is smarter than McCain, right? Of course he is. So what? Al Gore is at least 10 times smarter than George W. Bush. That race should have been a blowout, yet Bush ran well enough to get close to Gore, enabling the Supreme Court to put Bush in office.
But Obama is a gifted public speaker who connects with crowds, while McCain is wooden and frequently so addled he appears confused. So what? Again, if all voters were rational, McCain would not be a serious contender. Despite his numerous gaffes already, he is anyway.
But it’s a Democratic year! Everyone knows the Democrats are going to do well. I agree. The Democrats will do well in the House and Senate, almost certainly picking up more seats. Sadly, this could cut against Obama. Some voters might feel comfortable voting for McCain, believing that a Democratic Congress will curb his worse impulses.
I’d like to think that as the campaign moves forward, the American public will see McCain’s faults and realize the man is not fit for the White House and at the same time be inspired by the sense of hope that Obama expresses so well. But after eight years of Bush, I will never again make the mistake of assuming that the obviously superior candidate will win. American politics is just not that simple.
Obama can win. But we’re going to have to work for it. Obama will need your money, your activism and your legwork. Nothing would make me happier than an Obama blowout, and if that happens, I’ll gladly eat heaping amounts of crow. But let’s not start serving it up yet. If you want to win this thing, get to work.