Tuesday’s campaign round-up

June 17, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Barack Obama announced yesterday that he intends to visit Iraq and Afghanistan before the election in November. John McCain predicted that Obama would embrace the Bush/McCain policy on Iraq after seeing the facts on the ground. I don’t think that’s true.

* McCain was pressed a bit yesterday on his Clayton ‘Claytie’ Williams fundraiser. “My people were not aware of the statement that he made 16 or 18 years ago,” McCain told CNN’s Dana Bash. “So when we found out that this was planned there we said ‘Nope, we’ll reschedule it and do it someplace else,’ and I understand that he’s not attending. That’s pretty much the sum of it all.” McCain added that he would not return any of the money Williams raised on his behalf.

* We’ve all heard the talk about Virginia being competitive this year, and now we’re starting to see evidence to bolster the speculation. A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama leading McCain in the commonwealth, 45% to 44%.

* Perhaps more importantly, a new poll out of Ohio from Public Policy Polling — which, incidentally, got the presidential primary in Ohio almost exactly right — shows Obama leading McCain in the Buckeye State by 11 points, 50% to 39%.

* Reports of Obama’s Hispanic problem have been greatly exaggerated.

* A couple of new polls show Obama looking strong in New York. An NYT poll shows Obama leading McCain by 19 points, 51% to 32%. Similarly, a Siena poll pegs Obama’s lead at 18.

* Kansas is unlikely to throw its support to Obama, but a new Rasmussen poll shows the state a little more competitive than one might ordinarily expect. A Rasmussen poll shows McCain up, 47% to 37%. The 10-point lead for McCain is down from a 21-point lead over Obama in May.

* Rasmussen also shows Obama leading McCain in Oregon by eight points, 46% to 38%.

* Interesting analysis of the electoral-college map — the networks are characterizing the race as far more competitive than outlets like Rasmussen, RCP, and FiveThirtyEight.

* Obama isn’t about to let anyone forget that McCain doesn’t know what Google is.

* The Senate race in Minnesota isn’t looking as good as we’d hoped, at least not yet. A SurveyUSA poll shows incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) leading Al Franken (D) by 12, 52% to 40%.

* Obama isn’t about to let anyone forget that McCain doesn’t know what Google is.

I’m sticking with the altavista.

McCain campaign responds: “We are having trouble over here figuring out these newfangled internets. We have, however, posted a letter via Pony Express to the Obama campaign asking if they might enlist the services of Father Pfleger on our behalf to help us in setting up our webcams.”

Pretty funny, but what does Pfleger have to do with technology? Cheap shot.

  • “We are having trouble over here figuring out these newfangled internets. We have, however, posted a letter via Pony Express to the Obama campaign asking if they might enlist the services of Father Pfleger on our behalf to help us in setting up our webcams.”

    They’re probably setting up webcams so that a partially clothed McCain will perform any acts that rich Republicans demand during their private viewings.

  • Kansas is unlikely to throw its support to Obama

    I wouldn’t be too sure about that—by November, a whole lot of people—and even that little dog named Toto—are going to learn to hate McMunchkin-Land with a powerful passion….

  • I can’t believe that we’ve found a way to lose to Norm Coleman in a year when Republicans are going to lose badly in general, but we have. I’m not sure that I’ve never seen a worse candidate for major office than Al Franken. He’s terrible. If this is the best the Minnesota Democratic Party can do, we’re doomed. Maybe, just maybe, after Franken gets his ass kicked and joins Mike Ciresi in the Hall of Infamy, we can stop making vanity nominations.

  • Very interesting Electoral College predictions:
    Obama McCain Net

    Electoral-Vote.com 304 221 Obama +83
    FiveThirtyEight.com 300 238 Obama +62
    Real Clear Politics 238 190 Obama +48
    Rasmussen Reports 260 240 Obama +20

    MSNBC 200 200 Tied
    CNN 190 194 McCain +4

    It is so painfully obvious the MSM outlets are purposely characterizing this thing as closer than it currently is.

  • And I continue to predict Obama with at least 435 Electoral votes, and see no reason to change this.

    It still seems obvious that McCain has no ‘upside.’ Anyone who will be voting for him has already made up their mind to do so — and many of them may reconsider. On the other hand, many people who are dubious about Obama — and many of us started out that way, including me — will find them becoming more and more attracted to him the more they see him.

    (In fact, this was Sen. Clinton’s problem as well. Everybody knew her and had made up their minds about her from the start. She only lost supporters, rather than gaining them.)

  • If you look at the EV site and just count strong DEM/REP states, Obama leads 168 – 120 +48 Obama.

    Add in weak DEM/REP and you’re looking at 244-201 +43 Obama.

    McCain doesn’t stand a chance.

  • It is so painfully obvious the MSM outlets are purposely characterizing this thing as closer than it currently is. -independent thinker

    Let them. Whatever it takes to prevent the Democrats from getting complacent.

  • In fact, let’s look at the numbers and states. McCain can’t win any state in NE, can’t win NY,NJ, or the other Mid-Atlantic states (not even Pennsylvania). He can’t win anything on the West Coast — including Hawaii. He probably will win Alaska, but the Begich candidacy makes that closer than was expected. (Tie him to Stevens guys.)

    He’ll win Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, probably South Dakota — though that’s iffy given their support for Daschle and Johnson — Oklahoma, and maybe Arizona and/or NM. I’ll give him a close win in Kansas — maybe. Okay, give him Kentucky as well — though the difficult race that McConnell faces makes that less than a sure thing. I continue to insist he’ll lose WV, which is a long-time Democratic stronghold in Congress. (Same with Montana.)

    In the midwest he’ll probably get Iowa, and might pull out Ohio — Sebelius would help Obama here — and Franken and Pawlenty probably will give him Minnesota. But he doesn’t stand a chance in Illinois, Indiana, or Michigan, no matter what the polls show now.

    The South is trickier. A couple of months ago I might have conceded them to him, but then the by-elections happened. (Remember, it wasn’t just that the Democrats won Republican seats, but that they won BIG in very Republican districts — even when the Republicans tried to tie the Democrats to Obama.) This is where the Veteran’s issue (and the War) will make a very big difference. I’ll give McCain Texas, NC, Mississippi, and maybe Alabama. But he’ll lose Florida (too many groups, elderly, Jews, Hispanics, and gays will transfer almost en masse from Hillary to Obama), SC (Veterans), Arkansas (If the Clintons help and he doesn’t pick Huck as VP — which would hurt elsewhere) and Georgia (close, but Atlanta will win it for Obama). And Tennessee and Missouri will be toss-ups.

    Okay, that gives him the following — starred states mean that if Barr runs a decent campaign he’s in trouble:
    Alaska [3]
    North Dakota*[3]
    South Dakota*[3]
    Idaho*[4]
    Utah [5]
    Wyoming[3]
    Iowa*[7]
    Ohio[20]
    Oklahoma[7]
    New Mexico*[5]
    Kansas[6]
    Kentucky[8]
    Texas*[34]
    North Carolina[15]
    Mississippi[6]
    Alabama[9]
    Minnesota*[10]
    throw in Missouri[11]
    and Tennessee[11]

    (hold on while I find my abacus)
    That gives him a max of 170 — a little higher than I figured, but I expect there will be more pro-Obama surprises than pro-McCain ones. But at best it breaks Obama 365-McCain 170.

    Anyone want to point out other states that — after five months of Sen. Stockdale’s growing confusions and flip-flops, five debates, and people getting to know Obama — they think he’ll carry?

  • Prup, that was a lot of work, but whatever you’re smoking you need to share.

    Iowa, and probably Minnesota, and possibly New Mexico are locks for Obama.

    On the other hand, Florida and West Virginia are most likely McCain’s, and Pennsylvania is not as easy as you make it sound for Obama.

    Of course, all of this is nit-picking at the magnitude of McCain’s loss; the math is pretty good for Obama now matter how you get there. (Unless you are like the MSM and use the Rove Math.)

  • Tuesdaze:
    Pennsylvania went for Kerry. It has elected Republicans state-wide, but only ‘moderate’ ones. (Yes, Specter IS a moderate, as was Schweiker, Scranton, Hugh Scott, etc.) Look at the Lynn Swan debacle. No way it goes for McCain.

    I still insist that WV is a lock for Obama. It is always a strong Democratic state in Congressional elections — and Cheney’s comment didn’t help win the only Republican in Congress (Capito) for the ticket. Most importantly, it is a strongly RR state, and McCain’s blunders and cluelesness on religion will mean that a lot of RRs will stay home — and he won’t have the usual Republican GOTV operation.

    Florida will be close, but the groups I mentioned above will carry it for Obama — again the RRs ‘abstention’ will help and Obama’s boldness on Cuba will swing at least a proportion of the Republican Cubans to him.

    I wish I was sure about Iowa and Minnesota, but they will be close — especially if Pawlenty is VP — and does anyone know why people have stopped talking about him for the job? Did I miss something? I think Franken’s incompetence will give it to McCain, but I said there might be pro-Obama surprises.

    On second thought, I’ll agree on NM which brings McCain’s top down to 165.

    As for ‘sharing what I’m smoking,’ well, if you are in Brooklyn…

  • yeah, i think MN is, unfortunately, questionable, but being from the midwest I’ll vouch for Iowa. 2004 was an anomoly. Iowa went D in 92, 96 and 2000, and since ’04 has upped its D-ratio in (a) Congressional Delegation and (b) statehouse (where D’s took both chambers), and in voter-reg advantage thanks to huge caucus turnout. Obama is from a neighboring state. Iowa will be close numerically, but it is nonetheless safe for Obama.

  • “…a new poll out of Ohio from Public Policy Polling… shows Obama leading McCain in the Buckeye State by 11 points…”

    Frankly, I’m not surprised (despite the claims of she who shall remain nameless). Some folks I know out there who are pretty plugged in have been telling me for a couple years that Ohioans are pissed big time at the mess Repubs have made. I get the feeling Blackwell’s antics a few years back opened some eyes.

  • I simply do not understand why the MSM and nearly everyone in the blogs is calling MN a tight contest btwn McCain and Obama. Forget about your worries, re: Franken. Norm (dim lantern) Coleman does not have a chance. In the last poll here, Obama was up by 13 points over McCain. Despite what you may have heard, Minnesota is still a Democrat state, regardless of who is picked as McCain’s VP. In fact, I hope Pawlenty is picked as VP, then he would have less time to mess things up here.
    Peace to all.

  • A new Rasmussen poll shows Obama leading McCain in the commonwealth, 45% to 44%. — CB

    i refuse to get excited until I see the numbers not only beyond MOE, but beyond what can be easily “fixed” by a wee bit of Diebold with a dash of caging.

    OT, to tuesdaze:
    What are you gonna do tomorrow? “Wednesday” is a bitch to couple with “daze”; no good breaking point. For that matter, Saturday is not much better, unless you’re willing to make the name fairly long (saturdaze).

  • As for Diebolding — which used to worry me a lot more — that takes a Republican State Administration — which PA ain’t got. And again, today’s polls are Sen. Stockdale’s top.

    (cues the chorus)

    McCain has no upside.

  • It is so painfully obvious the MSM outlets are purposely characterizing this thing as closer than it currently is.

    Kind of like they pretended Clinton was in the running for months longer than she actually was…and weeks longer than anyone paying a minimum of attention and possessing the most basic math skills believed she was.

  • wow, lee – that really says a lot that McCain has taken so many trips to so many places. . . and learned so very little from it. He must be even more dense than I thought. Thanks for making sure I realized how seriously flawed he really is as a candidate.

  • Prup:

    As a Minnesotan I can tell you that there is no way McCain will take Minnesota even with Governor Timmy as the VP. Minnesota has had a rather competitive 3rd party (the Independence Party), which has had a major, but declining influence on the last three governors races here. The high water makr for the IP was when Jesse Ventura won in 1998 beating Norm Coleman and Skip Humphrey (son of Hubert H. Humphrey). Governor Timmy is young and telegenic, but he has never won with more than 50% of the vote. Last time, he won by just a hair.

    Also a lot of people here see him as being a puppet for the Taxpayers League (ala Grover Norquist) and he got a political black eye from the Interstate 35W bridge collapse. Recently, six republicans voted to override Governor Timmy’s veto of a gas tax increase to pay for bridge repairs around the state.

    Minnesota does have a quirky voting record, but I can say with absolute certainty that McCain won’t win Minnesota The latest poll has Obama by double digits.

    Now what I would really like to see is Jesse Ventura get into the Senate race (he’s been threatening to do just that). Not that he’s my favorite for the office, but man would I love to see him cause another embarrassing defeat for Coleman.

  • DK, last poll i saw in Strib with Ventura in, he drew equally from both Coleman and Franken. Not sure we can count on him to be the spoiler, since some of Franken’s current support likely comes from those young, less-political folks attracted to the fact that Franken is not your usual politician – people who were and could again be attracted to Ventura for the same reason.

  • Prup:

    Actually, as crazy as it may sound, I think Ventura could beat both Franken and Coleman in a three way race. It’s a bit scary because Ventura is a total raging narcissist. However, if you actually look past his media relationship to what he did when in office, he wasn’t that bad and he surrounded himself with generally competent staff.

  • want the facts on the ground? Right after McCain walked through the Shoraz market with gunships, vests and 100 soldiers- 15 workers and merchants were kidnapped and killed as retribuion by militants for associating with the US.

    -fact on the ground our own troops electrocuted by faulty wiring. Rockets still landing in “the green zone”

    -Solatia- which is essentially blood money for civilians killed in the “crossfire”being paid out in cash totalling tens of millions- divide that by the average pittance of 2500$ and you have thousands of Iraqi dead.

    -facts on the ground- the MSM’s self-censorship and tacit complicity with this war by not showing images that may (God forbid)_ upset us.
    -facts on the ground: A rising talent in the army under Petreaus commits suicide because his concept of Duty,Honor, Country could not withstand the Fraud Waste and Corruption mantra of the Corporate War profiteers. A West Point cadet does not lie,cheat or steal nor sffer anyone else to do so. That is unless your name is Bush. I got your chest bump right here. I pity those new grads.

    • Comments are closed.