Wednesday’s campaign round-up

June 18, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* There was some evidence during the Democratic primaries that Barack Obama would struggle in the three biggest swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This morning, Quinnipiac released polls from each of the states, and Obama leads John McCain in all three. In Florida, Obama is up by four (47-43); in Ohio, Obama is up by six (48-42); and in Pennsylvania, Obama is up by 12 (52-40).

* Together at last: “Hillary Clinton will appear with Barack Obama in Washington next week to persuade her top donors to write big checks to the Democrats’ nominee, the Daily News has learned. The June 26 event will be the first to bring together the victor and vanquished from the Democratic primary race and put their pledges of unity for the fall campaign into action, a source said. A joint public appearance also is in the works, insiders said.”

* Good: “The DNC will today announce that they intend to file a lawsuit next week in U.S. District Court to spur an FEC inquiry over whether John McCain illegally withdrew from the federal financing system.”

* If you haven’t seen the new ad from the political arms of MoveOn.org and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, you probably ought to take a look. The WSJ reported, “The ad, ‘Not Alex,’ is one of the highest tested ad buys MoveOn.org has run in recent years, said pollster Anna Greenberg, whose firm has tested the persuasiveness of roughly 50 ads by the group since 2004. ‘What we saw with this ad is people saw the message as straight-forward and clear, and the message was credible, and they largely agreed with what she was saying,’ Greenberg said.

* An eight-year-old reporter asked Obama yesterday if he might consider Al Gore as a running mate. “He may not want to be vice president again, since he’s already done that for eight years,” Obama said. “But certainly he’s somebody that I’ll be getting advice from as we go forward and hopefully he’ll help me when I’m president.”

* Obama met last night with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, most of whom supported Clinton during the primaries.

* Obama’s lead in Minnesota is just one point, according to SurveyUSA.

* In Wisconsin, Obama leads McCain by five, according to SurveyUSA.

* Obama isn’t going to win Kentucky, but McCain’s lead in the state, according to SurveyUSA is 12 points. I thought it would be much higher (it was 24 points a month ago).

* In North Carolina, a Civitas poll shows McCain’s lead over Obama down to just four points, 45% to 41%.

* Plouffe, Axelrod, & Co. asked independent groups earlier this year to direct their resources to the DNC and the Obama campaign, but PowerPAC.org, among others, are planning to do their own thing anyway.

* Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ken.) is ahead in his re-election campaign, but not by much. A Rasmussen poll shows him up by four over Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, 50% to 46%.

* Similarly, Rasmussen shows Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens with a two-point lead over Mark Begich (D), 46% to 44%.

* And believe it or not, Rep. William “Cash in the Freezer” Jefferson (D-La.) is planning to run for re-election, despite his looming trial on corruption charges.

“Obama’s lead in Minnesota is just one point, according to SurveyUSA.”

Of all the states mentioned, this one really surprises me. Minnesota has a long history of populism dem support for president, and I would be floored if McCain wins this state in November. Minnesota hasn’t voted republican since 1972 when they supported Nixon. And prior to 1972, it was 1956 when they supported Ike.

  • “Hillary Clinton will appear with Barack Obama in Washington next week to persuade her top donors to write big checks to the Democrats’ nominee…”

    I say take their checks, then look at who they are from and what those people actually have been up to, and then publicly send some of them back. That would lead to more funds coming in from people like me who want a lot of those fuckers left out in the cold.

  • * An eight-year-old reporter…

    …demonstrated more journalistic integrity than the diaper-soiling, single-synapse vermin over at RedState? Why am I not surprised?

    * Obama isn’t going to win Kentucky, but McCain’s lead in the state, according to SurveyUSA is 12 points. I thought it would be much higher (it was 24 points a month ago).

    If he can cut The McFool’s lead by 50% in one months, then I think it’s more than merely possible for Obama to wipe out that other 50% in what—139 days? Leave the downheated pessimism for the Republikanner Beasties—they’ll be needing every ounce of it they can get their claws on—to wallow in!

  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ken.) is ahead in his re-election campaign, but not by much. A Rasmussen poll shows him up by four over Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, 50% to 46%.

    Sweet Jebus, we need to send Mitch McConman packing. And making him sweat that prospect will also pay off hugely as he sucks resources from other more winnable races. Anyone who lives in his district should write letters to their local papers.

  • An eight-year-old reporter asked Obama yesterday if he might consider Al Gore as a running mate. “He may not want to be vice president again, since he’s already done that for eight years,” Obama said. “But certainly he’s somebody that I’ll be getting advice from as we go forward and hopefully he’ll help me when I’m president.”

    I like the idea that we’ll have a President who responds seriously to an eight-year-old reporter.

  • McAce will be so far behind by the Repugnant Convention that all bets will be off and there will be a draft Jeb Bush push that will spin the USA on it’s ass. The neocons won’t give up on a contest unless it’s too far beyond their reach to steal it. It has to be close to pull that shit off. They will also (at any cost) not relinquish the power they have had over the past eight years. Period. So they will have to muddle the whole soup at the convention and launch the old guy to make up enough ground to make it close enough to steal.

    I can see it now: All three of the Bushits standing at the podium with their hands clasped and raised in neocon defiance. (Break to commercial)…

  • * If you haven’t seen the new ad from the political arms of MoveOn.org and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, you probably ought to take a look.

    Oh yeah, great ad. Brought tears to my eyes.

    McCain you can’t have our kids and grandkids and grandgrandkids. You can’t add to their debt. You can’t give away their future for oil company profits.

  • 5. On June 18th, 2008 at 12:40 pm, Linda in Oregon said:
    I like the idea that we’ll have a President who responds seriously to an eight-year-old reporter.

    I like the idea that we’ll have a President who won’t act like an eight-year old. 🙂

  • To the issue about Minnesota, look at what Nate Silver has to say over at 538 “In Minnesota, however, SurveyUSA has Obama with just a 1-point lead over McCain. SurveyUSA’s methodology takes a more fluid view of party identification, and so it tends to produce results that can be more encouraging for the non-dominant party in a particular state. Its most recent previous Minnesota poll, taken back in May, had shown Obama ahead by 6 points”

    Remember, a poll isn’t a poll isn’t a poll. All polls have a certain amount of art in them.

    But still, Minnesota is closer than I’d like as well. Still, it’s a pretty good time to be a democrat right now.

  • Obama’s lead in Obama’s lead in Minnesota is just one point, according to SurveyUSA.

    What’s the deal with Minnesota? First Franken is struggling, and now this. I thought this Humphrey, Mondale, Wellstone state was royal blue?

    I’m scatchin’ my head.

  • Racer X @ #2:

    If you really want to lose the election, or make it harder to win, then go ahead and do that.

    It’s one thing to renounce the endorsement and money of someone who has publicly said and done reprehensible things (see: John Hagee). It is entirely another to say, “We want your support, but only if you’re good enough to be in our club, and pass our tests.”

    When did everybody lose track of the idea that votes are earned by the candidates, not owed by the electorate?

  • Loved the “Not Alex” ad, but I wish they would extend the mother/baby image another beat or two before cutting to the who is responsible part. It would add to the impact immensely.

  • The ‘Not Alex’ ad makes me shiver. My two boys, six and almost-three, leave both me and my husband with the same feeling. A large part of our votes for Obama in November will be for their sakes.

    Oh, and miwome @ 12:

    How do you differentiate between “Renounce the endorsement and money of someone who has publicly said and done reprehensible things” and “We want your support, but only if you’re good enough to be in our club, and pass our tests”? It seemed to me that Racer X was talking about the first, not the second.

  • Thing about Minnesota is that there’s actually three major parties in the state: DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor), the local GOP, and the Independent party. Those of you with long memories will probably remember that we elected Jesse Ventura (I) to governor not terribly long ago.

    The important thing to take away from this is that most of the DFLers are from the Iron Range and the Minneapolis half of the TC area, and most of the Repubs are from the West/Southwest portions of the state that border Iowa, Nebraska, and the Dakotas along with St. Paul. The Independents (both Big I and little i) are scattered around everywhere, and there’s a lot of them in MN, especially amongst the 18-28 crowd (of which I am one). We typically tend to vote on the issues, considering we’re independent and all, and there’s a strong bias towards Ron Paul’s end of things, although a lot of college age Independents voted for Obama during the primary as well.

    I’d bet that most of the presidential polls in the state have been conducted mostly along party lines and didn’t include much of the Independent party in either the Dems or Repubs side.

  • Loved the “Not Alex” ad, but I wish they would extend the mother/baby image another beat or two before cutting to the who is responsible part. It would add to the impact immensely. — Curmudgeon, @13

    That was my first thought too — that it was just a few seconds too short and that the mother sounded a tad rushed towards the end. But then I thought that keeping a baby that age cooperative (charmingly sunny and stealing everyone’s heart) for as long as that was already bordering on a miracle. OTOH… If he *had* started bawling towards the end, it would also have reinforced the message (hell, no, I won’t go; mama, don’t let them take me), so I don’t know.

    That’s the problem with being a Libra; you always see two sides to every problem… Wonder how schizo Libras manage to cope; all those endless discussions with multiple selves.

  • “The DNC will today announce that they intend to file a lawsuit next week in U.S. District Court to spur an FEC inquiry over whether John McCain illegally withdrew from the federal financing system.”

    Given that the DNC is pretty much broke, this is an excellent use of what limited resources it hasn’t already spent on 50-State. With this approach, a little $ just might shine a whole lot of light on the McFraud campaign shenanigans.

  • olo, @18,

    I’d agree with you, if it weren’t for the fact that FEC has been neutered; it’s supposed to have 6 members, a minimum of 4 are needed to render a binding decision and, currently, it consists of 2 powerless fellas (I don’t even know which party/parties they’re from; FEC is supposed to be 50-50 Repub-Dem). I’ve read somewhere that the issue of new nominees is likely to be revived soon (Friday?) but I don’t see that a new round of negotiations is likely to produce less of a logjam than the previous ones. Bush isn’t likely to relent on von Spakovski, and Senatorial Dems — unless they’re more foolish than I’ve been giving them credit for — are not likely to let him get the position.

  • Yo @1: Both Nixon and Ike were older than the other presidents of the time. I don’t know that it’s significant, but so is McCain.

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