A focus group in York, Pa.

June 25, 2008

My very first paid job in politics was in 1996, when I helped run a congressional campaign in York, Pennsylvania (yes, the birthplace of York Peppermint Patties). We had a great candidate, a solid message, and no money, running in a district that hadn’t seriously considered a Democrat for Congress in a generation or two. The results weren’t encouraging.

While I was there, though, I learned a bit about voters in south-central Pennsylvania. They are, to put it mildly, a conservative bunch. And those were the Democrats.

With that in mind, I was fascinated to read about a focus group, organized by the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania, held last night in York with 12 likely voters, none of whom had supported Barack Obama or John McCain in the Pennsylvania primary in early April.

A focus group conducted last night here in a county that Hillary Clinton carried in April showed that her supporters are coming around to Obama. But the group — 12 likely voters, all white, and all of whom didn’t back either Obama or McCain in the primary — also demonstrated that both candidates have plenty of work to do between now and November. The good news for Obama: Of the seven Clinton supporters, all of whom backed her strongly, five were solidly behind the Illinois senator, one was fiercely opposed (“I don’t trust Obama,” he said), and one was undecided (but noted that Clinton’s support of Obama would influence her vote).

The bad news: On some questions of character, patriotism, and values (who would you rather carry the American flag at the Olympics, who would you rather carpool with), the focus group overwhelmingly picked McCain. While Jeremiah Wright barely came up and “bitter” didn’t at all, two of the respondents — the Clinton supporter and a female Bush voter — had very negative opinions of him. “I don’t trust Osama … Obama. It’s only a letter difference,” said Charles, the Hillary backer. “His middle name is Hussein.” Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”

Some of those comments are, of course, pretty offensive, and more than a little ridiculous, but not especially surprising given the politics of the area.

What is surprising, though, is that of those 12 white voters in a conservative part of the state, not one of whom voted for Obama in April, a plurality (five) planned to vote for the Democrat. Four preferred McCain, and three were undecided.

I find this oddly encouraging — these voters are suspicious of Obama, but they’re either planning to or open to voting for him anyway. MSNBC said this was “striking.”

How’d this happen?

Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the focus group for the Annenberg School at the University of Pennsylvania, said Obama benefited from a room wanting change and to move beyond Bush. What skeptics were looking for, he added, was some “meat on the bone.” The five who said they would vote for him cited his fresh ideas, intelligence, grasp of the issues, and excitement and energy. The four who opposed him — all Bush voters, save Charles, the Hillary supporter — stressed his inexperience and their fears of him being commander-in-chief. And of the three who were undecided, one said they wanted to know more about his health-care plans; another wanted to know more about the kind of change he would bring; and the third said she was considering Obama because of change.

All things being equal, the Obama campaign should find this quite encouraging. Those looking for more “meat on the bone” will get plenty of information in the coming months, as will those undecided voters looking to learn more. That’s what general elections are for.

And what of McCain?

[M]any of the focus group participants cited his experience, his POW past, and his love of the country. But it was noteworthy that of the three undecideds, all of them voted for Bush in 2004 — but they were unwilling to announce their support for McCain. One of them, Kim, expressed concern about the Arizona senator’s age. Another, Janell, even recalled him saying at a GOP debate that the economy wasn’t in that bad of shape, and she said that McCain must chose a running mate “I have absolute confidence in” to win her vote. Hart said the fact that a GOP voter like Janell wasn’t supporting McCain right now was telling. “If [she] isn’t a locked-in vote for John McCain, that is bad news.”

Given what I know of York, I’m pleasantly surprised.

Yes, I’m afraid they’re going to find more and more to like about Obama as the campaign goes on and progressives will find less and less.

  • “I don’t trust Osama … Obama. It’s only a letter difference,” said Charles, the Hillary backer. “His middle name is Hussein.”

    Is his middle name “Mary” … ?

    Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”

    Yes … because only white people named Bob or John are, in fact, “true Americans.”

    You know, seeing comments like those make me wonder if we even deserve to exist as a nation — it just stuns me how many people are openly bigoted.

  • “I don’t trust Osama … Obama. It’s only a letter difference,” said Charles, the Hillary backer. “His middle name is Hussein.” Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”

    IDIOTS!

  • Those looking for more “meat on the bone” will get plenty of information in the coming months.

    I doubt it. There is plenty of meat on his issues pages and in his policy speeches, debates, and interviews. But it’s a bit incredible to hear people say they don’t know enough, when the differences between McCain and Obama are so huge. I sincerely doubt that these people are actually looking for anything. They’re merely repeating Hillary talking points.

  • McCain’s middle name is Sydney. Does this betray him as an Aussie traitor? Or perhaps a closet cross-dresser? Joan….John, it’s only a one letter difference.

  • On some questions of character, patriotism, and values (who would you rather carry the American flag at the Olympics, who would you rather carpool with), the focus group overwhelmingly picked McCain.

    Must have been all those bombs he dropped on those short barefoot Vietnamese.
    Something very manly about that.
    Brings a patriotic tear to my eye…

  • What this seems to suggest is that Obama can expect the following:

    1) to receive the votes of those who voted for him in the primary (of course);

    2) to pick up most of the votes of those who voted for Hillary; and

    3) to challenge McCain for at least some of the Bush voters.

    Given that Pa., IIRC, went blue in 2000 and 2004, that’s not a favorable result from McCain’s point of view.

  • I am really interested in these perspectives, and the asymmetry between left and right. For instance, can you imagine this:

    a focus group in Berkeley CA, organized by the University of California, met last night, to discuss the presidential campaign. One of the group, a Barack Obama supporter, and another, a Hillary Clinton supporter, discussed their doubts about John McCain:

    “I don’t trust McFuhrer … McCain. It’s only a couple of letters difference,” said Charles, the Hillary backer. “His middle name is Sidney.” Observed Terry, the female Obama voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”

    What creates this method of reasoning? (and there are similar disconnects on the left – “Bush planned 9-11,” though I honestly can’t think of another one, and they seem less prevalent.) How do we attack it? Obviously, things like anti-abortion, less business regulation, anti-gay, even “keeping us safe through war,” while horrible as policy, are at least based on quasi-objective (or at least perceptive) fact. But a person’s name, given to them before they could speak it themselves somehow defines them? Not a true American? what’s that even mean? Are these people reachable but misinformed? is it simply code words for bias? simply a lack any reason other than their gut desire to justify their predetermined beliefs? or are they not capable of rational thought? Does this boil down to education, culture, or what?

  • Observed Terry, the female Bush voter: “I don’t feel he’s a true American.”

    Terry, the only true “Americans” are the ones we ran roughshod on and drove off of their ancestral lands and birthplaces into godforsaken reservations. And Terry wouldn’t trust them either I suppose.

    How’s the old saying go? “Trust the government? Ask the indians how that worked out.”

  • Folks, there’s no point in arguing via blog with moronic focus group participants. A certain segment of the population is, and always will be, firing on a cylinder or three less than the rest of us. Eyes on the prize:

    of those 12 white voters in a conservative part of the state, not one of whom voted for Obama in April, a plurality (five) planned to vote for the Democrat.

    Bring it on.

  • “stressed his inexperience and their fears of him being commander-in-chief.”

    Are you kidding me? After what we’ve had for the past 7 1/2 years for a commander in chief? McPain scares me even worse than that.

    This is what we get for a society that is driven by PR campaigns and are too wrapped up in normal life and light entertainment and bored by politics. It’s hard to get past that boredom part really … when they are not interested, just how are you going to “sex” up an election to hold their interest enough? This is the ideal populace for the Repuglicans. I’ll bet more of the general populace can tell you who played the Superbowl than who their congressional representatives are. That’s a tough market to penetrate.

  • Are these people aware that in 1961, when Obama was born, Osama bin Laden was not an international terrorist and Saddam Hussein was just making his bones in the Baath opposition in Iraq? Do they believe that Obama’s father, with magickal Muslim powers, divined that the two would become prominent Muslims killers and so gave his son a name sort of, kind of like theirs?

    You don’t have to support Obama, but to oppose him on the basis of his name is just to fucking stupid for words. Do these people associate with guys named Al? That’s just one letter away from Ali, a common Muslim name. Ibrahim is a common name in many Muslim countries. Has anyone really looked into Abraham Lincoln’s background? I mean, past all the hype–does anyone know if maybe his log cabin had a minaret? Abraham and Ibrahim are just a few letters apart.

  • I have two friends who hail from south central Pa. One from Hershey and one from Lichens.
    One lives in Vermont and the other moved back to Pa. They both have liberal leanings, but always remarked how many of the people in their area where very conservative, religious, wing-nuts.

    Maybe it was something in the coal mines.
    Maybe in the water.
    peace

  • steve….

    here’s the funniest thing about york…(and lancaster, for that matter)….

    they voted for santorum and swann in 2006…by the margin that each candidate lost by statewide…(60-40)

    so..if obama breaks even in york…its a huge win for dems.

    f.y.i…

    i have worked in media covering york for more than a decade..

    maybe we bumped into each other…

  • I saw a comment a couple of days ago that with Obama as president our country would become like a European country. And I thought, is that a bad thing? Most people in Europe have health care, pensions, long vacations, free quality education (no college debt), quality child care, and the list goes on. I’ll take it. Plus they are not attacking every oil rich country in the ME and killing their young men and women (except UK). People in the US are so stressed out with no work, no place to live, no health care, while the upper 10% are living large on our backs. Let’s change that now.

  • I cringed when I read that they had done a focus group here in York–we’re in a swath of PA that acts like Alabama much of the time!! I was not surprised at any of the comments I read–I did calls for Obama prior to the Primary in April, and ended up getting a terribly prejudiced and almost downright KKK man on the phone–even used the “n” word several times. I was quite upset–I mean, I know that some people are bigoted, but I had hoped that they would keep their thoughts to themselves. I was totally dumbfounded by this guy (and now wonder if Charles is the guy I called, altho he was much more vocal and loose on the phone with me–cannot see people over the phone, tho) and hardly remember how I ended the conversation.

    Most people are Republicans around here–especially in the suburbs; city is very Democratic–but the Democrats and their numbers are growing; many more Obama bumperstickers and yard signs–more Democratic people are openly announcing it with each election. The people like Charles are not terribly prevalent, tho, thank goodness.

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