Thursday’s campaign round-up

June 26, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A group of Quinnipiac polls conducted for the WaPo and the WSJ found some more encouraging news for Barack Obama in four key battleground states. The poll found Obama leading by five in Colorado (49% to 44%); six in Michigan (48% to 42%); 13 in Wisconsin (52% to 39%); and 17 in Minnesota (54% to 37%). Chris Cillizza added, “With partisans loyally aligning behind their respective parties, Obama’s edge in each of the four states is founded on two factors: An increased tendency for voters to identify as Democrats and a solid margin for the Democrat among independent voters.”

* Obama has reportedly asked his top fundraisers to each collect five or six checks “to help Senator Clinton repay the people who provided goods and services to her campaign.”

* David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, during a 90-minute briefing and press conference yesterday, mentioned in passing that he doesn’t think McCain “used the period from March 3rd [until the end of the Democratic primaries] very effectively, and for that, we’re grateful.”

* While some national polls show Obama up by double digits, the volatile Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows Obama and McCain tied at 45% each.

* All eyes on energy policy: “Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, rolled out a new Web site Wednesday that focuses on his energy proposals. The site, www.NewEnergyForAmerica.com, details differences in the energy plans of Obama and Sen. John McCain as the two men continue to debate the best way to meet the country’s energy needs when prices for oil and gasoline are at or near all-time highs.”

* SurveyUSA shows McCain leading Obama in Missouri by seven, 50% to 43%.

* Oddly enough, an Arizona State University/KAET-TV poll shows McCain leading Obama in Arizona, but by a smaller margin than expected. McCain leads with 38%, followed by Obama with 28%, but 34% remain undecided.

* The Obama campaign believes Bob Barr’s presence on the ballot may help tilt Alaska and Georgia in Obama’s direction.

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in California by a whopping 28 points.

* Nebraska looks like it’ll be pretty tough for Obama. Rasmussen shows McCain up by 16.

* Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), rumored to be a top candidate for the VP slot if Hillary Clinton had won the nomination, wouldn’t mind being Obama’s running mate.

* McCain hasn’t voted in the Senate since April 8.

* And he doesn’t like working on weekends, either.

Bayh wouldn’t surprise me one bit as the VP nominee. He’s acceptable to the Clinton crowd (except perhaps to the True Believer Restorationists, who’d see him as a threat to St. Hillary in 2016), wouldn’t overshadow Obama as a personality or intellect (the way, say, Webb could), moves Indiana from a reach to a tossup or edge-Obama, and has national security cred.

  • Shouldn’t McCain be working to get that gas-tax holiday thing passed? Or was he just jerking everyone’s chain 🙂

  • * And he doesn’t like working on weekends, either.

    John McCain—brought to you by the same ever-vigilant philosophy that gave us Pearl Harbor.

    Well—at least we know when the terrorists will attack us, if Johnny’s on the job. It fits right in with the administration’s “Friday afternoon dump” mindset….

  • Bush has a 23% approval rating; the Dems control both houses; and yet the spineless Democrats will pass the FISA bill soon-possibly today. Obama will vote for it, and call on us to trust that he will fix things when he’s President. Now that we know it’s not “Change that we can believe in.” Or a new way of doing politics. It’s impossible for me to be excited about more spineless moderate/conservative Democrats in power.

    Every officeholder has taken an oath to defend the constitution; and everyone of them that supports this legislation betrays that oath for crass political reasons. They have placed the needs of their party above their country.

    Vote for Obama; he’s not as bad as McCain! Vote for Democrats; they are not as bad as Republicans. Whooppppee!

  • What’s up with Gallup? It’s always been pessimistic about Obama compared to other polls. What I can’t tell is whether Gallup is inaccurate or if the other polls are.

  • Best Obama line on McCain’s Energy policy:

    “That’s not the road to smart energy independence; it’s a backwards formula for more Exxon dependence”

    OK slightly corny, but captures the essence.

  • “Obama has reportedly asked his top fundraisers to each collect five or six checks “to help Senator Clinton repay the people who provided goods and services to her campaign.”

    This is extremely clever. Few donors would want to help retire the debt of a failed candidate they didn’t support in the first place, but some would at least help to pay off the innocent vendors who simply did business with the campaign. How were they to know they’d get the shaft because so much of the campaign’s finances were paid to or wasted by fat, useless posers like Mark Penn?

    You’d already forgotten about him, hadn’t you? 😉

  • Tamalak (5):What’s up with Gallup?

    This is from one of yesterday’s threads:

    And what of the differences between the polls? Why do Newsweek and the LAT/Bloomberg polls show big leads for Obama, while Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls show modest leads? I’m happy to let the professionals tackle the explanation of statistical models and sampling, but Mark Kleiman notes that the tracking polls “assume fixed partisan proportions within the electorate, and reweight the results of their daily polls to make the sample match the assumed “true” proportions of Democratic and Republican identifiers. Neither LAT/Bloomberg nor Newsweek does that, and both show voters tilting strongly Democratic. That may explain the difference between Obama +6 (Rasmussen), Obama +3 (Gallup) and these much bigger margins.”

  • I predict that as soon as Obama announces his reaction to Heller his nationwide 15% lead will evaporate.

  • Ahcuah,

    Why? I don’t think he’s taking the unpopular side. In fact, I think in the last couple of weeks, political expediency has led him to the popular side, despite the fact that much of the left has been disappointed.

    What are we going to do?

    Homer: America, take a good look at your beloved candidates. They’re
    nothing but hideous space reptiles. [unmasks them]
    [audience gasps in terror]
    Kodos: It’s true, we are aliens. But what are you going to do about
    it? It’s a two-party system; you have to vote for one of us.
    [murmurs]
    Man1: He’s right, this is a two-party system.
    Man2: Well, I believe I’ll vote for a third-party candidate.
    Kang: Go ahead, throw your vote away.
    [Kang and Kodos laugh out loud]

  • I predict that as soon as Obama announces his reaction to Heller his nationwide 15% lead will evaporate.

    That’s a joke, right? If not I think you’ve been living in the liberal echo chamber too long. Most Americans, including most Democrats, are not in favor of strict gun control.

    Now, I’m not one of ’em. But the notion that favoring gun ownership rights is a political loser is a fantasy.

  • Obama will vote for it… -Big Deal

    I wouldn’t count on that. He’ll most likely not vote at all. So he can have some wiggle room later, just like Kyl-Lieberman.

  • Tamalak said:

    What’s up with Gallup? It’s always been pessimistic about Obama compared to other polls. What I can’t tell is whether Gallup is inaccurate or if the other polls are.

    ********************

    The Gallup poll is the most corrupt of all, and always ‘weighted’ in favor of the Repiglicans/Corporations .. by around 8 percentage points relative to their ‘methodology’. Simply go back in time and research their polls and you will always see this. For example in the last election between Kerry and Bush their ‘final’ poll has Bush winning by 8 points. So too with Bush and Gore: same result, 8 points for Bush. Right on down the line if you go back in time you will always find this result. Gallup is utterly corrupt. Why anyone pays attentions to it, including this blog, is beyond me.

  • Barrick Obama is a fake. You are all being taken in. He has no plan but to spend other people money, no fiscal responsibility, no vision, no leadership. The reason we are in all this trouble in this country is that yesterday there were no actions taken for a plan for today . Barrick’s answer to the energy problem is to take no steps today for tomorrow and the day after. Technology takes time. We need a manhattan plan for energy and we need to move on all fronts. We need to start now not just say no to this and that. All you fools that vote for Obama will see in 6 years you will not be better off. Government never runs anything well : stolen from Social Security, negative number medicare. Government never taxed itself into prosperity. All of you out there who think Obama is going to bail you out of your problems are truly deluded. You need to start making your own life happen, stop consuming, wasting, and start saving in the name of the love of your family. Democrats and Republicans are all responsible for the state of country. Wasting time pointing fingers will not get it done. Elect congressman and senators who show leadership not promise the moon and stars. We can get through this we a new attitude not old whining.

  • The polls do not mean to much. Obama won the nomination of his party by being clever and chasing delegates in states that most candidates would not waste their campaign funds trying to win over. Does anyone really think that he is going to turn the Red States he
    won in the Democratic Primary to Blue? Of course not. But while I think both Obama and McCain
    are worthless, I am always troubled by how Obama always seems to call the ideas of others gimmicks and pandering. He seems to have a real infinity to making accusations. This troubles me becuase he never seems to have any counter ideas, at least ones he did not take from another candidate. Worst that that, he makes it such a poltical
    hot potato by calling everything gimmicks and pandering that other politicians shy away from talking about or debating these issues on a national scale. So much for the “change” candidate.

  • I am always troubled by how Obama always seems to call the ideas of others gimmicks and pandering. — Dave L

    Well, they usually are. I know, it’s hard to believe that a politician is actually trying to make sense and cut through some (not all) of the false “realties” that constantly pop in and out of existence on the right, but if you give the truth a chance, I think you might come to like it. At least I did.

  • Evan Bayh (Republicrat – IN) is a worthless piece of crap who got elected & gets reelected based upon his father’s name & tons of $$$$$ to keep serious challengers away.

    He is disliked (or stronger negative emotions) by republicans and many democrats. This is in a state that has republicans & republocrats & damn few progressive democrats.

    Evan Bayh is a DLC type – say whatever you need to say politically & vote so that you never rock the boat!

    I have long maintained that if Jesus was running for president as the democratic candidate & Satan was running as the republican, it would be a close race but the republican would win. In spite of this, there is a wide preception of McCain as being a horrible choice & there is an outside chance of Obama to carry the state.

    I believe that Bayh on the Obama ticket would help carry Indiana about as much as John Edwards helped Kerry (not) carry North Carolina.

    I want Obama to select a progressive as his v.p. & not a wimp like Bayh.

  • I’ve read the energy proposals–both sides.

    I like Barack Obamas energy policy website.

    INformative.–Concise and encouraging.

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