Obama up by five … in Montana

July 3, 2008

A few weeks ago, in its first general-election ad of the year, the Obama campaign hit the airwaves in 18 states, including 14 that supported Bush/Cheney four years ago. Among the states was Montana.

Now, at first blush, this seemed like a rather foolish way to spend campaign money. Four years ago, Bush beat Kerry in Montana by 21 points. Eight years ago, Bush beat Gore in Montana by 25 points. Did the Obama campaign know something we don’t?

As a matter of fact, yes.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. […]

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Without more data, it’s hard to know if these numbers are an outlier, but given that Rasmussen showed Montana as a competitive state in April, too, the results aren’t too hard to believe.

Indeed, Eric Kleefeld reminds us that as conservative as Montana’s reputation is, this is a state that has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators.

Talk about stretching the map — I suspect the McCain campaign didn’t expect to have to worry about Montana.

Outstanding.

The 3 EVs aren’t going to be a crucial factor either way in the race to 270, but conceptually, in terms of breathing life into the 50-state strategy and shaping the media narrative, this is a big deal.

  • This is also a favor, albeit presumably unintentional, that Clinton staying the race did Obama. It made even late states meaningful, so the Democrats there got organized, got engaged, paid attention. It required the campaigns to learn the territory, staff up, and educate. Even in places like Montana and Alaska.

  • Yeah, I might be moving to Montana soon, gonna be a dental floss tycoon…

  • This is only slightly related to the subject of this post, but against the idea of Obama spending all this time on traditionally red states, I have been noticing McCain ads in Massachusetts, airing during Red Sox broadcasts. (& though I don’t watch much TV, I haven’t seen a single Obama ad.) I would guess the idea behind it is to siphon off the “belligerent lower to lower-middle-class white guy who might have trouble with Obama’s skin color” vote. Um. Good luck with that.

  • I suspect the thought of a 3rd Bush term does not play well in Montana.

    The more McCain is tied to shrub the better, here.

  • it also makes an interesting twist on the Clinton campaigns argument that Obama’s victories in small state primaries and caucuses were insignificant, because “the democrats won’t win there in the fall.” I really think, if one looks at the numbers, the dems can offer a lot to some of these interior west states, especially if the guns issue is off the table. they don’t like the war, they don’t like the debt and deficit, they don’t like Terri Shiavo government interference, and they are (becoming) keenly interested in environmental issues because they live in some of the most beautiful land in this country. the republican party could and should become the regional party of the south and the plains.

  • zhak @5 — It’s likely that McCain advertises during Red Sox games in Massachusetts because those ads also reach New Hampshire.

  • We here in Montana love Obama, and he and his family are spending the 4th of July here in Butte, Montana. Barack isnt a phoney “hero” like McCain-Bush and his second wife doesnt fit in with anyones “values”. President Obama !

  • As there are already 2 Zappa references, I must add my 3rd!

    I’m a Republican and this is my wife
    We’re frosting the constitution with a paper knife
    All what we got here aint Merican made
    Its real cheap but nicely displayed

    My sis lives in MT, I am working on her hard!, I am going out there this summer, fishing, camping, shooting guns! Fun for the JoyZeeBoy!

  • TR (#1)
    While I agree that Montana’s 3 EVs are not likely to swing the election we should never discount their value. If the election turns out to be closer than we wold like, then 3 EVs could turn the tide. Every vote counts. That’s one of the messages of the 50 state strategy.

  • I’d really, really love it if Obama could knock some of those red states to our side. Not only because — obviously — I prefer a Dem president to a Repub one. But also because it would a) validate Dean’s 50 state strategy and b) at the same time poke a large hole in DLC’s garbage bag of siege mentality (hold onto what we have).

    Living here in southwestern Virginia I have been irked by that attitude for years; you’d have thought we weren’t worth fighting for. Very demoralising altogether. With what Dean’s been doing — and now Obama — it’s like we’ve been granted a second chance.

  • Nice news.

    The Obama campaign has a petition up on the website that you can sign to tell him you want him to live up to his original promise to oppose retroactive immunity on FISA. Please take the time to do this. I have to agree with Markos, that this is pretty interesting – that a candidate would put up space on his website for people who oppose him on an important issue. So let’s take the opportunity to let him know what we think.

  • Continuing the theme…

    I’m gonna find me a horse
    Just about this big
    An’ ride him all along the border line
    With a pair of heavy-duty
    Zircon-encrusted tweezers in my hand
    Every other wrangler would say
    I was mighty grand
    By myself I wouldn’t
    Have no boss
    But I’d be raisin’ my lonely Dental Floss

  • Oh, sure, IT. I only meant that the narrative value of Montana going for Obama would outweigh the actual electoral value, not that the electoral value itself would be meaningless. Far from it.

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