I wasn’t especially excited when Newsweek said Barack Obama enjoyed a 15-point lead over John McCain three weeks ago, and I’m not especially discouraged now that Newsweek shows Obama leading by three now.
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama’s glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month’s NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama’s rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience — an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who’d slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama’s reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
The news wasn’t all bad for Obama. The same poll showed that 61% of his backers support him “strongly,” while for McCain, the numbers are reversed — 61% of his backers don’t support him “strongly.”
The number to keep an eye on, though, was the switch among independents: “In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June’s NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.”
This, frankly, seems hard to believe. I know the media/McCain attacks about Obama’s alleged “flip-flops” have been an aggressive part of the discourse, but it’s just not realistic to think there’s been this big a swing among independents in such a short time.
Indeed, if the Newsweek poll felt like an outlier in June because Obama’s lead appeared too big, this latest Newsweek poll also feels like an outlier because his lead is too small.
The latest Gallup numbers, for example, show Obama leading by six, 48% to 42%, his biggest margin in a month.
And the latest CNN Poll of polls has Obama up by eight, 49% to 41%. “Obama’s lead has grown a bit over the course of the past month. It is still relatively slim, but it is certainly solid,” CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib said. “The burden is on McCain to find a way to shake things up as we enter the traditional summer doldrums.”
And the latest Pew Research Center poll has Obama up by eight, 48% to 40%.
The moral of the story: polls are going to show some fluctuations. Don’t take them too seriously.
Post Script: And by the way, the same Newsweek poll added this:
Twelve percent of voters surveyed said that Obama was sworn in as a United States senator on a Qur’an, while 26 percent believe the Democratic candidate was raised as a Muslim and 39 percent believe he attended an Islamic school as a child growing up in Indonesia. None of these things is true.
To my mind, there are only a couple of ways Obama can lose in November. The preponderance of foolish people who believe nonsense is one of them.