Obama enjoys steady lead in national polls, scores big on economy

There was a modest slowdown in national polls around the 4th of July holiday, but it seems outlets are making up for lost time with plenty of new data for observers to pore over.

The latest WaPo/ABC poll, for example, shows Barack Obama up by a relatively comfortable margin, bolstered by a huge edge on economic issues, but John McCain continues to fare well on foreign policy, reality notwithstanding.

Sen. Barack Obama holds his biggest advantage of the presidential campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation’s ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race competitive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, the Democrat has a lead of 50 percent to 42 percent over Republican Sen. John McCain among registered voters nationwide, lifted by a big edge among women, and he has also regained an edge among political independents. But it is Obama’s 19-point lead on the economy that has become a particularly steep challenge for McCain.

Economic concerns continue to eclipse other issues, with half the country saying the economy will be “extremely important” to their vote. Gasoline and energy prices, which voters rarely mentioned at the start of the year, come in just behind. The Iraq war, which was again the subject of direct engagement between Obama and McCain yesterday, ranks third. A cluster of domestic issues, including education, health care and Social Security, ranked behind the war, as did the issue of terrorism.

McCain leads Obama on who would make a good commander in chief, who knows more about world affairs, who’s better able to combat terrorism, and who’s better suited to deal with an unexpected major crisis. On handling Iraq and Iran, the two are about tied. Obama, meanwhile, enjoys sizable leads over McCain on pretty much every domestic issue I can think of, and who would do more to improve the country’s image abroad.

And on the issue that I’ve been talking about for a while, “More than 4 in 10 Americans said they thought McCain’s age would hurt him in the White House.”

The latest NYT/CBS poll shows Obama leading McCain by six, 45% to 39%, but the accompanying article emphasized a different angle.

Americans are sharply divided by race heading into the first election in which an African-American will be a major-party presidential nominee, with blacks and whites holding vastly different views of Senator Barack Obama, the state of race relations and how black Americans are treated by society, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

The results of the poll, conducted against the backdrop of a campaign in which race has been a constant if not always overt issue, suggested that Mr. Obama’s candidacy, while generating high levels of enthusiasm among black voters, is not seen by them as evidence of significant improvement in race relations.

Oddly enough, the Obama campaign took a closer look at the exact same poll, reviewed the exact same data, and came to a very different conclusion. In fact, the campaign sent Greg Sargent a critique of the story, and found that the Times article “omitted … some straightforward points from their data,” including the fact that white voters prefer Obama on which candidate “cares about people like them” and is better able to “bringing about change.”

Instead of the “racial divisions” the Times article emphasizes, the poll numbers show Obama’s and McCain’s favorable ratings among whites nearly identical.

My favorite bit of Obama team snark in response to the NYT’s misrepresentation of data (Adam Nagourney again): “‘Racial dissension’ around Mrs. Obama’s 24% favorable rating among whites is an extremely odd description given that Mrs. McCain’s favorable rating among white voters is 20%.”

  • I wonder what percentage of the voters surveyed have heard Obama and McCain speak for more than three minutes? I’ll bet it’s pretty low.

    The more people hear Obama speak (at length), the more they like him. I’d like to see some numbers on that, because so far all the media has shown us is a few snippets here and there, so most people have only that to go on.

  • One more thing: It must be killing the Republicans that their two selling points are diametrically opposed to each other: On the one hand, there’s a big war on, and we gotta fuggit about the economical junk and elect the manly man who’s got military credentials or else we’re all gonna DIE, on the other hand the Iraq occupation war is going so well that we won’t need to punish Bush’s buddies who voted for it and supported it.

  • How any breathing American who watches TV can think a man (McCain)who can’t remember what he voted for or against;who cannot discern between the Sunni’s and Shia’s; remember that Czechoslovakia is now two separate countries; or what what he last said about his position on Iraq & Afghanistan would make a better Commander -in -chief is beyond my comprehension. It seems to me that statistic is skewed.

  • ml johnston

    I’d add to what you said that even George W Bush knows Czechoslovakia is no longer a country, and knew that before he was even president. I’d say that’s pretty low.

  • I wonder what will happen to the polls when these two debate. The difference will be shocking (in several ways). McCain has done an about face on so many issues its difficult for him to answer questions now….that is if he was able to articulate his ideas under any circumstance. He’s seems to be flounderingly in over his head. His weird pronouncements (“I know how to win wars”) are backed by nothing. We know is temper is a problem. I would be shocked if he doesn’t come across terribly in the debates. Obama needs to have the stomach to go for the juggular in the debates. He can do it in a civil way, but he can’t play nice. There’s no doubt the moderators will hammer Obama on his supposed change of positions (real or imagined). He must answer everytime by shining the spotlight back on McCain’s flagrant switches.

  • I agree with SaintZak – the debates will prove crucial. I have a feeling the contrast between the eloquent, articulate, and savvy Obama with “Green Screen McCain” will be painfully obvious. I would think that the proportion of folks who think Obama will make a better commander in chief will rise significantly once they see McClueless try and muddle his way through a tough question.

  • Are you going to do a post on the NYT poll discussed in today’s paper indicating a wide racial divide between the candidates’ supporters?

    Why not read this one?

  • Are you going to do a post on the NYT poll discussed in today’s paper indicating a wide racial divide between the candidates’ supporters?

    Yeah! And then you should start a blog called the Carpetbagger Report!

  • I didn’t mean to be snotty! I guess it did sound that way, but I meant it as gentle teasing. Sorry about that.

  • Having read Obama’s response on TPM I feel a lot better about the NYT poll, but it’s just odd that only 31% and 34% of white voters have favorable views of Obama and McCain, respectively. Whatever happened to all of the enthusiasm about this race that we thought existed? Maybe not so much among white voters, apparently.

  • I only allow myself one emoticon a month, Dale. I used July’s on an attractive man on another blog. It was worth it to now have to rely on cold, hard words.

  • The more than 4 in 10 Americans who think McCain’s age would be a problem can remember something important, although it’s politically incorrect to admit that you do — namely, that Reagan was showing obvious symptoms of Alzheimer’s Syndrome before the end of his second term, and that it probably contributed significantly to his complicity in the Iran-Contra bungle.

    By the way, don’t be callin’ me ageist for that, because I’m no spring chicken myself.

  • the poll numbers show Obama’s and McCain’s favorable ratings among whites nearly identical.

    wow, if journalism were brain surgery all their patients would die.

    Well, Maria, you could always use the old parentheticals. (BIG tickle)

    I don’t like emoticons too much (especially the bright yellow graphics ones) but sometimes they’re worth it just to lighten up my words a little. I consider anything written to me that doesn’t end with “, asshole.” to be a kind remark. : – )

  • via Swampland, TIME mag’s datameister Jackson Dykman: “I too was really struck by the NYT’s characterization of its own poll. I read the full poll first and then the story when they posted it last night. I’ve rarely seen a story so wildly off from the actual data on which it is based. Aside from point C in the Obama response (which is true and basically negates the story), the premise of the story is, well, utter nonsense. Are we really supposed to think that because a black man has become the Democratic nominee in recent weeks that he somehow should have cured (or markedly improved) race relations in this country? This is just a silly premise, yet the story thrust of the story seems to be shock and surprise that the mere fact of Obama’s candidacy hasn’t reversed—or obliterated—the slight increase in racial tensions in this country over the past 8 years.”
    read the rest here
    http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/07/obama_and_race.html

  • Right, the premise makes no sense. What next, they are going to criticize Obama for not curing cancer?

  • I am sure that Obama’s trip to Europe will be downplayed on the US media, they did not fully cover the story of the hundreds of thousands of protesters that were there to greet George Bush.What a contrast – other countries actually like Obama, other countries governments (Europe) even listen to the will of the people, and the people there do not support Bush. Hopefully Obama will get a little time to visit Moneygall, County Offaly, Ireland, where his family came from in the 179 0’s, and where his ancestors records are. As a Celt, I am proud of his roots.

  • Anyone voting Republican after 8 years under the Bush regime should be evaluated for mental illness.

    Since 2001…..American does torture/ makesunilateral illegal wars / detention for anyone coming from the outside, for valid or invalid reasons/ bad economy/ hatred worldwide against us/ abolition on laws for polution, human rights, animal rights and so on….
    Obama should be at 90%……..people need to wake up.

  • I wish the media would show the truth!!!! The media is all democratic, so as a republican, I have to go on line and read about McCain its crazy!!!! The money being spent….I find it interesting that McCain isn’t using our tax dollars for all the adds and, trying to buy media time!!! Look McCain has a brain, Obama would do great at a mercedes dealership!!!! or helping Jim baker start up a new PTL, Obama has missed his calling!!!

  • I wish the media would show the truth!!!! The media is all democratic, so as a republican, I have to go on line and read about McCain its crazy!!!! The money being spent….I find it interesting that McCain isn’t using our tax dollars for all the adds and, trying to buy media time!!! Look McCain has a brain, Obama would do great at a mercedes dealership!!!! or helping Jim baker start up a new PTL, Obama has missed his calling!!!

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