Once in a while, Bob Novak can really cause a stir. Take this report from last night, for example.
Sources close to Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign are suggesting he will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week while Sen. Barack Obama is getting the headlines on his foreign trip. The name of McCain’s running mate has not been disclosed, but Mitt Romney has led the speculation recently.
Now, it would be exceedingly unusual for the McCain campaign to do this. As a rule, the party whose convention comes first would name the running mate first. For that matter, the VP selection is generally announced around the time of the convention, and the Republican National Convention doesn’t begin until September — more than five weeks away.
Such an announcement would, however, shake up the political landscape quite a bit, and probably help McCain undercut media coverage of Barack Obama’s international trip.
So, how likely is this? Jonathan Martin reports that the McCain campaign has “narrowed his vice-presidential possibilities,” and conceivably could make a decision this week, but sources close to the campaign said McCain is “likely to hold off.”
In fact, as it turns out, McCain’s team seems to be relishing the fact that the mere possibility of a VP announcement is helping generate some interest in the campaign’s activities. One Republican source told Martin these rumors are “a smart feint,” suggesting this was a coordinated leak, not word of an actual pending announcement. (To further tease reporters, a close McCain aide told reporters last night, “We have no announcements today,” as if word could come at any time.)
So, what’s going to happen?
Obviously, only a handful of McCain insiders know for sure, but Rudy Giuliani said this morning that we won’t hear an announcement this week, and CNN reported, “Another Republican source involved in top-level McCain campaign meetings — including senior level discussions of the VP search process — tells John King that ‘No. It’ll be closer to the convention and after Obama picks his.'”
That would make sense, but it’s worth remembering that McCain will have limited windows of opportunity to make a big splash with this news. The Olympics begin on August 8, and the campaigns will probably be reluctant to compete with an international event. The day after the Olympics end, the Democratic convention begins. Four days after the Dems’ convention ends, the Republican convention begins.
So, McCain could make the announcement this week (and compete with Obama’s trip), next week (before the Olympics), or the more traditional period before the Republican convention.
Two more angles to consider. First, the McCain campaign will have to be careful not to bury its own story here. They’re going to want to make as big a splash as possible, and competing with any major news story seems like a very bad idea. Noam Scheiber noted the risk of an announcement this week, for example: “[W]hat if they had a veep announcement and nobody came? What if, instead of stepping on Obama’s trip, the trip massively stepped on the announcement? I don’t think they could at all be confident this wouldn’t happen, which obviously advises against doing it.”
And second, all of the scuttlebutt at this point seems to be focused on Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal, and McCain will meet with the latter tomorrow in New Orleans.
Stay tuned.