Defying expectations, low-wage workers prefer Obama
For quite a while, there were certain trends that political observers were simply supposed to accept as fact: Barack Obama would struggle to win support from Latino voters. And Jewish voters. And working-class, low-income voters. These were obvious “truths” that “everyone” knew.
Except none of these observations are holding up well. Obama is doing very well with Latino voters, Jewish voters, and according to a new Washington Post report, working-class, low-income voters.
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation’s low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new national poll.
Obama’s advantage is attributable largely to overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics. But even among white workers — a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November — Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.
Let’s not brush past this point too quickly — among low-income whites, Obama leads McCain by 10. To be sure, about one in six of the white workers remains uncommitted, but at least for now, Obama seems to have a sizable lead with a constituency that was rumored to be a lost cause up until fairly recently.
Nearly two-thirds of the white workers surveyed want the government to make lower gas prices a “top priority,” something McCain pitched earlier this year in advocating for a suspension of the federal gas tax. One respondent was particularly clear on this point: “I’ll vote for whoever can bring the price of gas down,” said Brian Levesque, 25, a social worker from Lansdale, Pa.
But slightly more, seven in 10, say government should focus on helping people like them find more affordable health insurance, a core component of Obama’s campaign. Just over four in 10 favor placing a top priority on tax cuts or on creating jobs through an expansion of public works projects.
Overall, the survey suggests that Obama’s economic appeals have the most resonance with white workers who are under the greatest financial stress. He leads by 19 percentage points among those white workers who feel “very insecure” financially; that is more than double his advantage among those in the group who feel better off.
Greg Sargent concluded, “If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a ‘McCain’s working class whites problem’ meme anytime soon?”
Given the data, it’s hardly an unreasonable argument to make.
jen
says:Since so many on the liberal blogs were ready to dismiss the low wage folks – who needs unions? who needs poor whites? – this is a refreshing piece of news. Maybe being cast as a celebrity is in fact backfiring.
KP
says:What demographic is McCain winning? It seems like everything is in Obama’s favor but the national polls put them pretty close (I know state polls are showing a large Obama lead in electoral votes, but I am talking about the just national numbers)
BuzzMon
says:What kind of vehicle do you think Brian Levesque drives?
Racer X
says:“If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a ‘McCain’s working class whites problem’ meme anytime soon?”
Yeah, we’ll hear about that after we hear about how he dumped his first wife for the beer heiress half his age, who he now feels totally comfortable calling a “cunt” in front of his media buddies, who of course kept that little tidbit to themselves.
OkieFromMuskogee
says:Following up on KP’s comment – with Obama exceeding expectations in so many demographics, why does he have such a small lead in the overall polls?
jimBOB
says:“I’ll vote for whoever can bring the price of gas down,” said Brian Levesque, 25, a social worker from Lansdale, Pa.
Who’s going to break the news to these folks that the free ride’s over, we’re past peak oil production, and from here on out energy gets a lot more expensive, no matter what anyone does or promises. Also that this isn’t entirely a bad thing, as all the carbon being release by fossil fuels is altering the world’s climate, and not in a good way.
So many people oblivious to basic reality.
jimBOB
says:with Obama exceeding expectations in so many demographics, why does he have such a small lead in the overall polls?
This is the wrong question. To see why I reccommend this diary as well as the links it contains.
We don’t elect presidents based on a national popular vote; we use the electoral college. Obama’s lead there is large and increasing.
ROTFLMLiberalAO
says:Not in McCain’s press conference
Will we be hearing a ‘McCain’s working class whites problem’ meme anytime soon?
Well since we can’t get the media to ask McCain where he is going to store the waste from his 45 new nuclear power reactors, or whose backyard those reactors are going to sit in…. probably not.
McCain is a man of substance. No need threfore, for the media therefore to pester him with detailed policy questions about his well-thought out plans. That would be a cockamamie thing to do…
So in the past few weeks, McCain has experienced an epiphany and decided there should be some sort of international repository for the fuel that he had so long wanted to come here [Yucca Mtn.]? This is believable?
And such a cockamamie solution, too.
Steve
says:Finding a viable alternative to oil would make the price of gasoline meaningless—because gasoline itself would become meaningless—and the oil companies would become both meaningless and powerless.
The question is: Which candidate is more likely to bring about that scenario?
Certainly not McCain. He gets a multi-million dollar bribe from the oil companies, on the promise to give them another 4 billion in taxpayer-funded handouts.
Once they’re finally out of power, maybe we can just send these Bushylvanians into exile….
TomB
says:I can hear Republican strategists now saying in response to this news…
“Low income people have always been a Democratic constiuency, and their policies are determined to expand this constiuncy. That’s not a policy for America.”
Prup (aka Jim Benton)
says:jimBOB: very good points, and remember, Obama’s been resting up for the main campaign, we haven’t even had the conventions — let’s all send the Republicans more lime-green cardboard — or the debates.
I’ll still take bets on Obama winning at least 438 EVs.
John
says:Umm… Why does anyone think this is “defying” expectations? Minorities vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Always have. The poor vote overwhelmingly Democrat as it’s in their best interest to see more social services paid for by someone else.
So what exactly is Obama “defying” when he wins the traditional Democrat demographic? I swear, sometimes the blatant bias of “reporters” is dumbfounding. What’s even more, none of you seem to be willing to admit it.
The Answer is Orange
says:Obama should send the GOP a thank you note.* Due to their relentless attempts to make sure their rich pals are happy they’ve increased the population lower income Americans. 1% of the voting population (minus the Hiltons) does not a winning campaign strategy make.
*And a tire gage. The Str8TalkXpress is running on its rims.
Kropotkin
says:#12 – These were the groups that were supposed to be Clinton’s base if she were nominated. Her argument was that they would support her but not Obama. Without the Hispanic vote in 2004, Bush’s handlers would not have been in position to steal the election. If McCain expects to pull a Bush “miracle” he will need the vote to be much closer than it is. He cannot afford to have these groups vote overwhelmingly for Obama.
Big Blue
says:I was just going over these numbers this morning. It’s not just the working class supporting Obama, it’s also the fact that he’s massively exceeding Kerry’s 2004 pull of various Demographics. He does better among women, latinos, and the working class. He’s even got McCain down to a ridiculous 1% support among African Americans.
I went through the trouble of comparing all of these numbers to the 2004 exit polls. You can read my thoughts on the matter (which are too lengthy to post in a thread) here:
http://www.theleftanchor.com/2008/08/the-numbers-don.html
libra
says:“I’ll vote for whoever can bring the price of gas down,” said Brian Levesque, 25, a social worker from Lansdale, Pa.
Then I can see him sitting it out, on Nov 4, since *neither* of the candidates can bring the price of gas down (no matter what McCain may promise to the contrary). It’s as Steve (@9) says; it’s not who can bring the price down, it’s who can — through a *comprehensive* energy plan — make us less dependent on it.
And McCain has neither the brain nor the motivation — not to mention the energy (no pun intended) — to do that.
leo
says:A “working joe” myself, I can’t imagine myself having a beer with Sen. McCain. I mean, I don’t think he’d be able to finish it without serious indigestion or some other life-threatening malady.
Bruno
says:the article said:……but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system,…
That has more to do with the fact that the low-income voters, are usually also low-information voters, or don’t have the ‘smarts’ to understand Obama’s and McCain’s policies.
Maybe they understand McCain’s simplistic policy, because it really isn’t a policy at all, therefor they know it won’t fix the problem.
Maybe they don’t understand Obama’s policy because it is to complicated and has too much detail, therefor they assume it won’t fix the problem.
It seems to me that Obama needs to take some time and ‘explain’ to the ‘little people’ what he plans to do, using ‘little’ words they can understand.
Virgo
says:Even though Obama seems to be getting more of the low-wage workers, blacks, hispanic, etc. votes, that doesn’t mean he’ll still win. Are there more of those people than there are the average american? And if so, which way will the average american vote?