Monday’s campaign round-up

August 4, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Remember the extraordinarily heated fight over Democratic convention delegates from Florida’s and Michigan’s non-binding primaries? Well, it’s been resolved: “Now Senator Barack Obama, the party’s presumptive nominee, has asked the credentials committee to let the two states have full voting rights at the convention after all. The request is likely to be granted since it comes from the all-but-certain nominee, who now controls the party apparatus.”

* The ridiculous McCain campaign ad featuring Britney Spears and Paris Hilton was not just a “little fun” on the part of the presumptive Republican nominee: “[I]t looks like McCain is sinking a significant proportion of his current ad spending into it. Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, tells us that McCain is spending over $140,000 a day to run the spot. That accounts for roughly a third of his current overall TV ad spending, Tracey says.” The Spears/Hilton ad is running in 11 target states.

* In VP news, House Minority Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is among the Republicans receiving a “thorough vetting” by McCain’s search committee. Cantor also appeared on a McCain campaign conference call this morning — on which he attacked Obama over energy policy — presumably as some kind of audition.

* CBS News is trying to go after Barack Obama over the size of his campaign airplane. The criticism really doesn’t make any sense.

* Gallup’s daily tracking poll shows Obama up by one (45% to 44%). Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows McCain up by one (47% to 46%).

* Most of the buzz from the last several days suggested McCain may pick his running mate any day now. Jonathan Martin, however, reports that the campaign may push off an announcement until after Obama unveils his VP pick.

* Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama in Alaska by five, 44% to 39%.

* Research 2000 shows McCain leading Obama in North Carolina by four, 47% to 43%.

* SurveyUSA shows McCain leading Obama in Missouri by five, 49% to 44%.

* Siena shows Obama leading McCain in New York by 18, 44% to 26%.

* The Tulsa World/KOTV shows McCain leading Obama in Oklahoma by 32, 56% to 24%.

* Speaker Pelosi still likes the idea of Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) becoming Obama’s running mate.

* And for health reasons, Sen. Edward Kennedy probably won’t make it to the Democratic National Convention, but he’ll have a presence there anyway.

August 4, 2008 at 12:10 pm

The ridiculous McCain campaign ad featuring Britney Spears and Paris Hilton was not just a “little fun” on the part of the presumptive Republican nominee

I don’t know. McCain has always had a vicious, mean-spirited sense of humor. The entire month of July was probably tremendous fun for him.

Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama in Alaska by five, 44% to 39%.

* Research 2000 shows McCain leading Obama in North Carolina by four, 47% to 43%.

* SurveyUSA McCain leading Obama in Missouri by five, 49% to 44%.

This is actually good news for Obama – these are all states where Bush won both times by substantial margins. These numbers are all within striking distance in the next 90 days (90 days to the election, folks!!!!) A lot more “contrast” ads that hit McCain on substance like the Big Oil ad, and we can see this margin flipping.

That vicious sense of humor is another characteristic in common with Bush.

Unfortunately for Cantor on the same call Douglas Holtz-Eakin criticized Senator Obama for voting in favor of the 2005 Energy Act. A bill that Cantor also voted for along with Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman. Oops!

Here’s a recent story about McCain’s new plane from The Washingtron Post. Why is his big, snazzy new plane good and Obama’s big, snazzy new plane is bad?

Would Cantor be the pick if Obama goes for Kaine? Or is it an attempt to hold onto Virginia because it’s trending blue? I guess I don’t see what exactly Cantor brings to the table for McCain.

That doddering old fool shouldn’t be within 10 points of Obama.

Have Americans really forgotten how to apply standards?

What is the matter with the USA?

Tom C: Exactly. It’s comments like these that make your occasional temper-losses bearable.

But one other thing should be noticed. Running for President is hard physical work, exhausting and draining. (And, of course, double that for BEING President. Look at any President when elected and four years later and you’ll see how it ages you — a point that somebody should mention in relation to McCain’s age.) Obama has been, relatively, ‘taking it easy’ since June, building up his strength. He’ll be ready for the last two frenetic months.

Meanwhile, McCain has been running a “Christian” campaign — ‘whenever two or more of you gather together in my name, I will appear.’ He’s going to be worn out by the end of September, and it will show.

How can anybody who looks like Charlie Chaplin like McCain does be taken seriously anyway. You’ve got to be kidding

Bring on the debates!

Whatever happened to the monetary disadvantage that the Republicans and McCain had? I’m seeing as many if not more McCain ads as Obama’s.

America is waking up to the realization that the newbie just might win the White House if we’re not careful. Dems should be way, way up by now. Say hello to President McCain.

A bunch of reporters are in the press area at a rally for John McCain in Panama City, Florida, on Friday. Who’s the only one asked to leave? The only black journalist there. Say again Senator about ‘race card’?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/2/141655/8118/37/561349

Another good polling piece:

Obama First Candidate Charged With Being “Too Presidential,” and Some Numbers to Brighten Up Your Monday Morning And, no, I didn’t write this…just found it interesting. 🙂

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/obama-first-candidate-charged.php

The question was asked above what Cantor could bring McCain. Here’s part of it. Cantor’s the only Jewish representative in the House.

“Cantor is a supporter of strong US-Israel relations, cosponsoring legislation that would cut off all U.S. taxpayer aid to the Palestinian Authority and another bill calling for an end to taxpayer aid to the Palestinians until they stop unauthorized excavations on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.[5] Responding to a claim by the State Department that the United States provides no “direct” aid to the Palestinian Authority, Cantor stated that United States sends about $75 million in aid annually to the Palestinian Authority, which is administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development. Cantor also stated that Congress approved a three-year package of $400 million in aid for the Palestinian Authority in 2000.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Cantor

Here’s his voting record.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/c001046/key-votes/

Another point on the polling data. There is a substantial overlap between ‘the white working class’ and the ‘religious right.’ This repeats my point that McCain isn’t able to reach them — and they make up much of the Republican GOTV effort. (I wish they’d also poll on ‘enthusiam’ or ask something like
Have you, or will you
Contributed money
Volunteered
Spoken to your neighbors arguing for your choice?
(Ideally there would be the same question about the last election.)

A point to remember about polls – land line numbers are the only numbers being used. Today many people, especially the younger generation, only have cell phones. That should be in Obamas favor.

I love how you dismiss the poll numbers when they don’t favor the Obmassiah, did you know that Dukakis had a 17 point lead at this point in the election cycle, Kerry was ahead by at least 4 points versus the encumbant Bush, the one everyone HATES.. and yet Obama is barely breaking even in one poll, and is LOSING in another. And the Rethugs haven’t even begun their smear tactics yet, WOW!

God damn Republicans are going to win again, and all because Obama was forced down our throats by Dean/Pelosi/Brazile.

Whatever happened to the monetary disadvantage that the Republicans and McCain had? I’m seeing as many if not more McCain ads as Obama’s. — edr, @11

Two things. One is that, of the 4 “legs” of the “chair” on each side, the cash distribution is entirely different. On the Republican side, they have 3 short legs — House, Senate and Presidential — and one long one — RNC. We are the other way around — our Congressional, Senatorial and Presidential campaigns are, financially, very healthy, but DNC is not. On top of which, while RNC is focusing *strictly* on helping McCain, DNC (Howard Dean) is focusing on helping the party as a whole (the 50-state strategy). And Obama doesn’t really need any financial help at this point.

The second thing is the difference in financing. McCain has accepted public financing for general. He has to spend all the money he’s accumulated for the primaries before the Convention; he can’t roll it over into the general. Obama is the other way around; the more he saves now, the bigger the total after the Convention, especially should donations dwindle. For him, it makes sense to husband his resources now and go out, guns blazing, *after* the Convention.

At least, that’s my “take”on the situation.

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Cantor’s the only Jewish representative in the House. — ICTB, @16

Surely not? The only *Republican* Jewish Rep, maybe, but not *he only one in the whole House. Rahm Emanuel is Jewish and I’m sure there are others.

Can we please just ignore tracking polls. I don’t think there is a more meaningless exercise than looking at tracking polls to judge the state of the race. Whether it’s Obama up by 9 as he was around a week ago or down by a point today it’s worthless

For example, I specifically remember that it was during May that Obama for the first time started polling ahead of McCain in virtually every poll for the month:

CBS/NY Times: Obama, 11 points
USA Today/Gallup: McCain, 1 point
Ipsos: Obama, 4 points
LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama, 6 points
NPR: Obama, 5 points
Quinnipiac: Obama, 7 points
ABC/Washington Post: Obama, 7 points
Reuters/Zogby (including Ralph Nader & Bob Barr): Obama, 10 points
GW-Battleground poll: Obama, 2 points
Investor’s Business Daily: Obama, 11 points
Newsweek: Tie

Yet the tracking polls on May 25th had McCain up by it 1 and 2 points respectively.

More recently, how many times did Obama go to around a 10 point lead against Clinton in the tracking polls the last month and a half or so, only to see it disappear for no reason within 5 days or so.

I just don’t get excited over anything these tracking poll say.

Here were Obama’s polling numbers for May (Regular Polls, not tracking polls):

It was the first time he had polled ahead of McCain for virtually every poll for an entire month.

Yet on may 25th he was loosing in both tracking polls by about a point or two.

It’s the same thing here. Over the last 6 National polls (Not Tracking Polls, REAL polls) Obama is averaging an 8 point lead:

Qunnipiac: Obama +9
Reuters: Obama +7
Washington post (Regsitered Voters-4Way): Obama +10, (2 Way): Obama +8
NBC/WSJ: (4-way): Obama +12, (2-Way): Obama +6
Research 2000 (4-way): Obama +12
CNN/Opinion Research 7/31/08: Obama +7

Moreover the composites at Pollster.com when added up put him at 336 in the electoral college.

Please Can we just ignore tracking polls.

Can’t we just put up a good fight, as if we’re coming from behind, regardless of what the Polls say.

Let’s just ignore them and give it all we got. wouldn’t it be nice to fight, thinking we’re barely scraping by, and then on election evening, all the major TV stations state around 8PM Eastern time, that the race if already over, even though the counting is still going on. Result: landslide for Obama.

Democrats are notorious to easy off the moment they feel they’re a few points ahead. The complacency is embarrassing. Give it your best! ALL the time. Don’t slack because it ‘looks’ like you’re winning.

Some of that so-called winning is the media playing you, but adjusting the numbers just enough to make you think it is close.

Ignore all the polls and canvas for the extra votes we need. It is better to find out that we didn’t need that extra 1 million votes to get Obama over the top, than to realize we SHOULD have done more. IF we ONLY knew… the regular wining we heard after 2000 and 2004.

Do NOT make the same mistake.

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