It’s far too easy to overreact to the national polls as they’re released. Just 10 days ago, Dems were inconsolable and Karl Rove was renewing his DC lease for another four years after an ABC/Washington Post poll showed Bush’s approval rating holding steady at 51%, despite weeks of news that should have sent the number downward.
For those who were looking for a morale boost in the Post poll’s wake, I offer the latest CBS/New York Times poll. It’s chuck full of good news for those of us who are less-than-fond of the current administration.
* Approval rating — 46% of respondents said they approve of Bush’s job performance, 47% said they disapprove. These are the lowest numbers of Bush’s presidency in a CBS/NYT poll and the first time the disapproval number has exceeded the approvals.
* General favorability — When asked for their general opinion on Bush, 38% said they have a favorable opinion of him (the lowest of his presidency); 43% said they have a negative opinion (the highest of his presidency).
* Election Day match-up — Kerry leads Bush in a head-to-head race, 46%-44%. (Bush leads by 2% once Nader is included.)
* War in Iraq — The public no longer believes the U.S. did “the right thing” by starting the war in Iraq. 47% aid it had, down from 58% a month earlier and 63% in December.
* Bush’s handling of Iraq — Only 41% of respondents said they approve of Bush’s handling of the war, down from 49% last month and 59% in December.
None of this is a stunning surprise, and it’s far too early to make any sweeping conclusions about what these numbers mean. But the results are encouraging for one key reason: the Bush campaign spent $40 million in their own campaign version of “shock and awe” so that Bush wouldn’t be in this position right now. It didn’t work.