It’s no secret that this year’s presidential campaign is not exactly a national campaign in a literal sense. No matter how you look at the race or which candidate you support, at least half of the states will not be targeted. They won’t be bombarded with ads, they won’t have frequent visits from candidates, their mailboxes won’t full of direct mail, and pollsters won’t be spending much time on them. For all intents and purposes, their electoral votes have already been distrubuted.
Depending on your source, there are between 16 or 18 states that really matter (aka “battleground” states) based on 2000 performance, historical trends, and recent polling. The generally-accepted 17 includes Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
To its credit, however, the Kerry campaign is looking to expand the list a bit to include two more — Colorado and Louisiana.
The Massachusetts senator has been airing moderate levels of ads on local broadcast channels in select media markets in 17 battleground states. But starting later this week, he will run new 60-second ads in all media markets in those states, plus in Louisiana and Colorado, according to Democratic sources familiar with the buy.
The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the two new ads — one that focuses on aspects of Kerry’s life such as his Vietnam service and another that talks primarily about his top issues – also will run on national cable networks.
Stephanie Cutter, a Kerry campaign spokeswoman, declined to comment Sunday, but confirmed that a major launch of biographical ads is coming soon. Later Sunday, the campaign announced that it would hold a news briefing Monday for reporters on a “significant new general election ad buy.”
Bush won Louisiana and Colorado in 2000, but Kerry advisers believe the Democrat has a shot at grabbing the nine electoral votes available in each of the two states this year. Bush has not run ads on local stations in either state.
I think this is a great idea.
There’s obviously no point in spending limited resources in a state you’re certain to lose. It’s unlikely, for example, to see Kerry put up a serious ad campaign in Texas.
But the trick is finding states that might appear uncompetitive but may be friendlier territory than previously thought. Louisiana and Colorado would seem to fit the bill.
In fact, I’m not sure how Louisiana became an obvious “Red” state in the first place. Sure, it tends to be conservative, but Dems have shown they can compete there. It’s one of only a few states in the nation with a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, and Dem majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Clinton won the state twice, with an even larger margin the second time than the first. There’s no reason the Dems should just give up on the state entirely and it’s great that Kerry is throwing some money its way.
Colorado may seem like a stranger choice, but I’m glad to see it anyway. The GOP has carried Colorado in eight of the last nine elections — Clinton narrowly lost in ’96 but won it in ’92 — and Bush didn’t have to fight too hard for his eight-point victory in 2000.
That said, recent polls show the state to be quite competitive. A Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago showed Bush with a five-point lead, which isn’t half-bad considering the state’s history. The Gadflyer’s Tom Schaller mentioned Colorado as one of several western pick-ups the Dems need to consider and I have to agree. The early success of Ken Salazar’s Senate campaign shows that the state is at least open to backing a Dem statewide, a point which Kerry is wisely taking advantage of.
Kerry’s launching a new ad-buy with bio pieces that will help introduce him to voters. At this point, Bush is ignoring Louisiana and Colorado, assuming they’re both safe states for him. It’ll be interesting to see if polls show the race tightening in either of these states after Kerry’s ads hit the airwaves.