New poll tells us very little about Democratic presidential primary field

Since January, none of the major polling firms or media outlets have done national surveys on the Democratic presidential primary field. With news of the war in Iraq dominating the news, and Democratic candidates campaigning less, there simply hasn’t been much need.

This week, however, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was released showing the candidate preferences of people who said they would likely be voting in a Democratic presidential primary.

Here are the results, with an indication of whether the candidate’s support has gone up or down since the last primary poll from January.

Joe Lieberman – 19% (down from 25%)
Dick Gephardt – 14% (down from 17%)
John Kerry – 13% (down from 14%)
John Edwards – 4% (down from 7%)
Carol Moseley Braun – 4% (did not appear in the Jan. poll)
Bob Graham – 3% (down from 6%)
Howard Dean – 3% (unchanged)
Al Sharpton – 2% (unchanged)
Dennis Kucinich – <1% (did not appear in the Jan. poll) None of the above - 14% (up from 5%) Not sure - 23% (up from 20%) What do these results tell us? Not very much, I'm afraid. At this stage, most voters still aren't actively engaged in the process and strong name recognition will be more important that anything. Nevertheless, a few exclusive Carpetbagger observations: All of the "top tier" candidates have seen their support drop over the last four months, particularly Lieberman, who fell quite a bit. This would indicate that the success of the war in Iraq has done little to help those candidates who enthusiastically backed Bush's policy. Then again, the war hasn't helped the candidates opposed to the invasion, either, as Dean and Kucinich fared poorly in the poll. I'd also conclude that Edwards and Dean really need to see some movement in the polls over the next four to six months. Both are traveling extensively and are considered top tier candidates by party leaders and reporters following the campaign. For each to garner less than 5% in a national survey isn't the end of the world right now, but it's not a good sign after months of campaigning and positive media exposure. Bear in mind, Dean and Edwards were considered big winners in the fundraising primary after releasing much stronger than expected Q1 fundraising totals, yet that didn't seem to help much in this poll. The surprising number was a big jump in "none of the above," which was a volunteered answer from respondents. I don't know if Dem voters are uninspired by the current crop of candidates, hoping Hillary Clinton will get in the race, or maybe waiting for someone different to throw their hat in the ring. Regardless, the fact that 14% don't seem to like any of the current candidates must be good news to potential candidates like Wesley Clark and Gary Hart.