For the longest time, Nevada was effectively off the table when it came to presidential campaigns. From 1968 to 1988, the GOP won the state’s electoral votes every time. They weren’t particularly close, either.
As the state’s population grew quickly, however, so too did its significance and unpredictability. Now, like most of the country, Nevada is closely divided when it comes to politics.
Clinton won the state twice, but by very narrow margins. Likewise, Bush eked out a Nevada victory over Gore in 2000 by just 21,000 votes. In fact, everything about Nevada just screams “swing state.” Voter registration is essentially tied (41.5% GOP, 40.7% Dem) the congressional delegation is split (3 GOP, 2 Dem), and the state legislature is split (GOP majority in the State Senate, Dem majority in the State Assembly).
With this in mind, the LA Times had a good article today about how Nevada is one of the hardest states in the Union to predict and why a local issue may have far more pull than anything else on Election Day.
Democrats regard Nevada as highly competitive, thanks to nearly dead-even voter registration and an issue that juts up like the rugged peaks rising from the brown desert floor: Yucca Mountain.
In 2002, Bush signed legislation to establish the ridge of volcanic rock and ash — 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas — as the final resting place for 77,000 tons of the nation’s deadliest radioactive waste. Critics say that broke a promise he made late in the 2000 campaign, when he pledged that science, not politics, would guide his policy on Yucca Mountain.
The statement, crucial to Bush’s victory in the state, was vague enough that many assumed he would oppose the project.
“He lied,” said Jon Ralston, a nonpartisan political analyst in Las Vegas.
Kerry should get some leverage in this closely-divided state for opposing the Yucca Mountain dump, but whether that’s enough to pick up the state’s 5 electoral votes is unclear. The good news is demographics are also shifting towards the Dems.
The most common new arrivals to Nevada are retirees, who probably don’t care much for Bush’s ridiculous Medicare policies, and Hispanic Americans, who generally back Dem candidates.
Democrats hope to boost Latino turnout this fall, with help from friends in organized labor. The Culinary Workers Union, one of Las Vegas’ most powerful, is targeting 100 of the city’s heaviest Latino precincts, hoping to register as many as 8,000 new voters. But many are skeptical. “The Hispanic population is the sleeping giant, electorally,” said Ralston, the Las Vegas elections analyst. “To the best of my knowledge, though, they’re still sleeping and there’s no evidence to suggest that will change this time.”
Democrats and their allies seem to be counting more on a statewide ballot initiative they hope to qualify for November, which would add $1 to the state’s $5.15 minimum wage for employees lacking health insurance. “It’s a great issue to turn voters out,” said Glen Arnodo, political director for the Culinary Workers Union. “Particularly those who otherwise wouldn’t vote.”
Ultimately, however, Yucca Mountain may be the difference between Bush winning and losing.
Enter Yucca Mountain, a volatile issue for the last 20 years. Democrats hope the dispute will chip away at the president’s straight-shooting reputation and raise larger questions about his leadership, including his truthfulness about the war in Iraq.
“It’s not just an issue problem for him in Nevada, but a character problem,” said Mark Mellman, a strategist in Washington for both Kerry and Democrat Harry Reid, the state’s senior U.S. senator.
Green, the community college professor, agreed that Yucca Mountain was “a foot in the door. Now it’s up to Kerry and the other Democrats to shove the door wide open.”
Nevada’s 5 electoral votes may not seem like much, but if the race is close, they could be critically important. If you live in Nevada, expect to see a lot of ads between now and November.
Scary thought for the day: If Kerry wins every state that Gore won in 2000, plus Nevada and New Hampshire (which doesn’t seem too far fetched), the electoral college will be deadlocked at 269. The race would then go to the House in what would surely be the political circus of the century.