White House officials and supporters of the war talk about bringing democracy to Iraq with unflinching consistency. Iraqis will get a government of their choosing, we’re told. It is, as Bush tells it, their God-given right.
What amazes me, however, is how poorly prepared Bush officials seem when asked about the prospect of Iraqis choosing an Islamic theocracy. As far as I can tell, Bush and his top aides simply consider it an impossibility, like the Iraqis failing to welcome U.S. troops as “liberators,” making our occupation a “cakewalk.” It shouldn’t happen, they say, so therefore it won’t happen.
Bush, for example, was asked about what would happen if Iraqis chose an Islamic extremist regime, once offered the opportunity through democratic elections. The president was confident Iraqis would choose a democratic path.
“They’re not going to develop that. And the reason I can say that is because I’m very aware of this basic law they’re writing. They’re not going to develop that because right here in the Oval Office I sat down with Mr. Pachachi and Chalabi and al-Hakim, people from different parts of the country that have made the firm commitment, that they want a constitution eventually written that recognizes minority rights and freedom of religion.
This, in a word, was hilarious. As Slate’s William Saletan wrote a few hours Bush said this, “There you have it: The regime will be pluralistic, because Bush believes it, because nice men came to the Oval Office and told him so.”
That was three months ago. I’m afraid the answer to the question hasn’t gotten any better, probably because there is no better answer.
Colin Powell was on Meet the Press yesterday to discuss progress (or lack thereof) in Iraq. Russert asked Powell about what would happen if Iraqis “opt for an Islamic theocracy.” Powell, like Bush, was optimistic.
I don’t think that’s going to be the case…. If you talk to some of the Shia leaders, such as Mr. Sistani and others, Ayatollah Sistani, they are talking about openness and freedom. Surely everybody understands it is a nation that rests on the faith of Islam, but they also know that in order to be successful as a 21st-century country, they have to respect the rights of all individuals and not allow a purely fundamentalist regime to arise in the country. And my sensing of what the Iraqi people want is a democracy with a majority, but with respect for all the minorities, all working together to create the kind of country they’ll be proud of.
Again, this is cold comfort. Powell doesn’t “think” Iraq will become a theocracy because he “senses” that the people want a democracy.
Hope is not a plan. This is the same White House who “thought” Iraq was an imminent threat with weapons of mass destruction and “sensed” we’d be welcomed with open arms.
In the same interview, Powell effectively conceded that we could find Iraq under the rule of an Iranian-style theocracy once open elections are held. He said, “We will have to accept what the Iraqi people decide upon.”
Call me cynical, but I don’t believe him. I just can’t imagine the Bush administration accepting a result in which Iraq becomes Iran West.