Let’s see, the Dems have wrapped up the “soccer mom” vote, Bush is slowly losing some of the “gun vote,” and the “military vote” is up for grabs. But, no matter what, Bush can count on the “tobacco vote,” right? Wrong.
A campaign swing comment by President Bush opposing a buyout for hard-pressed tobacco growers has set off a political firestorm in the generally Republican states where relief for the farmers is a potent political issue.
Tobacco state lawmakers from his own party responded with confusion and anger to Bush’s comments, which they said took them by surprise.
[…]
“I’ve heard from any number of good Republicans who said they’ll either stay home or vote Democrat in the fall if the White House doesn’t change its position,” said Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. (R-Va.) on Friday. “It’s critical for the White House to move fast.”
This may sound like an obscure farming policy, but it has the opportunity to influence the presidential election in a big way.
Here’s the deal: 70 years ago, the government created a quota system to regulate tobacco production. More recently, however, companies have found it cheaper and easier to grow tobacco overseas, and in the process, push many tobacco farmers out of business.
The farmers, as well as most politicians in the South, support a proposal for a buyout that would help growers and eliminate the quota system altogether. In exchange, tobacco growers have said they would accept FDA regulation of their product. Republicans support the deal, as do most Dems running south of the Mason-Dixon line and north of Orlando.
Bush, meanwhile, opposes the buyout. No one seems to know why, but regardless, there will likely be political consequences.
Bush made his comments in Ohio earlier this month in response to a general question about tobacco and regulation. Although many in his party strongly support the tobacco grower buyout, the president said he did not.
“They’ve got the quota system in place — the allotment system — and I don’t think that needs to be changed,” Bush said.
To put it mildly, this is not a popular decision in rural areas throughout Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Keith Parrish, a tobacco grower from eastern North Carolina and chief executive officer of the National Tobacco Growers Association, which represents the state grower associations, said the growers’ response to Bush’s comments has been broadly negative.
“I’ve been up to Washington many times to discuss the grower problems, and we were told this issue was on [the president’s] radar screen,” Parrish said. “We were encouraged.
“Now growers have a very different feeling,” he said. “Democrats are making statements that this needs to happen, and growers are watching and will vote depending on who they think will bring this thing home.”
Kay Fisher, another North Carolina tobacco grower, was more blunt in her reaction to Bush’s statement. “Right now, we feel totally let down,” she said.
Amazingly, even some Republican candidates in these states are distancing themselves from Bush because of this. Rep. Richard Burr (R), a Senate candidate in NC, said he was “mad” about the president’s position and said Bush is “clearly wrong.”
Bush’s stated position was, however, welcome news to one person: John Kerry.
This isn’t a controversy in which traditional GOP voters are mad because Bush is adopting the Dem position; Kerry has the opposite position and is far more in line with the farmers’ concerns.
Their concerns sharpened last week when presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) jumped into the fray by saying in Kentucky that he supports the buyout. He said tobacco grower assistance is essential, along with passage of a bill to give the Food and Drug Administration regulatory authority over tobacco products.
Kerry said he supports twinning the two bills — a proposal that failed in Congress last year but was widely discussed as the only way to eventually get either one passed.
[…]
Bush’s apparent rejection of a buyout presented Kerry with an opportunity. “Last week, George Bush said the current tobacco quota system is fine and didn’t need to be changed, a surprising view considering the broad support for both a buyout and FDA regulation of cigarette manufacturing,” said Kerry spokesman Phil Singer. “John Kerry, who supported tobacco buyout legislation in 1998, disagrees. He believes a quota buyout of tobacco farmers and quota owners is important for rural farmers throughout the South and is encouraged by ongoing tobacco buyout negotiations in Congress.”
So, will Bush flip-flop on this? For right now, no.
Asked Friday whether the White House intended to clarify Bush’s comments, spokesman Trent Duffy said, “We have nothing to add to what he said.”
A poll in March showed Bush’s lead over Kerry in North Carolina at just seven points. In Tennessee earlier in the spring, the lead was just four points.
I suspect Karl Rove, I mean Bush, will have no choice but to reverse course on this. It’s just too big a risk. In the meantime, Kerry will enjoy a rare opportunity to tell Southern voters how he, and not Bush, shares their values and priorities.