Stop me if you’ve heard this one…. Two new national polls were released yesterday, both showing Bush’s support falling to all-time lows. Repetitious? Yes, but true nevertheless.
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush’s approval rating falling to 47%. The same poll showed Kerry with a slim general election lead over Bush, 49% to 47%.
Similarly, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, which has historically shown stronger support for Bush than other polls, has Bush slipping badly. His approval rating, as with Gallup, is down to 47%. Support for his handling of Iraq, the economy, and the war on terror are down across the board. And again mirroring Gallup, Kerry leads Bush overall in a head-to-head match-up, 49% to 47%.
What’s left of Bush’s support seems to be bolstered by his popularity in the South. Looking at the internals of the Post/ABC poll, Bush’s approval rating in the South is 53%, the only region where the president enjoys majority support. (Bush is weakest in the East — 35% approve, 63% disapprove.)
But none of that is what I want to talk about. Instead, what I found really interesting is how men and women poll respondents — who usually differ significantly to create a “gender gap” — had nearly identical answers in the Post/ABC results.
Overall, when asked for their opinion of Bush’s job performance, 47% said they approve, while 50% said they disapprove. But, surprisingly, there was almost no gender gap. Among male respondents, 48% said they approve, while 50% said they disapprove. Among women, Bush did worse, but only by a little — 46% approve, 50% disapprove. The gender gap is, therefore, pretty much non-existent.
Likewise, consider the general election match-up by gender. Overall, with what’s his name included, it’s 45% Bush, 44% Kerry, 6% Nader. But the numbers are almost identical between men and women. Men favored Bush a little more (45% Bush, 43% Kerry, 7% Nader) while women favored Kerry a little more (45% Kerry, 44% Bush, 6% Nader), but the gender gap is less than two points.
Up until fairly recently, the gender gap was not only significant, it was a chasm. Throughout the 1990s, women moved into the Dem column while men, particularly white men, embraced the GOP in droves. Voter News Service exit polls showed a 19-point gender gap for House votes in 2000, slightly more than the 14-point House gender gap reported by VNS in 1998.
At the presidential level, it’s been just as big. In 1996, exit polls showed that most women voted for Bill Clinton; men more narrowly supported Bob Dole. In 2000, women backed Gore by a whopping 11 points, while men backed Bush by an equal margin.
Now, at least according to the Post/ABC data, the gap has all but disappeared. What’s happened?
I think part of the explanation is that Americans overall have started to reject Bush and his agenda. The administration is flailing badly right now, which should be fairly obvious whether you have a Y chromosome or not. There’s growing discontent among everyone that the country is on the wrong track. The issues are not gender specific and neither are the results.
But another potential factor is Kerry’s campaign making a concerted effort to expand its base. It seems to me that the gender gap may be closing, but it’s not because Bush has made strides in appealing to women. It’s the other way around; Bush has lost support among men.
Kerry, meanwhile, has gone out of his way to present himself as an alpha-male. He’s a decorated war hero, who plays hockey, windsurfs, hunts, and rides a Harley on to The Tonight Show. As Donna Brazile said recently, “The only thing he hasn’t done is sit down with a six-pack and chew tobacco with them.”
It may pay off. Kerry doesn’t have to eliminate the gender gap, he just needs it close a bit. If Kerry can compete with Bush among male voters and keep the gap within about 5 points, while maintaining Clinton- and Gore-like support among women, Kerry will win easily.
The other explanation, of course, is that the Post/ABC poll is just completely wrong. A New York Times/CBS News poll taken last month showed the gender gap alive and well.
So maybe it’s too soon to write off the gender gap altogether, but it’s worth watching in the coming months to see if this is part of a trend.