Can Congress push Bush into flip-flopping on reimportation?

Bush has been doing plenty of flip-flopping lately, but there’s one issue Bush should flip on but hasn’t yet — reimportation of prescription medication. Dems are getting close, however, to forcing his hand. If things go according to plan, it will not only be fun to watch; it could offer Kerry a club to beat Bush with from now until Election Day.

For nearly four years, Bush has done the drug industry’s bidding by blocking reimportation legislation, despite the plans’ bipartisan support and popularity among seniors. At times, the White House’s position has been a comedy of errors. Last fall, the administration directed FDA officials to stop and search a bus full of senior citizens who were on their way back from getting medicine they could afford in Canada. A few weeks earlier, Bush’s nominee to run Medicare, FDA Director Mark McClellan, announced that he would refuse to answer Senate questions about his position on reimportation as part of his confirmation hearings.

On the Hill, it’s been far less amusing. Bush aides, for example, worked with GOP leaders (and pharmaceutical industry lobbyists) to make sure the new Medicare law had no protections for Americans hoping to have access to affordable medication north of the border.

To be fair, it’s not just Bush who has stood in the way of consumer savings for medication. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has blocked proposals with almost as much zeal as Bush. I’m sure it was just a coincidence that Frist has enjoyed generous contributions from his friends in the pharmaceutical industry.

Senate Dems will need 60 votes to pass a new law allowing reimportation. The good news, it looks like they now have the votes, putting Republicans in a very tough spot on a popular issue in an election year.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers claims it has lined up the 60 votes needed to get a prescription-drug reimportation bill through the Senate, which some say could lead the White House to change its position on the controversial issue.

The legislators are leaning on Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) to call up their bill — which would allow for the reimportation of prescription drugs from Canada and selected other countries — before the July 4 recess, as the window for significant legislative activity narrows.

“We have a very good time frame,” said Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), after the group met with Frist in his Capitol office shortly before the Memorial Day recess. “We would like during the next work period to have the Senate consider” the bill. “We think we have the votes to pass it,” he said.

The House passed a measure allowing reimportation last year, thanks in large part to the work of Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.). If the Senate follows course, a bill could be on Bush’s desk in the next couple of months.

The question naturally becomes whether or not Bush will flip-flop on this. If he stays true to character, Bush will reverse course, endorse the legislation, say it was his idea all along, and then run TV ads accusing Kerry of opposing the law — even though Kerry is the leading Dem co-sponsor of the plan.

But seriously, Bush would be in a bit of a bind. If he were to veto a bi-partisan bill (his first and only veto of his presidency), Bush would be handing Kerry a powerful campaign issue that resonates across the political spectrum. If Bush flip-flopped on this, he’d have to explain why he opposed it all along and changed his mind in an election year. Perhaps more importantly, he’d anger his wealthy campaign contributors who hate reimportation and feel like they’ve sufficiently bought the president’s loyalty.

Stay tuned.