I hope it doesn’t come across as callous to consider the political implications of a man’s death. It’s an election year, the GOP’s leading icon has passed away, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to wonder aloud how this event will shape the political landscape.
I imagine the Republicans will do their level best to exploit Reagan’s passing. In fact, I’m already trying to prepare myself for the inevitable “Let’s win one for the Gipper” theme that will likely dominate the RNC. But will any of this matter?
Probably not. November is a long ways off and chances are Reagan’s death will not be a major topic of conversation five months from now. That said, it would be surprising if Bush didn’t use Reagan as a symbolic running mate, at least in the immediate future, trying to ride the wave of positive press Bush’s predecessor is now enjoying.
It is, to be sure, a strategy with risks. Cliff Schecter had a good item over the weekend noting that Bush and Reagan are probably the most conservative presidents in U.S. history, but the similarities end there.
For whatever one thought of Reagan (I personally was not a big [fan] of the majority of the domestic policies), he took personal responsibility for the Beirut barracks bombing, raised taxes when the deficit was becoming surreal and yes, he dealt with the Soviet Union, ignoring the advice of the neocon nuts of his day…like some Congressman from Wyoming named Cheney or something…
Most importantly, as I learned on my recent trip to Romania, he appealed to the very same Eastern Europeans who hold our current President in such low esteem. He didn’t lie about threats and then attack Latvia to scare Lithuania into adopting our principles. He spoke to those yearning for freedom in these countries about how things could be better.
It is a road we could have taken in the Middle East after 9/11, when sympathy for the United States was at its zenith, as opposed to the single digit approval ratings we now receive in the region because of a preemptive war based upon lies and an unbelievably botched post-war period.
The more Bush wants to emphasize his resemblance to Reagan, the more the differences become obvious. As an election strategy, this is more than flawed; it’s foolish.
This is not to say that Bush won’t enjoy a short-term benefit from Reagan’s death and funeral. Indeed, he’s already benefiting. News coverage over the weekend about Reagan minimized coverage of news that would have been unflattering to Bush. Moreover, Kerry, in a sign of class and common sense, is effectively putting his campaign on hold for a week, which obviously offers Bush valuable assistance.
But that’s this week. For the duration of the campaign, Bush aides have a difficult choice to make about just how much of Reagan can and should be exploited. As the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney noted today, even some Republicans are wary of pushing the Reagan-Bush comparison too hard, if at all.
Advisers to Mr. Bush said they had not determined how prominently Mr. Bush should identify his presidency with Mr. Reagan, whether Mr. Reagan’s image should be incorporated in Mr. Bush’s advertisements and whether Nancy Reagan might appear on Mr. Bush’s behalf in the fall.
Some Republicans said the images of a forceful Mr. Reagan giving dramatic speeches on television provided a less-than-welcome contrast with Mr. Bush’s own appearances these days, and that it was not in Mr. Bush’s interest to encourage such comparisons. That concern was illustrated on Sunday, one Republican said, by televised images of Mr. Reagan’s riveting speech in Normandy commemorating D-Day in 1984, followed by Mr. Bush’s address at a similar ceremony on Sunday.
“Reagan showed what high stature that a president can have — and my fear is that Bush will look diminished by comparison,” said one Republican sympathetic to Mr. Bush, who did not want to be quoted by name criticizing the president.
Another senior Republican expressed concern that by identifying too closely with Mr. Reagan, Mr. Bush risked running a campaign that looked to the past, which this adviser described as a recipe for a loss.
Alas, the GOP smear machine already came up with its initial strategy in taking advantage of Reagan nostalgia: remind voters that John Kerry and Ronald Reagan were not on the same side in the ’80s.
Aides to Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry said they did not want to do anything that would make it appear that they were exploiting the news of Mr. Reagan’s death. But in one sign of what may lie ahead, Republicans circulated old quotes from Mr. Kerry in which he criticized Mr. Reagan.
These guys just never stop, not even to mourn.