Let’s stipulate from the outset that the perfect running mate for John Kerry doesn’t exist. All of the rumored possibilities on the short list have strengths and some weaknesses; the trick is finding the one with the fewest and least damaging flaws.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D), who appears to be one of the leading candidates for the job and the only sitting governor on the short list, had his first bit of bad news today. The AP is reporting that he signed an English-only bill into law in Iowa, which in turn could diminish the ticket’s appeal in the Latino community.
Gov. Tom Vilsack, a potential vice presidential candidate, signed a measure two years ago declaring English the state’s official language. That could hurt his chances of joining the Democratic ticket.
Iowa’s English-only measure and dozens like it nationwide draw virtually unanimous and vehement opposition from Hispanics, an important Democratic constituency, who view them as thinly veiled racism. Hispanics, the nation’s largest and fastest-growing minority group, are being eagerly courted by Democrat John Kerry and President Bush.
How big a problem is this? From where I sit, it could be quite significant. Every potential running mate is going to have a knock against him (or her), but angering Hispanic voters is a major obstacle.
Hispanics are one of the key, if not the key, demographic constituency this year, particularly in southwestern states such as Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada. Kerry enjoys their support in most polls, but the Bush campaign is committed to making in roads.
The real problem for Vilsack, in my opinion, is how poorly his position contrasts with Bush’s.
When Vilsack signed the English-only law, it wasn’t necessarily because he fully supported it. The measure was backed by GOP majorities in the Iowa legislature and enjoyed popular support in statewide polls. Vilsack hesitated, but agreed to sign the largely-symbolic legislation in exchange for a $1 million increase for programs to teach English as a second language in Iowa’s public schools.
Vilsack’s decision was predictably unpopular among the state’s largest minority group, a fact that Kerry’s campaign is no doubt aware of.
Bush, meanwhile, is to Vilsack’s left on the issue. As Texas governor, Bush resisted his own party’s efforts to pass English-only laws and opposed a provision in the state’s GOP platform insisting that English be the state’s “official language.”
Complicating matters, when Bush was campaigning for president in Iowa in 1999, he emphasized his opposition to English-only, which at the time, had narrowly failed to pass the Iowa legislature.
“I support English-plus, not English-only,” Bush said. “English-only says to me that if Hispanic happens to be your heritage, you’re not part of the process.”
And that’s the problem for Vilsack. If Bush and Cheney were on record holding the same position on English-only, I think this would be far less damaging. How could Bush attack Kerry’s running mate for taking the same position on an issue that he does?
But in light of Bush’s opposition to the policy, Vilsack’s record poses a significant political problem. Every Spanish-language ad BC04 runs for the rest of the year will highlight the fact that the president opposes English-only — but Kerry’s running mate doesn’t.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this alone knocks Vilsack off the short list.