On Feb. 6, CNN’s Inside Politics had an item about job losses under the Bush administration, which emphasized the fact that this administration had the worst record of any president in 70 years. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao suggested we’re focusing on the wrong numbers.
Judy Woodruff: “I want to cite the one economic analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston. He said, these are his words, quote, ‘very disappointing; we’re not getting the jobs to replace the stimulus in the economy which will fade once the first quarter ends.’ Another economist said, ‘It’s the weakest job-creation rate relative to economic growth on record.'”
Elaine Chao: “Well, the stock market is, after all, the final arbiter.”
I have a hunch Chao might regret having said that. Not only did it suggest a certain callousness towards all of the families suffering through a weak “recovery,” it also brought attention to yet another statistic the White House may want to avoid.
On Friday, January 19, 2001, the Dow Jones closed at 10,732.46. It was the last day of Clinton’s presidency. As I write this, the Dow is about 260 points lower now than it was when Bush was inaugurated. If Chao is right, and the market is the “final arbiter,” Bush still has some explaining to do.
In fact, while many realize that Bush’s job creation record is the worst in 70 years, it’s easy to forget that stock market performance under Bush is also the worst of any president in 70 years.
Just for the sake of comparison, the stock market went up 148% under Reagan. Under Clinton, it grew 187%. Bush only has one term under his belt, but at -2% so far, he has a long way to go.
Of course, since Republican administrations consistently have under-performed Democratic administrations on stock market growth, Bush’s troubles shouldn’t be a big surprise, but I doubt many expected the market to do this poorly over a four-year stretch.