We’ve been hearing all week that June’s employment numbers were going to be impressive, bolstering the White House’s arguments about Bush’s stewardship of the economy and hurting John Kerry’s chances of using Bush’s job numbers against him in the campaign.
Instead, today we have bad news for the economy, bad news for workers, bad news for Bush, and good news for Kerry.
Economists predicted a rise of at least 250,000 new jobs last month. It’d still be far short of the White House’s predictions in the wake of its third major tax cut, but it would nevertheless show consistent and relatively steady growth in the job sector. Instead, the economy produced less than half the number expected.
Employment growth slowed in June, as the government reported 112,000 new jobs in the U.S. economy last month, falling well short of Wall Street forecasts.
The gain was about half of May’s revised gain of 235,000 jobs, and marked the weakest jobs report since February after three straight strong reports. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a gain of 250,000 jobs in the month.
Moreover, the Labor Department revised April’s and May’s number downward, because they weren’t as strong as had previously been reported.
“I’m not ready to panic,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. “But clearly the job market is not as strong as we initially thought.”
And speaking of weak job numbers, Slate’s Daniel Gross had an item earlier this week, before June’s feeble growth was reported, explaining how the nation’s labor market is still performing poorly — and it may “still be deteriorating” — Bush’s rhetoric not withstanding.
The economic numbers show a persistent underutilization of America’s greatest asset — its workforce. The addition of 1.4 million jobs in 10 months is paltry by historical standards, and given the size of today’s potential workforce, it’s anemic. All the happy talk in the world can’t hide that.
I don’t imagine we’ll be hearing much in the way of “happy talk” out of the White House today.
Update: The fine folks at the Economic Policy Institute prepared a helpful chart to show how well actual job growth has fared against Bush’s promises about job growth after his latest tax cut became law.
