It’s a cliché because it’s true: the presidential election will probably come down to Florida. And for the time being, Florida is looking pretty good for John Kerry.
The two big non-partisan polls in the state, conducted after the Dems’ convention, are showing Kerry’s lead in the ultimate swing state getting bigger. Quinnipiac says Kerry is up by six (47-41), while the American Research Group has Kerry up by seven (50-43).
Moreover, as I’ve mentioned on repeated occasions, Cuban-American resentment over Bush’s new policy on travel and remittances to Cuba appears to be taking its toll on Bush’s popularity with a traditionally solid GOP constituency.
And best of all, according the St. Petersburg Times’ Adam Smith, Kerry and his supporters are just acting like they want it more.
President Bush’s prospects in Florida are looking increasingly shaky.
Barely 80 days before election day, signs abound that Democrats are outperforming Republicans in the state Bush virtually has to win to gain another term in the White House.
Republicans had vowed an unprecedented voter registration program, but Democrats are far outpacing them in registration gains.
Democrats have far more operatives on the ground, thanks largely to well-funded liberal organizations aggressively working to mobilize John Kerry supporters.
According to Smith, Bush’s precarious hold on the voters of Florida is causing widespread consternation among GOP leaders.
Not only does Bush look vulnerable in must-win Florida, they say, at the very least he could be forced to divert resources here that may be needed elsewhere.
“Not only is Florida becoming a problem for the campaign but it could make some Southern border states that are usually safely Republican slip into competitive mode in the last two to three weeks of the campaign,” said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery, a former strategist for Newt Gingrich. “If Bush loses Florida, it’s lights out.”
The most encouraging news from Smith’s analysis dealt with pure numbers. When it comes to Florida, Kerry and his supporters are pulling out all of the stops.
* Visits — Kerry has spent 13 days in the state since March; Bush has spent eight since January.
* Paid staffers — There are 45 paid Dem staffers in the state, which will grow to about 60 this week and reach 125 by the end of September.
* Kerry HQs — Seven Kerry campaign offices are now open — including in Tampa and Pinellas Park — and four more will be open within two weeks.
* Outside help — America Coming Together has almost 300 paid staffers working in Florida and will spend $10 million on the state.
* Voter registration — Through June, Democrats added 129,423 voters to their roll, compared to 75,132 for Republicans and 122,769 registered to neither party.
What’s less clear is what kind of political impact, if any, Hurricane Charley will have on the race. In 1992, three months before the election, Bush was slow to react to the devastation caused by Hurricane Andrew. When he did arrive on the scene, he departed Air Force One with a big wave and ear-to-ear smile that led most in the state to believe he considered the visit a campaign stop. This Bush is learning from those mistakes, but whether it will translate into votes remains to be seen.
One thing is for sure, though — there’s simply no way the Bush campaign will let Florida slip away without a fight. Jeb Bush is already doing his part — trying to strip as many African Americans from the voter rolls as he can — so the Dems will have plenty of work to do.